From Russia with love: a collection of Russian military fiction:
The Ukrainian Front
by Fiodor Berezin (left)
The Epoch of the Stillborn
by Gleb Bobrov (right)
After the Battle — Ukraine
The Crushed Trident
by Georgiy Savitskiy (left)
The Undoing of the Project (right)
by Maxim Kalashnikov, Sergei Buntovskiy
As Obama stimulates Putin’s reset button, the Kremlin’s propaganda machine is laying the groundwork for Operation Barbierossa (with Tymoshenko/Yanukovych as Barbie).
Who draws the first blood? Ukraine does. Any problems with that?
Remember: From the Soviet point of view, Finland started the Winter War; from the Nazi point of view, Poland started WW II.
Below are two fact-meets-fantasy scenarios outlined in a Russian television program, in which Ukraine gets repeatedly called “republic”— Soviet-style. (Since independence, Ukraine has no republic in its official name.)
Anti-Russian western Ukrainian troops surge into Crimea like Nazis to terrorize the local Russian population. Kyiv cracks down on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, cutting off communications. Moscow sends in reinforcements from the neighboring Russian region of Kuban. Kyiv sends in reinforcements from neighboring Ukrainian oblasts.
Russia: Black Sea Fleet troops, 14,000 + Novorossiysk marines, 4,000 + Kuban infantry, 5,000
Ukraine: Kerch Mechanized and Simferopol Artillery Brigade, 5,000 + two brigades from Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolayiv, 10,000 + special forces, 4,000
Russia leads in troops and warships; Ukraine leads in air defense: more than 100 SAM systems + more than 200 interceptor aircraft (“It’s a lot for the not-so-large territory of the republic.”)
Romania, Poland and Hungary step in “to support Yushchenko.” A NATO task force (10 warships) based in Poti and Batumi prepares to engage the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Turkey foments Crimean Tatar irredentism. (Kyiv supports Crimean Tatars in land conflicts and squatting against the Russian population of Crimea.)
If Russia loses, Crimea will follow in Kosovo's footsteps, with the establishment of a pro-Ukrainian puppet regime supported by U.S. Navy bases. Turkey will like it. Projected war outbreak: Early 2010 (“to retain power, Viktor Yushchenko may opt for such provocations”).
“Another scenario of developments is connected with another former Soviet republic: Georgia. If military conflict flares up on its territory again, it will mark the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine.”
Background: regular Ukraine-NATO military exercises + Ukraine’s arms supplies to Georgia
If Ukraine loses, the country will fall apart. Russia will claim Crimea, along with the right to keep its Black Sea Fleet after the rental agreement expires in 2017. (The victory will be offset by international isolation and domestic crisis).
If Russia loses, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will leave Sevastopol and there will be no more Russian influence in Crimea.
The news anchor's caveat: Make no mistake, according to international norms, Crimea is an integral part of Ukraine and I’m convinced that Russia will never fight for this territory. But Ukrainian politics of the last few years suggests that there are still some who are eager to provoke a conflict in the hope of the international community’s intervention, forgetful of the fact that managed conflicts are always fraught with heavy bloodshed. And there are always those willing to do the fighting. In fact, some Ukrainians, for years, have been fighting Russia, literally, and they’re not shy about it.Background: UNA-UNSO’s involvement in Abkhazia, Chechnya and South Ossetia; Yushchenko’s decree celebrating “the centennial of Roman Shukhevych [1907-1950],” an officer of the SS, which killed “about 250,000 Jews, 1,000,000 Ukrainians, 500,000 Poles, 100,000 people of other ethnicities.”
Well, well, well. Does Shukhevych’s short-lived collaboration with Nazi Germany equal long-standing Soviet-Nazi cooperation? How does the training of Wehrmacht tank crews and Luftwaffe pilots (in Kazan and in Lipetsk respectively) compare to Shukhevych's resume?
What about the mustached blessing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? Of course, Ukraine gained in territory — populated mainly by Ukrainians — and lost 7,000,000 lives. Fair enough by the Kremlin's standards, right?
Now, why in the world would Yushchenko want to start a war with Russia? To give Russia the pretext for partitioning Ukraine?
Would Obama drop the reset button and rush to Ukraine’s defense should Russia start the war — much less should Ukraine start the war?