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Saturday, June 30, 2007

Pinchuk’s Eurotalk

"Я не впевнений, що в кінці дороги євроінтеграції ми повинні вступити до ЄС, але ми повинні пройти цей шлях".

“I’m not sure that having come to the end of the EU integration road, we should join the EU, yet go to the distance we should.”

"Без цієї моркви - вступу до ЄС – неможливо примусити провести реформи в Україні", - додав Пінчук”.

“Without this carrot — that is, EU accession — it would be impossible to pass reform in Ukraine.”

“Ми будемо такі круті, що самі вибиратимемо, з ким об’єднуватися".

“[Once we’re there] we’ll be so cool that it will be up to us to choose who to associate with.”

"Його роль у євроінтеграції України дуже важлива. Він позитивно ставиться до України і за вчорашній день воно покращилося"

“His [Schröder’s] role in Ukraine’s EU integration is very important. He is positive on Ukraine, and since yesterday his stance has improved.”

"Я вважаю Партію регіонів прихильником європейської інтеграції. Вони це багаторазово декларували, але я особисто це відчуваю і в цьому переконаний".

“I consider the Party of Regions a supporter of [Ukraine’s] EU integration. They have repeatedly stated that, but I personally feel it and am convinced of it.”



elmer said...


Just like the Party of Regions.

And all the Elton John concerts in the world will not change that.

Help me, please, figure this out.

Why would anyone vote for the Party of Regions?

They have done absolutely nothing for the people of Ukraine - not a darn thing.

Taras said...

Well, I’d rather refer this metaphysical question to Paul Manafort:)

My own answer would be: Ask not what the Party of Regions can do for you — ask what you can do for the Party of Regions:)

Anonymous said...

Why would they vote for PoR?

Because they want to vote for them and not for anyone else.

Sometimes a vote for is actually a vote against. Why would they be against the 'orangists'? Easy ans. - lost two years of Yush's presidency and against Yulia who is very much seen as a 'crook'. Weakness is not attractive in Ukraine while strength is a major pull.

And sometimes it is GIGO - 'garbage in, garbage out'. New ads for Yanu for elections highlight him as a leader on the world stage (mtg. Merkel, at the NYSE, etc.)most certainly not as a dear friend of Putin. Let's face it the public is easily fooled and manipulated.

And au contraire they have done for the people of Ukraine - visit the new train stations in the East and the EU standard express train service out of service. They have done alot for their voters while others have not.


Taras said...

Welcome back, Luida:)!

Voting habits in Ukraine can be summed up as culture-centered and blinders-on. That Yanukovych has a base in eastern Ukraine due to its heavily Russified, Soviet-cultured populace requires no further explanation.

Swing voters make up a small percentage, but their decisions can alter the balance of power, and for a good reason. Short of a pork barrel parade, which merely constitutes an indexation rather than a golden shower, the Yanukovych cabinet has nothing to bring to the table.

Aware that taking everyone’s support for granted can backfire, Yanukovych strategists have reinforced their boastful rhetoric with fear appeals meant to galvanize the audience. It’s funny how they tout Yanukovych as Ukraine's only hope, using a Terminator-like voice-over that warns of the evil of political instability, a SkyNet-like bugaboo.

A synonym for civil unrest, political instability has the reputation of being an investment killer across the globe. Ukraine’s crisis, however, has not affected the economy, which in Q1-2 expanded at an annual rate of 7.9 percent.

This paradox makes the Orange and Blue camps ideologically inverse. Under the Orange cabinets, GDP growth did not exceed 3 percent, and yet Ukrainians’ incomes rose 20 percent. With Yanukovych at the helm, it’s the other way around by a factor of 2+.

Strangely enough, the stronger the economy, the weaker the earnings. That’s the essence of “stabilnist” — Yanukovych’s dirty little secret. Cronyism notwithstanding, the Orange governments adhered to healthier income redistribution policies.

Should we take your infrastructure comparison as a sarcasm;)? Well, I count on the Euro 2012 to bridge the EU/Ukraine gap a little.

Anonymous said...

A little about political ads.

BYuT's ads - strong visuals with the symbolic white and heart repeating that this political party did not betray anyone or its ideals. It remained above the fray in the war for power and that right (truth, justice) will overcome. But this will not convince anyone in the East that Yulia is not the 'gas princess' but the ad will do well to convince people in the western parts of Ukraine which will erode into NU's numbers. Interesting that this is not going after the eastern voters but shows that the war continues bet. the orange forces. Medium strong ad.

NU's ads - Yushchenko basicly apologizing for it being a disaster and shifting blame to BYuT (strong visual of Yulia pushing multiple voting buttons in Rada - hint, hint.) But overall as the ad is basicly Yush talking which can put even his most ardent supporters to sleep, it is not good. And images of OR do not bring people together but remind them of what could and should have been. btw why does Yush have to point out that there will be no more Universals(?) - overall a weak ad.


PS overall PoR's ads are the strongest in their emotional response (using fear and scare tactics) and their strong punches to est. Yanu as a leader.

Taras said...

This will be a blame-thy-foe campaign in which each party will claim credit and assign blame at its own convenience.

Each contestant will focus on its own folks and will employ operant conditioning to generate repeat purchase. Relatively little effort will be made to seek converts on foreign territory.

Regionalists will throw a pork barrel party and will put a Freddy Krueger mask on the Orange camp, decrying nestabilnist and mystifying its socially destructive power. Facts and figures will be manipulated at full scale.

BYuTies and NSNUzers will thump their chests for a job well done. Each will vie for a bigger slice of the Orange pie, banking on its unique Promethean role in bringing about the elections.

At the core is the question of who stays and who leaves, who comes and who goes, which will determine the makeup of the new parliament and cabinet. Who knows what nasty surprises await us.

Anonymous said...

It is not often, but when it does happen it is the real goods - I agree with Hanna Herman, in her statements that "Parliamentary Deputy Hanna Herman of the Party of Regions is forecasting that the Our Ukraine-People’s Self Defense (Narodna Samooborona) bloc will compete with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc for the same voters following the appointment of the People’s Self-Defense public movement’s leader Yurii Lutsenko as the leader of the bloc."

(the rest is garbage imho, but there is truth in that the two former allies NU and BYuT are in a 'war' over the same voters with neither side making inroads into what would be traditionally considered PoR/SPU/CPU voters. Why no attack/penetration into the other side but a fight for dominance in already est. areas? Odd when there is quite a number of undecided still out there.)


Taras said...

Luida, you’re absolutely right. Every time the election confetti falls, the Oranges are too busy struggling for power rather than for the hearts and minds of Ukrainians.

This infighting cannibalizes their ratings and creates a complete lack of strategy for eastern Ukraine, a region known for its rich deposits of Soviet-era propaganda.

That brings us to the elixir of prosperity that is so carefully guarded by the local leprechauns.

Anonymous said...

agree with the following -
"Mr. Fesenko expects that Our Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) will seriously compete for the second place because it is about the right to premiership and the key role in formation of a coalition."

But we already wrote about this, so no surprises there.

disagree with the following -
"Strange as it may seem, the turnout is expected to be at least 50%, i.e. there is no risk of election disruption."

I am going to predict that voter turnout will actually will be very high. (I know this puts me way in the minority but this is how I am placing my bet and I am sticking to it.)


Taras said...

Hey, what makes you think you’re in the minority?:) I’m just as optimistic on the issue as you are. After all, Ukraine is not America, right? (I hope Kuchma's writing genius does not object:)))

As Ukraine’s political temperature rises after vacation season, voter turnout will reach at least 70 percent and, quite conceivably, as high as 80 percent. That’s my estimate:)

elmer said...

look, if there were MORE parties on the pro-democratic side running, there would be reason to worry.

And it would be ideal if there was truly one huge pro-democratic megabloc - but there are 2.

And both Lutsenko and Tymo have gone deep into Donetsk and eastern Ukraine. And look at how many people Lutsenko attracted at his meetings in eastern Ukraine - far greater than anything the blue-whites could cobble together.

So I think that both of them have been making huge inroads into Donetsk mafia territory. Which is why they are TERRIFIED of elections, why Kuchma is putting out a doomsday scenario about an Orange victory, and why the Party of Regions is spewing forth polls every single day, showing that there is no reason to vote, the Donetsk mafia has already won the election.

Highly suspect.

They are resorting to trying to brain-wash the people in accordance with bogus polls.

Here's the problem - 19 million people on the public sector payroll.

Do they have a truly free vote?

Forget about Ukraine's version of the "yellow dog Democrats" (those were Southern Democrats who were so named, because it was said that even if a yellow dog was a candidate on the Democratic side, they would vote for the yellow dog).

There are only about 19% of those - you know who I'm talking about.

Lutsenko and Tymo are both very energetic, with very energetic supporters.

And Yushchenko has shown very clearly what is at stake.

Stanik's mom got $12 million.

For what?

Where is your $12 million?

Anonymous said...

My views on the pro-democratic megablocks is that it is inaccurate to label them as such - the megablocks are NUNS (for want of a better acronym, I defer to LEvko)(and this NUNS block is basicly pro-Yushchenko) and BYuT (basicly pro-Tymoshenko.) And each are for the service of their chosen leader. (NOT FOR DEMOCRACY.)Let me highlight that again - the megablocks stand to elect their own people not for the foundations of democracy. If the aims such coincide with such - so be it but in numerous, they have not and party/personal interests have prevailed.

And in having two VERY DIFFERENT blocks - voters are being split and the 'same' voters are being pursued.

And penetration into the East is recent (only in the past few months), which is why voter numbers for PoR have not changed in those areas since 2004.

and that's my 5 kopeks.


Taras said...

Notice how quietly the Stanik Affair has died. It must have been an X-file. Stabilnist is out there.

Tymo’s Dnipropetrovsk roots give her a strong lead over Lutsenko in the exploration of the East. Even so, I remain skeptical of any breakthroughs until I see them.

What worries me most is Yush’s persistent flirtations with the idea of a “Big Three” coalition.

While this may seem like a much-needed compromise, it will do Ukraine no good. If Tymo accepts the offer — pressed by her opposition-averse midcap lyubi druzi — that will mean zero opposition in this country. (I pray her PMania won’t let her take a back seat to Yanuk.)

But in case she says yes, we’ll end up in a pool of sharks who will make love to each other while feeding off our Ukrainian Dream. They’ll have us celebrating Maidan’s third anniversary with Bryan Adams, Rod Stewart, and Sting singing “Let’s make it all for one and all for dough.” Remember the song?:)

Under this scenario — call it marriage by arrangement or rainbow coalition — few Ukrainians should expect to find the pot of gold that will color their lives. Instead, standing in the pouring rain of stabilnist, they will bleed whatever good colors their lives had.

Taras said...

I accept your five kopecks, Luida:)

The two big Oranges are out on their own, taking care of number one. The Blue ones are a monolith of equal firepower.

Together, they make up a reality show that promises a wealth of ugly déjà-vus.

Anonymous said...

The Stanik incident highlights something which is inc. spoken about - what is the point of it all? Ukraine is praised for a free press. Okay (though I would file it under semi-or almost free because of conc. of owners whose interests coincide with owning and manuevering the media.)

But so be it. Free press in Ukraine. And so a story is uncovered about scandal, corruption, money, ... = Stanik. And so what??? NOTHING happens. Not even a token investigation or case is opened against her. And that is the sad reality. Journalists may be in fear of their lives for reporting or investigating but the crooks have no fear at all of prosecution. At all.

While in Poland = recent scandal has led to a politician being fired and even may end up in new elections.


Anonymous said...

"As Ukraine’s political temperature rises after vacation season, voter turnout will reach at least 70 percent and, quite conceivably, as high as 80 percent. That’s my estimate:)"

Not bad - Taras, according to a recently released poll it will be around 80%.

Which does not surprise me at all. Ukrainians are NOT apathetic and very much want to go vote even if it is against all. (Which should make Serduchka a deputy.


Anonymous said...

This not only has the transcript but also asks the ques. who? and why? taped the conversation bet. Yushchenko and Yulia.


elmer said...

About Stanik and the Stanik affair and nothing happening

Good point - except for one thing.

That is what elections are about.

If I were Yulia, or Lutsenko, every chance I got I would be pointing out Stanik's mother.

And another thing -

wonder of wonders!

They have "reconsidered" criminal prosecution of "saldat" Kalashnikav, and it looks like he may be prosecuted after all.

As you recall, he was the one who beat up the journalists and stole their video tapes - recorded on video tape.

There was an initial decision NOT to procecute him.

Surely people in Ukraine can figure out why Stanik's mom got $12 million, and which party Stanik is affiliated with.

Taras said...


Isn’t it funny how Kalashnikov’s prosecution has coincided with Stanik’s reinstatement?:)

What do you make of this revolving door?

I bet both will walk, once PoRNUNS sets in.