Так! Янукович (Yes to Yanukovych!)
Yushchenko “Unites” Ukraine, Unnerves His Voters

It may sound rather alarming, but Mendelssohn’s “Wedding March” and Chopin’s “Funeral March” have never been so close. In the dead of the night August 3, 2006, President Yushchenko decided to commission into MP service the zombie he had tried to ward off two summers ago. By performing this Faustian rite of passage, Yushy became a partner in the betrayal of people who had catapulted him into power. He thus signed his own death certificate, as far his reelection chances are concerned.

Hiding behind the lofty “unite Ukraine” rationalization, he now prides himself on having sweetened the pill of the Yanuke appointment with a bunch of concessions.

These plain-vanilla concessions include subscription to the NATO membership action plan and recognition of Ukrainian as the official language. (Should we assume that the likes of MP Vasyl Tsushko (SPU), who uttered not a word of Ukrainian during the talks, will be held in contempt of the Verkhovna Rada? And which of the two prospects is less remote — man landing on Mars or Ukraine landing in NATO under Yanukovych the PM?)

Having ratified Yushchenko’s much-fetishized Universal, the Regs put the blinders on the public and laid the ground for the Snoozers’ to walk the aisle. Likewise, they newly-weds have sugarcoated their lovechild the Coalition of National Unity. (Suggested motto: “Cheaters and liars of Ukraine, unite.”)

If that’s how they want to market it, then why had their “unicorn” left underpenetrated a total of 14 oblasts, whose 25 to 45 percent of voters supported BYuT? Are these people somehow alien or opposed to the idea of uniting Ukraine in terms of values? And had those 3 Western oblasts, deeply wounded by Soviet oppression, given their hearts to NSNU only to have them urinated on by the Kremlin’s pets?

This leads us to believe that the parties to the Universal of National Unity had their minds united around some other set of values, namely increasing the value of their possessions. In this case, geography has little to do with it. It’s all about the green — “green” as in cash. Yanushchenko may peddle their unification vaudeville all they want, but savvy consumers won’t but it.

Of course, the truth will not hit home until fall descends on Ukraine and the public comes home from vacations. It is then that couch potatoes will be able to observe the Yanuke Cabinet in dance.

What a leap of faith: throwing yourself in the arms of those whom you had accused of plotting your murder and stealing the election! Boy will you pay for you gutless decision when the next election comes. Tymo the “Lone Ranger” will surely take your Boys' Club on.

If Yushy sincerely hopes that, with his Snoozers “in” and watching things closely, the Regs will behave, he is seriously mistaken. “Let bygones be bygones” doesn’t work that way. Your "just-married" SUV will do Ukraine no good because it comes straight from the boulevard of broken promises. Don’t we know what their word is worth, Mr. Yushchenko?

You became President by being right about everything that was wrong with this country. And now you are the one who stepped to the wrong side — and the people have the eyes to see. In that sense, maybe you have no right to be President anymore. Ганьба!

Roundtable Talks Stall on Rough Edges and Soft Utopianism

In a series of powwows continuing well into night, President Yushchenko and parliamentary leaders are toiling to put a handle on a Pandora’s Box of disputes arising from the newly-emerged “anticrisis” coalition.

A cadre of guest speakers attended the opening session, including the founding fathers of Ukrainian democracy such as Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine’s first President (1991-94), and Ivan Plyushch, Speaker of the VR (1991-94). Also present were renowned poets and academics.

Former President Kuchma was conspicuous by his absence. Kuchma fans watching the live broadcast surely missed out on all the fun he would bring to it. After being a decade of being a captive audience to the genius of Kuchma’s eloquence and insightfulness, the loss they’ve felt is irreparable. Sad enough, except for occasional sightings, the retired pastor seems to shun his quondam parish.

The “salt of the earth” took turns in speaking their minds and troubleshooting hot issues. Each belted a song of his own, replete with barbs and rambling lectures.
Naturally, opinions ranged between two poles. Whether he likes it or not, the President should take the “anticrisis” coalition as a given argued the pro-acceptance school of thought. In contrast, the pro-abstinence school of thought suggested that the President disband Parliament. As expected, prospective membership in NATO and the status of the Russian language became instant sticking points.

Yushchenko stood his ground on these key issues, projecting an image of a tough negotiator. Tymo cruised around in a combative mood, while Yanuke, navigated the conciliatory harbor. Later, his fellow Regs bewailed Yushchenko’s “bait-and-switch” tactics. They expressed disappointment over the President’s demands, which they consider grossly out of proportion with NSNU’s election score. Also, the pointed out that the resolution being drafted, known as the Universal of National Unity, makes no mention of Yanukovych’s Premiership. The Universal owes its name to a series of four declarations (Universals) issued by the government of the UNR, the short-lived independent Ukrainian state squashed by Lenin.

Needless to say, the show sent Maidaners wondering what this was all about. A desensitization infomercial from Yushchenko’s PR shamans? A preamble to the NSNU-PRU prenup agreement, under the guise of piecing together the East and the West? Now that Washington’s eyes are glued to the war between Israel and Lebanon, could it be just an eyewash meant to sweet-talk the Orange audience into believing that this is how things should be?

Where does the government-opposition fault line lie? Is it in terms of issues, in terms of the election results, or in terms of fear of losing power? If NSNU’s joining the “anticrisis” coalition is about national unity, then why does it split the Orange Revolution — the very engine that brought NSNU to power? Two steps forward, three steps back. Welcome to the schizophrenic world of the Orange Counter-Revolution.

Anyway, the talks will resume Tuesday, August 1. This day will mark the 15th anniversary of the notorious “Chicken Kiev” address Bush Sr. delivered during his visit to the capital of then Soviet Ukraine. For those who vaguely remember it, listen to this: “Freedom is not the same as independence; Americans will not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism." Can anybody imagine that this piece Moscow-centric garbage that flies in the face of Wilsonianism actually came from the pen of Condi Rice?

Karmically speaking, the Universal exemplifies the worst of branding choices, considering how the UNR had fared. Why not call it the Universal of National Utopia? The UNR government, run by Socialists, had naively relied on the assumption that the dictatorship of the proletariat would not attack a socialist democracy.

Ukraine remains one of the few nations in the democratic universe where the opposition and the government can’t settle their identities. The Snoozes (NSNU) seem to be lost in the Peter Pan-like fantasy of squaring the circle, keeping the West while shacking up with the PRU. It’s this misguided dreaming, not the Regs’ (Regionalists) dominance itself, that makes this country vulnerable to outside influence.

Format C:oalition
Operation Reg Roulette, or How the Socialists Scammed the Selfish

Just when the would-be government and opposition seemed to have reached a win-win solution, lifting the rostrum blockade and averting mass starvation, something else kicked in. Having co-opted Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz as the Trojan Horse, the Regionalists mounted a surprise counteroffensive that redrew the battlefield to their advantage. These strange bedfellows overran the fledgling ego-sandbagged Orange coalition in a brilliant backstage maneuver (read: backstab), a feat that qualifies Mr. Moroz for Con Artist of the Year.

Ecstatic about the course of events in Kyiv was Viktor Medvedchuk, a well-known friend of Russia and the man whose media management skills had worked wonders when he served as Kuchma’s Chief of Staff. From the golden resorts of Monte Carlo, Mr. Medvedchuk blew kisses to his home, sweet home. Needless to say, the Russian Duma, jumped for joy. Russian MPs hailed the freshly-minted Ukrainian Speaker Moroz and “eulogized” the demise of the Orange Revolution. Bursting with candor, Russian Vice Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the son of a Ukrainian-born Jew, carried the point further. He used the occasion to unshelf his blueprint for better bilateral relations, which, far from being innovative, prescribes partitioning Ukraine into East and West.

Nothing better defines the geopolitical slant of the Socialist scam in Ukraine than this instant rash of endorsements from Russia and friends. Bravo, Mr. Putin! On the eve of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, the freedom-loving people of Ukraine are sending you a hilarious shipment of joke fodder with which to regale your powerful guests. Less than two years after you prematurely congratulated him, your man regains his potency. What could be more debilitating to critics of Russia’s foreign policy than news of Ukraine reorienting itself on its own volition?

Ukraine’s Burning Questions
It’s the butt of Puttie’s jokes who populate the questions Ukraine’s struggling with. Now that Operation Reg Roulette has sunk the Orange Fleet to the bottom of political food chains, the castaways have a lot of homework to do.

1. Will the austerities they face help BYuT and NSNU rekindle togetherness and regroup into opposition?

2. Or will NSNU, a longtime PRU seductee, leave BYuT stranded and join the club (read: couch), in a departure from their caucus’s preliminary decision to seek repeat elections?

3. What position would NSNU enjoy in this arrangement?

4. Will Yanukovych become PM?

5. If BYuT and NSNU stick together, to what extent will PRU headhunters succeed at Balkanizing them, apart from the several “free radicals” whose voting patterns already smack of defection?

6. Will the powers that be (read: pirates) preserve all the privileges granted to the opposition?

7. What are the pros and cons of disbanding Parliament and are there enough grounds?

Tymo out of a Limo
Obviously, no one feels more upset in the new world order than Tymoshenko. The Joan of Arc of Ukrainian politics still has to recover from the shock of having to kiss good-bye to the prized PM position. There she is — all dressed up and nowhere to go, back to square one. If NSNU, driven by its financial faction, dives into the PRU-SPU-CPU loveshack, she will find herself booked in the Orange Orphanage. Now hear this! In his recent interview, Kuchma, the poltergeist of Ukrainian politics, gave his hearty welcome to this ménage a quatre concept.

Anyway, when the chips are down, such a scenario will only remind her of the fighter that she is. Let there be no doubt: The lady who flies like a butterfly and stings like a bee will make the best of it. Sooner or later, through her endless energy, and with the influx of frustrated NSNU electorate, she’ll break the walls and she’ll take no hostages. This one goes to you, President Yushchenko.

One way to look at her present station is to isolate her own political genes that had contributed to it.

She built her parliamentary campaign around contrasting her virtues with the vices of NSNU tycoons. So restless was her quest for premiership that it lured her into a “one vote stand” with the PRU on a gas-related vote of no confidence to the Yekhanurov Cabinet. At that point, it appeared that her loyalty to the Orange Revolution was gone with the gas.

Right from the start, she knew that the vote would have no legal effect, as the law required that the Cabinet carry on until May. She desired differentiation — a dose of publicity that would favorably set her apart from the shadow of the dominant NSNU brand. That’s where she got carried away. The ‘traitor’ effect she achieved mired her so badly that she took pains to re-Orangize herself. Despite the relative success her after-action whitewashing had with voters, the move had become just another poisoned arrow that exacerbated her ailing relations with NSNU.

Once again, the bad blood between the Orange guys, at work since the Tymoshenko Cabinet’s dismissal, codified the rules of engagement: It’s OK to dump each other. Instead of resolving their differences and reaching out for each other, the Orange Revolutionaries held each other at gunpoint, shredding that very special something they shared.

Bonnie (Tymo) and Clyde (Moro)
In the Speaker tryouts, Tymoshenko stood firmly behind Moroz, and both did their best to keep Poroshenko at bay. Both sought to relive the glory of their past — Moroz as Speaker, Tymoshenko as Premier — all of which made them a tightly knit support group bent on securing those cherished second-coming experiences. But their folie a duex similarity ends right there — once the numbers take center stage. While Tymo garnered a juicy 22.29 percent of the vote, Moro netted a meager 5.69 percent. Statistically speaking, the Socialists hungered for Speakership with a tenacity unmatched by their electoral market share.

As the coalition talks neared breakdown, Moroz, knowing that the ball was in his court, seemed to have changed his ways. tradeoffs, he inked a coalition compact with BYuT and NSNU that irrevocably entitled NSNU to the Speaker’s position and thereby lay to rest his overly ambitious claims.

Contrary to the impression he had created, no sooner had the ink dried than Moroz began openly expressing his voir dire reservations about Poroshenko and demanded his replacement. Rumors of PRU-SPU flirtations regarding the vote on Speaker leaked to the press. In response to this dangerous undercurrent, Poroshenko, the scandal scarred NSNU candidate who claims being the victim of a smear campaign, pressed the Socialists’ to honor commitments spelled out in the compact. Even Tymo, who may have silently reveled in the thought of Poro’s replacement, refused to get embroiled.

The Countdown Begins
At the opening of the Rada’s morning session on Thursday, July 6, a day that will live in infamy, Tymo exuded confidence and excitement. The femme fatale unveiled a 50-50 plan that lavished on the opposition as many as 15 committees, or half of the total number. These pockets of power covered banking and finances, corporate governance and privatization, corruption and organized crime prevention. In addition to that crème de la crème mix, the consolation package included chairmanship of the Oversight Chamber, with its enlarged capabilities, and, of course, the almighty secret ballot. And, finally, to promote goodwill and cross-partisan cooperation, Tymo proposed to swap Committee Vice Chairmanships.

She should have saved those outpourings of generosity for her grand kids. When Yanuke ordered a pullout from the rostrum, he had a completely different agenda in mind.

Launch!
After lunch break, the smell of betrayal, so pervasive in the corridors of the Verkhovna Rada, reached alarming intensity. Yosyp Vinsky, head of the SPU politburo, blew the whistle. He went public with what he said were behind-the-scenes preparations for voting into power a mutually agreed PRU-SPU Speaker. As the media munched on Vinsky’s revelations, Moroz remained tongue seated in the session room, his face an expression of cold-blooded calculus. He and his partners set in motion a chain reaction of reactionism that proved once again that causal encounters in politics happen far more often than Socialism with a human face.

The visible part came to light when a Socialist MP made a motion to nominate Oleksander Moroz for Speaker, the other nominee being Mykola Azarov of the PRU. Now fully away that this was not a drill, Petro Poroshenko assumed a battle position on the rostrum.

In an emotionally charged speech Poroshenko announced the withdrawal of his candidacy and called on Moroz to do the same. Let the Regionalists test their voting firepower with Azarov, Poroshenko thundered. Once they learned their limitations, his logic went, parties to the Orange coalition could safely retreat to the negotiation table and settle the Speaker dispute on their own. Moroz rejected this reconciliation bid, saying that the full support of his fellow Socialists gave him no reason to give up on himself. The smokescreen statement he issued hinted at two possible courses of action:

1. “Different strokes for different folks.” Socialists vote for Moroz, Regionalists vote Azarov. Both get their egos stroked, but yield nothing.

2. “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.” Socialists vote for Moroz, and so do Regionalists. Moroz becomes Speaker, Yanukovych Premier.

Nobody wanted to believe it, but the latter transaction seemed the most practical — the most likely shape of things to come. Before the vote was even passed, PRU messenger Taras Chornovil, speaking in parables, had proudly fed the breaking news to the media.

Bottom line: Moroz won unanimous consent and a standing ovation from the Regionalists. Secret ballot? Forget it. Call it electoral exhibitionism with an obsessive-compulsive component. Under the voyeur’s gaze of Big Brother-style party bosses, SPU-PRU frères d'armes cast their ballots, often showing them in full view of the cameras.

In this “Unite Ukraine” spectacle, as PRU strategists have branded it, the credits are as follows:

1. Azarov acted as a decoy. His nomination, highly praised by the Regionalists, duped the Orange guys into believing he was the real thing, which prevented them from attempting interception early in the attack.

2. Moroz starred as a stooge. His “paid” AWOL, as rumor has it, caught the rest of the team off guard. He offered his services for a good political price, and both seller and buyer got what they wanted.

Excerpts from Moroz’s File
The “Purple Heart” for distinguished service to the PRU now decorating Moroz’s chest hardly signals a new trend in his behavior. Those who have been following Moroz in telescopic detail have more to tell. Below are some memorable moments from his political star trek.

1999 As the presidential campaign gains momentum, Oleksander Moroz drops out of the supposedly anti-Kuchma alliance called the Kanev Four, after the alliance nominates former intelligence chief and PM Yevhen Marchuk for President. Marchuk, a centrist figure, went on to #5 in the first round and readily marched for Kuchma in the run off election in exchange for the National Security Council job.

Although the Kanev Four may have been a trap, Moroz’s runaway profile was forever seared in the memory of Ukrainians. Well aware of his high potential, he just would not wrap his mind around someone else. So, he opts for a lone ranger act — only to have his mission ruined by Petro Symonenko of the CPU, his present coalition partner.

Bottom line: Moroz made #3, Symonenko #2, and Kuchma #1. Both helped Kuchma’s reelection by playing into his hands alongside the 1996 Yeltsin-Zyuganov scheme.

The major egomaniac episode described above laid down a marker for further attention-seeking adventure.

2000-2001 Moroz steals the spotlight with clandestine recordings of Kuchma and his inner circle allegedly made by Mykola Melnychenko, a right-minded officer on Kuchma’s security detail. From what can be deciphered, Kuchma ‘sings’ of strongarm action against distinguished opposition journalist Heorhiy Gongadze missing since September. Gongadze confronted Kuchma on talk shows and slammed him with editorials. The sudden stream of low-fi recordings in Moroz’s possession, heavily punctuated with Kuchma’s foul language, shakes society to its core. Shortly afterwards, the beheaded body of the missing journalist is discovered in the forest near Tarashcha, Moroz’s home village. Amid street protests that continued into 2001, Kuchma denies role, saying the recordings are fabricated, and increasingly secludes himself in the Crimea, where he dates Putin.

2002 What sounds like a dialogue on the sale of the Ukrainian-made Kolchuha radar system to Saddam Hussein marks a new spike in the Kuchmagate. Following the release of this recording, Washington examines it and finds the material to be authentic. Street protests rock the Ukrainian capital with renewed vigor. With the blink of an eye, Leonid Kuchma gets grounded diplomatically by an America whose heart still bleeds for the victims of 9/11 and whose public opinion and leaders link Saddam Hussein to Osama bin Laden.

Kuchma desperately tries to disassociate himself from his pariah status — but only at his own peril. At the NATO summit in Prague in 2002, he received a lesson he’ll never forget. Despite the clear indication that his presence at the event would be unwelcome, Kuchma decides to gatecrash. To prevent the UK and US delegations from the discomfort of sharing space with the Ukrainian delegation, the protocol officers embarked on a creative approach. They switched the seating chart from English to French. Under this “French Kiss” arrangement, Ukraine remained unchanged, while the UK metamorphosed into Royaume Unis and the US into États-Unis. What a view! Kuchma suffered in silence, sealed from Blair and Bush by a linguistic cordon sanitaire.

Ironically, neither WMDs nor Kolchuhas turned up in Iraq.

Bottom line: Mystery surrounds this geopolitical X-File and Moroz’s role in it. At best, it was that of a DJ who spun the LP collection to his own benefit. At worst, it was that of an agent of influence who utilized Ukrainians as guinea pigs for the benefit of a foreign country. In fact, many experts have thoroughly debunked the underlying events as a Kremlin plot to weaken Kuchma and draw him closer. Anyway, the Kuchmagate affair cost the life of journalist, brought misery to his family, and boiled into a national drama.

2002-2003 Moroz partners with Medvedchuk on the so-called politreforma, a Constitutional amendment that would transfer the bulk of the power from the President to the PM and Parliament. Both look to it for a coping strategy in the face of the upcoming presidential election.
Undoubtedly, Medvedchuk sought to prolong the Kuchma regime by reemploying his patron as PM and installing a bicameral Pavlovian legislative. Although the bicameral concept did not withstand the opposition’s pressure, the politreforma lived on.

Moroz argued that the politreforma would facilitate Kuchma’s retirement and would provide the best safeguard against tyranny no matter who won the presidential race.

2004 After Yushchenko carries the first round of the election by a thin margin, Moroz conditions his endorsement in the run-off election on the candidate’s full commitment to the politreforma. As Ukraine verged on civil war, Yushchenko had to reaffirm this commitment to keep the hotheads in the Kuchma regime from cracking down on the Orange Revolution.

Moroz has come a long way. Throughout his career, he has established himself as a glib guy who knows what he wants and may be willing to get his goals accomplished at all costs.

Moroz and Morality: Points of Intersection
When asked whether he had any feelings of guilt to share about the recent events, Moroz skillfully surfed on the public’s dismay over the vicissitudes of Orange coalition-building. Trying to deflect torrents of criticism raining on his parade, he argued that tears his ex-partners shed were crocodile tears. According to Moroz, when the PRU and NSNU had almost clinched the deal, Tymo disrupted its consummation in the nick of time and resuscitated talks on the Orange coalition. But NSNU ballerinas, fixated on mating with bigtime PRU machos, just couldn’t stand her. So, he continued, they embarked on a strategy of sabotage aimed at derailing Tymo from the PM track. Had she taken the reigns of the Cabinet, they would have had quite a motive to contribute to her speedy failure. The fallout from her “leadership failure” would have paved the way for a PRU-NSNU coalition and would have cast BYuT and the SPU overboard.

On the one hand, Moroz’s woebegone story has its merits. The halo effect has long vacated the top brass of the Orange Revolution, especially during the last couple of months. One has little moral standing if one’s claims of injustice can be offset with attempts to push one’s neighbor off the cliff. With that in mind, what’s wrong about breaking off a negotiation if one no longer finds his partners trustworthy? What’s wrong about selling to the highest bidder? Nothing. Unless, on the other hand, you agreed to provide advance notice of your decision and unless you sell what’s not yours to sell. The farmers and smalltown intelligentsia in Central Ukraine, who entrusted Mr. Moroz with their votes have been done a disservice. Had they (his electoral base) known that Moroz would sell them down the river, most of them would have run him out of town in the first place.

Having volunteered himself as the surrogate mother to the predominantly capitalist coalition, Moroz drew catcalls from European Socialists like Jan Marinus Wiersma, Socialist Group Vice-President in charge of EU enlargement issues. It is against this background that Mr. Moroz takes his chances with domestic audiences. He waxes eloquent in an effort to sell the Ukrainian people on the idea of himself as a solution seller/icebreaker, a nice guy who did a job for which he will receive credit only with the passage of time.

However, recent polls and call-in shows, as well as the screenfuls of hate mail he gets on forums, suggest that many people, his voters included, think otherwise. In their eyes, Moroz threw himself into the soul seller/promise breaker category.

To wield something of a scandal silencer and to project positive emphasis, PRU-SPU-CPU strategists have couched the coalition in missionary overtones. They christened their brainchild the “anti-crisis coalition.” For many unsuspecting Ukrainians, that brand name still defies logic: The economy has expanded at the annual rate of 5 percent, and incomes have risen 20 percent. Based on these field reports, it is safe to conclude that the RegiSociCommunists are in the business of creating crises where there are none. Put another way, they have applied for a “Ghostbuster” role in the theater of public opinion.

Several script discrepancies that have emerged in the postnatal period of “anticrisis coalition” building may dash cold water on the integrity of its parents. Whereas Moroz has described his decision in spur-of-the-moment terms, his colleagues have supplied a different picture. The dark side of Moroz has repeatedly confessed that it was the result of premeditated activity.

Of course, the dog-eat-dog atmosphere of the negotiations in no small part had shaped Moroz’s AWOL. But the final choice was his to make, and his disappearing act in the Bermuda triangle of the Orange Revolution may become the lethal flashback that will send the Socialists into oblivion in the next election. He may pull his hair out in the name of “uniting Ukraine,” trying to camouflage his greed, but that sort of ritual will hardly divert his parish from trying to divine where morality ends and Socialism begins.


Trading the Lost Marbles of the Revolution for the Hot Coals of Cohabitation
President Yushchenko has his own share of hair-pulling to do. He and his henchmen spent months unable to come to grips with losing to BYuT.

The agonizing downhill slide Yushchenko’s ratings had taken kept him flip-flopping from Orange to Blue and back. Instead of feeding the nation with Saturday night pop corn addresses, he should have assumed a hands-on moderator role. He should have rolled up his sleeves and put the Orange coalition to work. Politically, nobody was home upstairs.

Downstairs Ukraine witnessed Tom & Jerry-style turf wars, beggar-thy-neighbor negotiations, on-again, off-again subscription to the proportionality principle in dividing Cabinet seats. The Orange guys could well contribute their learn-the-hard-way findings to a case study titled “The Dos and Donts of Team Play.”

As they juggled their overblown egos, little did they know what was coming to them. Not for a moment did the Blue guys waving their laundry list of complaints stop scheming their way into power.

Ukraine gave the Orange guys another chance, and all they did was make their leadership the laughingstock of nations. First, they disgraced themselves with a prolonged power struggle over Cabinet seats, quite an ugly sight to see. Second, they fell victim to backstabbing, which, too, ate into the stock value of the Orange Revolution.

And now BYuT lionhearts are rallying for repeat elections, and NSNU lizards are scanning the “anticrisis” pyramid for niches. Tymo should entertain no illusions about her repeat elections initiative. She should be fully aware that the sword swallowing act she has announced, even if enforceable, may be lost on a society caught in the midst of the vacation season. Over the last months, the Orange audience has grown weary of watching its heroes’ silly games in a show called “How to Lose a Government in 10 Ways.” Whether she denies it or not, the pendulum of public opinion has slightly swung in favor of the Blue guys. In light of this extreme exhaustion, should a rerun be made anytime soon, it may be overtax the Orange audience’s interest in democracy as a full time job and adversely affect turnout.

Starting July 25, Yushchenko has the authority to disband Parliament if the Cabinet continues vacant. However, due to waning support for his party, he will most likely choose not to exercise that option. Repeat elections will result in greater failure for NSNU, or so the mainstream argument goes.

That’s why oppositionphobic attacks have overwhelmed NSNU to the point of nonsense. The plausible excuse behind NSNU’s cohabitation with the PRU is that it’s impossible to have a President who’s opposed by Parliament and the Cabinet. Maybe Yushchenko should seek counseling from Clinton, who dealt with a Republican Congress in 1994-95, or from Chirac, who endured Socialist PM Jospin in 1997-2002.

Certainly, Yanuke craves a more solid footing for his throne, which would stem from having NSNU on board. At the same time, Operation Reg Roulette has severely reduced NSNU’s bargaining power. While in the preop phase the formula “Yanukovych Speaker, Yekhanurov PM” supplied the common ground for negotiation, in the postop phase the PRU will yield no ground, except for maybe asking the CPU to leave. Yet, however desirable NSNU’s presence may be, it is hardly critical. This means that NSNU’s position no longer counts all that much. The tables have turned: Beggars can’t be choosers, and Yanukovych is nonnegotiable. One of the carrots planted to induce NSNU to agree propounds that the “anticrisis” coalition can be rebranded as the “coalition of national unity.”

Yushy and Tymo have little room for conventional maneuver and thus have applied the good cop/bad cop tactics themselves. In a manner consistent with their situations and capabilities — and probably in the hope of extracting some seats on first-class committees — both have issued disbandment threats.

The Regs, in turn, gave Yushchenko until early August to finalize the Yanukovych nomination. In case their chief does not get pampered, the Regs have promised to respond in kind, unleashing the wrath of Donbas on the corrupt city of Kyiv and impeaching President Yushchenko. On closer observation, the moral stature of their crusade bogs down in the mechanics of impeachment. Mustering the 300 votes required to overcome the presidential veto cannot be done without exporting talent from NSNU and BYuT. Experts believe that this procedure would involve financial stimulation. In fact, there’s a body language video suggesting that the cash-on-the barrel approach to voting may not be science fiction, after all.

Anyway, escalation continues. As of Wednesday, July 26, Yushchenko remains in his meditation pagoda, praying for divine intervention. Yanukovych is spitting peace-and-harmony sound bites on the public while breathing fire on the President, awaiting nomination for PM. His magi have stalked Yushchenko, and Speaker Moroz has courteously called the President on the carpet.
Time is running out on the President. Unless he decides to use the weapon of last resort, he cannot stonewall the PM nomination indefinitely. Besides, he needs the Rada’s cooperation in appointing Justices to the Constitutional Court’s, whose opinion he is determined to seek in order to play down the politreforma.

In the western Ukrainian city of Rivne, two maverick Socialists, including the brother of Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, burned their member cards in protest to Moroz’s adventurism. Minister Lutsenko himself has revoked membership in the Socialist Party.

Communist leader Petro Symonenko flew to Moscow for a hush-hush tryst with Putin.

Yanukovych supporters broke camp near the Rada. Regionalist MP Oleh Kalashnikov, tasked with coordinating camp activities, lashed out at reporters filming a rally and seized the video. Slapped with a scandal at a time when its image should have radiated immaculacy, the PRU had Mr. Kalashnikov apologize. Somehow, the apology Mr. Kalashnikov squeezed out of himself sounded like a mock one. Instead of confessing to having a short fuse and a poor grasp of democracy, he actually blamed the journalists for dong their job in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

The flavor of his reconciliation statement only made the scandal spiral upwards. Finally, Yanukovych went out of his way to expel the berserker from the PRU roster. Relax, deontologists. He did this for more than purity’s sake. He did this for the purpose of publicizing his dazzling “love affair” with the freedom of press. How else could a fine liberal like him ward off skepticism from all those pervs who dare deem otherwise?

And who says that clemency should elude a strong leader’s character? No way! So, the expulsion was a mock one too: There’s hardly a law on the books that says Kalashnikov should be out of his job as a result of expulsion from the PRU.

Paradoxically, the new-fashioned coalition has lumped together Ukraine’s richest man and the champions of the proletariat. Observers are wondering how exactly Yanukovych Socialists and Communists are going to square the slashing of taxes with the promise of a robust welfare state. Those poor folks who voted for a bright future under the never-setting sun of Marxism-Leninism should take a hike. Except for ultraviolet exposure — that’s what you get when you mix blue and red — they won’t even find trace amounts of that future.

Attention fun lovers! The soon-to-be-released “Banana Republic” by Nouveaux Riches feat. Commie Oldies (remix) can best be enjoyed with vodka and pot.

In Memory of the Orange Revolution
Maidan, now occupied by BYuT and Pora tents, is but a shadow of its former self. In the cold winter of 2004 people flocked to it with their hearts warm. In the hot summer of 2006, many of those same people pass it by with their cold hearts. It takes time to put one’s expectations out of the refrigerator again.

Repeat elections can be a risky business. But this is not the worst course of action for the President to take, provided (1) enough time has elapsed for people to recharge their batteries and (2) BYuT and NSNU become one. Anyway, as long as Yushchenko keeps all options open, spoilers will be hard to come by.

More likely than not, by allying himself with Yanukovych, Yushchenko will hit the last nail in his political coffin, rather than achieve a healthy cohabitation.

For Yushchenko and, to a lesser degree, for Tymoshenko, the Orange Revolution has evolved into an inconvenient term, almost a taboo. Not only do they refer to it with detachment but they also do this on a declining basis, similar to the Pavlovian procedure of extinguishment. One never speaks about revolution in the house of the hanged.

Life goes on. A country standing at the crossroads needs no narcoleptic leaders. Somebody has to dust off the Ukrainian Dream, and that somebody is you. Or, if you’re too tired, simply hold your breath.

Star-Starved Regionalists Threaten Hunger Strike

The entire mankind can’t hold back the tears as it stands witness to the courage and resolve of a few principled men who refuse to surrender their humble passion for power.

At war with the results of the election they failed to barnstorm and unsatisfied with the proposed consolation package, Regionalists are only a few steps away from the decision of their lifetime: biological warfare. These lovelorn legislators have now come to the horrifying threshold — and this time the laws of biology would be directed against their very selves. That life cannot do without nourishment remains a fundamental law of biology and aptly sums up the war effort be undertaken.

Dedicated to the benefit of all Ukrainians, so the Rada Regionalists argue, operation Starving Stardom, as it may be called, promises to break new ground in the study of political food chains. The object of the longitudinal study about to commence is to determine how slim Ukraine’s fattest cats can be.

Undoubtedly, the impending anorexic attack will revitalize Ukraine’s waning academia, supplying students of political science and dieticians with fresh food for thought.

It’s a bitch, isn’t it? Few believed that the Regionalists, whose appetite for power swelled day-by-day to as many as 14 committees, would end up in the confines of self-imposed hunger.

SOS to Putin. Operation Starving Stardom on standby. Request immediate media backup and full-coverage humanitarian airlift.

Just the Three of Us
Together We Stand, Divided We Fall

Whew, they finally did it! Or did they? More likely than not, the Orange ones have mended fences, ending months of edgy negotiations that had the entire nation suffer from fatigue. ‘A stale sitcom whose characters outlive their popularity day by day’ would be the best synopsis for the BYuT-NSNU-SPU coalition talks. Both critics and supporters of the Orange coalition have spared no epithets in denouncing the way the talks were handled. Smelling a ‘divide and conquer’ opportunity, the Regionalists relentlessly pounced on the lack of chemistry in the Orange trio.

For those who grew up thinking the ‘Orange coalition’ was one word, a totally different emotional canvas unfurled itself. It felt like losing one’s religion — standing on the postelection sidelines, watching the three of them anxiously divvy up the political bacon. Somehow, the public pressure to perform brought them to their senses. By and large, they rose above the trench war of recriminations and retracted the hydraulics of last-minute demands. So much for the Hollywoodization of Yanukovych, the coalition-seeking desperado. In a classic winner-take-all arrangement, the Orange coalition now claims all the Oscars, a bitter truth which sets Mr. Yanukovych free to test his talent in an underground role. Yet, because his associates had expected nothing short of full reinstatement to the upper levels of government, they find it hard to accept a second-class role.

A minor flashpoint arose when SPU leader Oleksander Moroz suggested that the coalition would be better off if NSNU reconsiders its decision to nominate Petro Poroshenko for Speaker. This, he said, would help prevent a repeat of the tug of war between Poro and Tymo. Observers believe that the most likely alternative candidate, Anatoly Kinakh (NSNU), has the blessing of both the SPU and BYuT. Sensing an unwelcome advance into its private political territory, NSNU quickly responded that parties to the coalition had agreed on a no-veto policy.

Meanwhile, to prevent the coalition from ordaining either of these the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, the Regionalists have staged all-night vigils on its premises. In the daytime they resort to blockading the rostrum, effectively preventing the Rada from convening. Quite understandably, the third highest post in the country represents something of a holy grail to the Regionalists, who can’t bear the thought of excommunication from the high priesthood of government.

Also, at stake is chairmanship of key parliamentary committees. The Regions Party maintains that committee chairmanship should be allocated proportionate to the election results, which would entitle the Regionalists to as many as six committees, a sizeable chunk of the legislative machinery.

A procedural jihad ensued. The Orange ones insisted on an omnibus vote on Prime Minister and Speaker, while the Blue ones argued that the Constitution and the rules of order clearly prohibit such practice. Instead they are demanding a secret ballot, a view surprisingly shared by the SPU. (Rumor has it that undercover agents have approached shadowy starlets from the Orange camp with lavish pay-per-vote offers.)

NSNU has since dropped the omnibus preference and agreed to a roll-call vote, emphasizing the public’s right to know who’s who in the Ukrainian legislature.
Regardless of the current tussles, a healthy checks-and-balances system needs to be in place. Following this logic, President Yushchenko has already given the opposition the green light to run the Freedom of Speech Committee.

As of July 3, the situation showed no signs of improvement. The Blue ones, themselves hardly sterile of spin, carry on with their quarantine of the rostrum. So far, the round table talks initiative suggested by the Orange coalition in a bid to lift the stalemate — so that, through media coverage, society can hear both sides of the story — have elicited meager response from Yanukovych and Co. Instead, they pulled a no-show and sent word that their hit list has expanded — and quite dramatically so. It starts with the Vice Speaker’s seat, includes a vast array of positions in local governments, and demands that Constitutional Court Justices be appointed with the advice and consent of the Regions Party. On top of that, Yanukovych has urged President Yushchenko to join the talks and has insisted that they be held in closed-door mode. Until these conditions are met, he warned, the Regions Party will stay the course.

On Ukraine’s electoral map, the Regs hardly ever advanced to the other side, that is, beyond their home base in Southeastern Ukraine. The March parliamentary election proved just that. Under the therapy of American PR consultants, the double-F ‘Proffessor (sic) of Economics’ — that’s how the man had defined himself on the 2004 candidate application form — carried the tear-jerking torch for the Ukrainian economy amid record industry growth rates, roaring car sales and slight deflation.

Again, it’s the economy, stupid. In his campaign, Yanukovych made it clear that renegotiating a better gas deal with Russia would be his ‘comeback’ Cabinet’s top priority. He teased the public with his good standing in the Kremlin and deplored all the wreckage the 95/230 deal would bring for the economy. For some reason, with his dreamboat out of reach, he seems to have quietly abandoned his assessment as well, a classic yo-yo maneuver that fits the Regionalist ‘scorched economy’ policy.

The newly appointed US ambassador William Taylor has stated that Washington would back Ukraine’s renegotiation initiative, and Yuliya Tymoshenko, the would-be Premier, took the lead in promoting the idea.

Given the Regs’ spiteful propensity to act as termites to Ukrainian statehood, every time they fail their entry exams, they have little appeal in the bigger and less Russified part of the country. Their ‘ends justify the means’ philosophy goes way beyond 2004.

Initially, the March 2002 parliamentary election was hardly a windfall for Kuchma vassals. The pro-government ZaYedu and SDPU duo barely harvested 20 percent of the vote. (Actually, the one and only region where ZaYedu prevailed was Donbas.) What happened next merits the term ‘paranormal postelection activity.’ By threatening to expropriate their businesses through the bureaucratic coercion of so-called ‘adminresurs,’ the hallmark of the Kuchma regime, ZaYedu and the SDPU were able to round up independent MPs into a marionette majority. In this manmade twist of fate, NSNU and BYuT, which mustered up to 30 percent, discovered themselves in the ranks of the opposition. Later on, even some of their card-carrying fellow men were sighted off Kuchma’s ‘Cape Canaveral.’ The MP transfer business thrived; folks made fortunes for walking out on the opposition.

Under the weight of these memories, the Orange guys are more than willing to give the Blue guys a taste of their own medicine. Still, the focus should be elsewhere.

Of course, the Regionalists should learn to take no for an answer and quit asking for multitasking. The history of modern democracies provides few examples, if any, of parties that, within a single branch, combined both government and opposition tasks.

Democracy involves both upward and downward mobility. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. As long as contestants enjoy a level playing field, there’s nothing abnormal about losing two times in a row. What should be invented is some kind of consolation prize, a political pacifier that would help the Regionalists cope with their ADHD and would cushion them into an opposition role.

But, above all else, the Orange coalition has its own homework to do. The weary voters won’t stomach another false start and the road ahead requires talent and team play. Short of these performance drivers, nothing can defuse such choke points such as gas. Amending the budget to make an allowance for increased energy costs in the public sector remains a key agenda item. The trio should upgrade their crisis management skills before it’s too late. By all accounts, they can do better than they did in 2005.

Ukrainians should be able to make a decent living, without necessarily promoting their leaders’ families to the Forbes billionaires list. And remember: The only way to deal with the Regionalists is to speak with one voice.

Cold Breeze in Crimea, Unease in Kyiv

Amid an interregnum caused by foundering coalition talks in Kyiv, swarms of Crimean protesters are celebrating a petty victory over Euroatlantic imperialism. Over the past two weeks, the hornet’s nest of Russophilic rednecks has successfully targeted preparations for the US-Ukrainian naval exercise Sea Breeze 2006 scheduled for July-August. Following the evacuation of the US Army reservists, who came there to set up the infrastructure, the toll continues to rise. Due to increasing political turbulence, the British-Ukrainian airborne exercise Tight Knot 2006 planned for June 14 in the neighboring oblast of Mykolayiv, has been postponed.

On closer examination, such well-coordinated effort goes way beyond the framework of knee-jerk Yankee-bashing carnivals so commonplace in Southeast Ukraine. Heavily Russified by tsars and the Soviets, Southerners never approved of the multinational exercises held in the Black Sea since 1997. Nor did they ever obstruct them to any significant degree. What accounts for the sudden buildup is the protracted power struggle in Kyiv over cabinet seats.

Ten weeks into gestation, the tripartite Orange coalition has became a sore spot even for the most resilient grassroots supporters. But as the Orange ones negotiate their way through egomania, the Blue ones, aka the Regionalists, were stuck with maniac depression, desperately trying to repaint the coalition their way. Their last-ditch takeover strategy aims to seduce whoever they can into playing the surrogate mother they need in order to produce a coalition.

Last week, negotiations in the Orange camp ground to a halt, with the final bone of contention being the Speaker’s seat. The Socialists (SPU) booked the country’s third-highest post for their leader, Oleksander Moroz. Craving control over the legislature, they threatened to pursue the opposition track unless their demand is fulfilled. The cravings represented in this ultimatum case are also embedded in nostalgia, something of a call of nature for Mr. Moroz, Speaker of the Rada, 1994-98.

Nasha Ukraina (NU), which fell from fame in the March election, but still came ahead of the SPU, has refused to pamper the Socialists. In fact, the NU talent pool is teeming with midcap tycoons willing to accept Spartan, if not doggy-style, accommodations from the Regions Party (PRU). Rumors persist that members of Yushchenko’s inner circle have strongly advocated for an NU-PRU alliance, despite an obvious death knell for Yushchenko’s reelection chances stemming from this alliance. (If only that could save them from the gender thing about Tymonatrix.)

Of course, the likelihood of defection remains largely academic. Still, in the event of either player swinging to the other side, an open-arms reception from the PRU is guaranteed. And if he is lucky, the defector will even qualify for a few crumbs off the Cabinet’s table. Needless to say, draconian scenarios of the above kind would leave Yuliya Tymoshenko, the matron of the would-be coalition, in severe distress.

Against this background, the ‘Crimean Carnival’ appears to be part of a publicity campaign designed to stoke the PRU brand, prominently displaying Yanukovych as the ‘doer’ type of leader capable of uniting Ukraine and keeping it safe from harm. To establish follow-up rapport with their voters, the bourgeois Regionalists and their Communist and Progressive Socialist alter egos, featuring this election’s unsung diva Nataliya Vitrenko, went on a media rampage. They aptly tossed the Crimea into the nationwide cauldron of public opinion and stirred it with Cold War agitprop leftovers.

From the days Greek and Roman colonies spread along the coastline to the chronicles of the Crimean War, the Nazi atrocities and the Yalta Conference, the Crimea’s relations with Western civilization span millennia. By banking on the bloody chapters and the legitimate sentiment they evoke in the audience, the Regionalists exploited the Crimea for their own benefit.

The sizzling reports of ‘Southern hospitality’ that resulted from the Regionalist rampage conveniently resonate with the ‘Uncle Sam lovers’ in the Kremlin. Indirectly, they help rock the deadlocked negotiation boat, until, driven off the edge by the greedy companions, somebody feels free to board the back of the Regionalist bus. Upon achievement of this objective, the Regionalists would banquet in the Kremlin and take further instruction.

Poor babushkas. Little did they know that their gods have been cheating them left and right, hiring American PR talent by the ton. Now what would these elderly ladies think of them who badmouth Uncle Sum on Tuesday if they received a tip that these very guys had bought from Uncle Sam on Monday? And by the way, up until their leader’s ouster in 2004, the Rada Regionalists had never hesitated in putting their stamp of approval on Ukraine-NATO military exercises.

Ukrainian officials clearly goofed when they ‘forgot’ to obtain the Rada’s permit, but the NATO lobby is not the only party who took a beating. The kiss off episode involving USS Advantage, whose cargo of materiel and munitions remained port-bound, under the tight surveillance of anti-NATO activists, boomeranged on the local denizens financially. Unless it was a calculated risk, they simply let themselves be taken advantage of by the cause they espouse.
Like all Black Sea resorts, Theodosia hugely depends on tourist revenue. Based on this fact of life, it turns out those patriots waving Russian tricolors are in the business of buzzsawing the branch they’re sitting on. One can only guess at the revenues lost to the town’s budget due to the hysteria, as Yankees went home with their money unspent and Russkies did a great job of siphoning customers away to Black Sea resorts of their own.

Despite the whole syndicated show the Regionalists made out of providing protective status to the Russian language — in regions where it is spoken by an overwhelming majority — communications gaps have not ceased to exist. When you tell them in Russian that Moscow’s liaison with NATO surpasses Kyiv’s both in scale and scope, they’re not listening.

True, the majority of Ukrainians still do not approve of NATO membership. Whatever their views, nationals of Ukraine have the right to peaceful assembly. But this right does not apply to foreign nationals, namely Russian activists, who customarily pull sneak attacks on the Crimea.

Their voyages to Ukraine obviously do not pass the reciprocity test. Should a group of Ukrainian activists break camp near a Russian naval base on the Kamchatka peninsula, protesting against a Sino-Russian military exercise, how would the Russian authorities react? Would they ever make it past the Russian border?

Thankfully, the Ukrainian authorities have finally learned to say no. Persona non grata status has been awarded to Russian Duma MP Konstantin Zatulin and Vice Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky. These Kremlin-appointed missionaries to Ukraine, known by their venomous verbiage and utmost disrespect for things Ukrainian, deserve no other treatment. Now they can save on airfare and make do with videoconferencing.

One, two, Puttie's coming for you; three four better lock your door; five six, grab your crucifix… The comic dimension of Moscow’s ‘good neighbor’ policy knows no boundaries.

Dispelling Putin’s Gas Rhetoric

Lecturing the Western media, President Putin found himself in one of those rhetorical roller-coaster loops where he managed to put a brave face on a grisly case. The Kremlin’s highly articulate Tarzan thumped his chest, taking credit for years of subsidizing the Ukrainian economy.

He also shamed the West for not being cooperative as Russia struggled hard to get the monkey off its back. (Now see this! Ukraine piggy-backed by Russia — fantasy meets hardcore, eh?)

The moment Ukraine checked out of Putin’s paradise, the West should have taken the poor crittur under its wing, so his argument went. After all, having welcomed the Orange Revolution, the West should now shoulder the burden. It should not shun helping Ukraine pay its way to the EU. And that includes the energy bills. Why in the world should the Russian heartbreak hotel pay for it?

On the face of it, Putin’s mounts a no-nonsense defense of the Russian taxpayers’ money. However, a casual perusal of a history textbook would reveal that the subsidy portion of his argument may not be as solid as it seems.
For over three hundred years Ukraine had been a colony of Russia. A waste of imperial resources? The tsar’s treasurers had had enough of a time frame to determine whether Ukraine added any value.

Thousands of Ukrainian Cossacks left their bones in the marshlands from which St. Petersburg, Putin’s native city, sprang. By that time Ukraine was called the breadbasket of Europe.

In the 1930s, Stalin carried out his business plan of industrialization and collectivization. Some 7 million Ukrainian farmers lost their lives ‘cross-subsidizing’ it.

Back in the 60s, when Puttie was a pioneer, the Soviet equivalent of a boyscout, Ukraine supplied a good share of the coal and gas within the country whose Communist ideals he worshipped. And he worshipped them with a devotion so intense that he couldn’t resist a career with the KGB. The Soviet Union’s deadliest line of ICBMs, including the SS-18 'Satan,' was made by Yuzhmash, the Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine-based aerospace powerhouse. That’s where Putin's eager beaver buddy Kuchma bossed around. Any Freudian interpretations?

In the 70s and 80s, the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic dispatched its human capital to the newly discovered oil fields in Siberia, a region where the Gulag relocation program had already placed millions of Ukrainians. Almost 3 million Ukrainians, most of them with college degrees, are now living in Russia, according to the 2002 census. Any schools where their kids can learn Ukrainian? One or two in the entire Russian Federation.

Following Ukraine's independence, Russia had indeed supplied Ukraine with oil and natural gas at discount prices. Still, there's something Putin failed to mention.

First, transit fees for Russian gas, 80 percent of which is exported to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines, had conveyed equal generosity.

Second, common Ukrainians were not the only ones who cashed in on the energy subsidies Putin talked about. With the steel boom that took off at the turn of the millenium, Ukraine's already privatized yet energy-guzzling industry accounted for the bulk of the energy consumed in the country. The profits went straight to offshore companies run by Moscow-friendly uber-oligarchs like Pinchuk and Akhmetov, the driving force behind Yanukovych. Mr. Putin had campaigned for this candidate on Ukrainian national television and even prematurely congratulated him.

Third, once the 'Energizer Bunny 2004' was gone with the Orange Revolution, Putin and his Kremlin strategists dove into a state of watchful hibernation. They resurfaced on New Year's Day and sent shock waves throughout the world with their second shot at Ukraine. Nothing could be more favorable for the 'big one' they held in store than the monthlong Orange ordeal raging on in Ukraine, so they thought. In Ukraine's parliamentary campaign they set out to inflate Yanukovych with the gas issue so as to land him in the high-stakes PM seat. Starting with Jan. 1, 2006, a constitutional amendment trimmed the powers of the President while empowering the Prime Minister.

Somehow, Yanukovych fell short of gaining a majority in the election. As soon as the Orange coalition gets hammered out, he will helm the opposition.
Unfortunately, Russia's commitment to market pricing does not extend to the Crimea. For an annual price that resembles the revenues of a soccer stadium, Russia rents a naval base there the size of a city.

Without the shadow of a doubt, Ukraine has outstayed its welcome on Russia’s energy welfare rolls. Despite that, through a panoply of proxy parties operating in Ukraine the Kremlin keeps coming back propositioning. The deal boils down to this: gas in exchange for freedom.

May there come a day when the Ukrainians will live in a neighborhood where they won't have to wear gas masks. And if their government keeps its breath free of gas, the Russians will be better off too.

Will a Revamped GUAM Offset Russia’s ‘Grand Slam?’

With the recent summit in Kyiv, a counter-CIS caucus that owes its acronym to Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova finally seems to have ventured past the beta stage. Started in 1997 and initially called the GUUAM, this quasi-organization has lied dormant most of the time, convening annually in the spirit of ‘all talk and no action.’ Kuchma simply kept the GUUAM handy in his ‘multivector’ foreign policy portfolio just in case Russia gave him a rougher ride than his ego could tolerate.

But as the winds of democracy grew stronger, propelling the peaceful retirement of Shevarnadze and Kuchma himself, Islom Karimov of Uzbekistan became all the more estranged. In the fifteen years of his tenure, the Central Asian fiefdom of 27 million, known as the world’s second-largest producer of cotton, has hardly consumed any democratic calories. To muffle criticism of its medieval human rights record, Tashkent had eagerly hosted a US airbase, once Washington had plunged into the war on terror. However, Karimov’s hospitality did not interfere with his loyalty to the Tashkent Pact, the cornerstone CIS agreement on security.
Last year, when Uzbek authorities brutally suppressed an Islamist opposition rally in Andijan, Ukraine joined the West in condemning the massacre. By that time Uzbekistan had already announced its complete withdrawal from the GUUAM.

After Uzbekistan had sailed back for a safe harbor in Russia’s orbit, the name sharpened to the GUAM. A sharper brand name certainly communicates a sharper sense of purpose. Among pundits, the GUAM creates a strong association with Guam, a major US military base in the Pacific. The GUAM summits have customarily enjoyed participation by US and EU representatives. In this regard, they provide a nexus for the pro-Western administrations in Ukraine and Georgia in their pursuit of NATO and EU membership.

The Kremlin, unable to control its allergic reaction to the ‘colored’ revolutions in these countries, slapped them with a flu of self-styled sanctions. Ukraine, for instance, swallowed a steep increase in natural gas prices plus a ban on its meat and diary products in Russia. As for Georgia, this tiny state encountered gas supply disruptions and has had its beverage exports wiped out from the Russian market.

Moldova and Azerbaijan, albeit untouched by ‘colored’ revolutions, still can’t escape having frictions with Russia.

Moldova’s soft Communist regime wrangles with Russia over the breakaway region of Transdniesteria, to which Russia funnels support. As the Kremlin stirs ferment in Moldova’s backyard, cratefuls of Moldovan wine get bulldozed in front of the cameras during hatemongering binges in Moscow. So goes the archetypal two-in-one approach popular in the Kremlin’s geopolitical distillery.

Azerbaijan’s authoritarian oligarchy may not want to risk its oil business in another bloody territorial dispute with pro-Russian Armenia. But that sort of live-and-let-live axiom doesn’t save the Azeri community in Russia from being the subject and victim of bigoted campaign ads and violent xenophobic attacks.

In fact, Armenian immigrants hardly fare any better.

Carrying the weight of the world on their shoulders, the four presidents met in Kyiv to ease their regional burdens by giving the GUAM another try. They set out to upgrade it to a full-time organization called the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development. The counter-CIS concept dwells on one simple idea: leverage. That’s exactly what the Kyiv quartet looks forward to — building an organization that will provide the leverage needed to prevent Russia from imposing its will on weaker neighbors.

Shortly after arriving in Kyiv, Georgian President Saakashvili, a graduate of the School of International Law at Kyiv State University, moved into position. He rushed to the Georgian Winefest, where he drew crowds in a heartfelt endorsement for his country’s key industry. Russia, which used to be Georgia’s major market, claims that the ban aims to stop the flood of counterfeit shipments from Georgia. While accepting some of the blame, Georgia insists that most of the counterfeit shipments originate from outside Georgia and that the ban has little to do with trade practices in the first place.

Now that Georgia hemorrhages red wine in a cold war with the Kremlin, the Wine of Liberty, as the Georgian marketers brand it, may become the hottest issue among politically savvy connoisseurs. Saakashvili reassured Ukrainian wine producers that Georgia poses no competitive threat to their business, obviously alluding to the higher price points commanded by Georgian brands. The most virulent critic of Russia and the most vivacious communicator, he epitomizes the kind of leader who walks the walk. The only of the four presidents to have studied on both sides of the Atlantic — and perhaps the only foreign leader to think of Kyiv as his stamping ground — Saakashvili arguably has Eurointegration even higher on his radar screen than Yushchenko.

Speaking at a press conference, Moldovan President Voronin welcomed soon-to-be EU members Rumania and Bulgaria to join the club. It was he who suggested rebranding the ‘GUAM’ to the ‘Organization for Democracy and Economic Development,’ in a bid to bolster enlargement.

Unwilling to further strain relations with Russia, Azeri President Aliev glossed over the ODED not being an anti-Russian organization. Still, he stated that his country had reviewed its energy policy for a more favorable outlook toward the ODED. Such equilibristic assertiveness may indicate that Azerbaijan, with its vast Caspian oil reserves and the backing of Western oil companies, positions itself to fill a niche in the European market. At a time when oil reaches record high prices and Russia raises reliability concerns, Azerbaijan could shake the rust off the Odessa-Brody pipeline.

President Yushchenko, who, compared to Saakashivili, remained more of a dove on the CIS, stressed the idea of a free trade zone within the ODED. What remains to be seen is whether the ODED will live beyond the bureaucracy. Will it become just another toothless paper tiger of nothing more than confetti value? Or will it become a vehicle for advancing common interests of real counter-CIS value?

Cheney Chews out Energy Empire

Vice President Dick Cheney grabbed the Russian bear by the balls, in what sounds like the most vicious and delicious diatribe ever from the Bush administration’s Russian cuisine. As a guest speaker at a geopolitical get-together in Vilnius, Lithuania, Cheney made headlines by dishing out hot potatoes on the Kremlin’s conduct of foreign policy. Describing Russia’s current state of affairs, he used the words backsliding and blackmail.

Cheney, who has a background in the energy sector, elaborated on Russia’s decreasing democracy coupled with its increasing role as a global energy supplier. That the vestiges of the evil empire keep protruding themselves in Russia’s self-proclaimed vision of an energy empire breaks no news. Many of the Black and Baltic Sea leaders who assembled in Vilnius had long solicited Washington’s concurrence on their diagnosis of Moscow’s condition. The forum attracted not-so-big countries with not-so-small problems. Indeed, counties like Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine seek prosperity through preserving the fruits of democracy from the fungi of Russian despotism.

Vice President Cheney became the third top-level conservative to speak openly against Russia’s blackmail-thy-neighbor behavior. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice holds the lead for having vented her view on Moscow’s gasmanship. Senator John McCain has repeatedly reflected on the Russian issue and has urged President Bush to boycott the July G8 summit in St. Petersburg. Experts believe both Rice and McCain will run for the Republican nomination for president in 2008.

Dick Cheney, a controversial figure loathed by liberals, still deserves respect from a purely Ukrainian point of view. In the late 80s, then-Congressman Cheney visited Chernobyl. He avidly supported Ukraine’s independence when the USSR could no longer support itself. As Secretary of Defense in the Senior Bush administration and a major hawk, he helped a chicken Kiev gourmet Bush see the forest for the trees.

The Kremlin and the conservative camp seem all the more at odds. In the gung-ho days of the GOP’s rodeo on terror, Bush and Putin used to ride together. We all remember that Kodak moment when Dubya looked into Puttie’s eyes and got a sense of his soul. It was a wedding ceremony where Condi, a distinguished Sovietologist and then-NSC adviser, played the maid of honor. With the honeymoon in full swing, Moscow made no big fuss when Washington withdrew from the ABM treaty.

Being Bush’s staunch ally supplied Putin with the geopolitical currency needed to buy Washington’s silent stamp of approval on Moscow’s imperial designs in the near abroad. One version has it that, while the US went after the axis of evil, the Kremlin framed the Kuchma regime to put Ukraine into its wheel cart. Much to Putin’s gastronomic advantage, on the eve of Operation Shock and Awe, the Kolchuha scandal set off shock waves on both sides of the Atlantic, portraying Kuchma as Hussein’s accomplice and casting Ukraine into monthlong isolation.

Thanks to the relatively low US Army casualties, lack of trophy evidence of the Kolchuha transfer, and the dispatch of 1,600 Ukrainian troops to Iraq, Kuchma redeemed some of his political value. That didn’t help his successor strategy, though. The rest is history — and something Russia can’t reconcile with.

In addition to Ukraine, Russia’s hit list also includes Georgia and Moldova. Russia has banned wine imports from these countries, apparently trying to strangle their chief source of earnings. Meanwhile, Russia continues catering to the separatist enclaves in these countries. Georgia’s Abkhazia, Adzharia, and South Ossetia, as well as Moldova’s Transdniesteria, operate as Russia’s pet geopolitical subsidiaries.

Whether it’s American crusaders or Russian regionalists, the tug-of-war between Washington and Moscow has not ceased. The Bush administration is credited with record budget deficits and tax cuts for the rich. America often behaves like a bull in a China shop. Likewise, Cheney is no saint, but when it comes to Russia he calls a spade a spade. Ukraine stands to benefit from the balance-of-power effects that stem from the Cold War instincts of his cohort.

Babysitting fledgling democracies requires no troop deployments. As the West counters Russia’s predatory posture diplomatically, it will help Russia reinvent itself and become a reliable partner.

Chernobyl Check: Is FOX News into Fahrenheit 9/11?
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,191721,00.html

Your editorial on Chernobyl simply attempts to swing the scales of history in your favor. Marketed as an attempt to redress the balance, it pokes fun at the fiction just as it fools around with the fact. By recycling research on a faraway country you hardly know — in a one-sided fashion and through the prism of your domestic debate — you treat your audience to a distorted view.

So what’s the big deal?
With its biased “X-ray scan,” your editorial effectively puts a clean bill of health on a festering wound of a disaster, a disaster that has affected thousands of lives in ways unmatched by your exposure to it.

By showcasing a catalogue of overblown projections of Chernobyl’s global impact, produced by Western academia and activists, your op-ed sidetracks the issue of Chernobyl’s local legacy. Does it offer interviews with the victims and their families? Does it address the scope of day-to-day problems experienced by contaminated communities in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia? Unfortunately, no. The article lacks a first-hand field-trip dimension.

Staying on guard against The Guardian and UN-lie-teralism
Instead the article provides an introduction to self-compromising freakonomics practiced by Ukrainian officials. Their ballpark estimates ring a nasty bell, don’t they? Bottom line: Perceived as a mouthpiece of Greenpeace, Ukraine immediately qualifies for “most-unfavored-nation” status in the eyes of Americans. One can only guess at the number of conservative Americans influenced by word of mouth. Except for the countless Ukrainian Americans among them. They may have a better grasp of things.

Capitalizing on The Guardian as an intellectually impeccable guide on Ukraine may lead you up another blind alley. This well-established stronghold of the anti-American media has repeatedly traced the Orange Revolution to CIA payrolls. If you accept their side of the story at face value, please tell Director Goss that I want my $10,000 paycheck now, interest included — lol.

Your op-ed proudly quotes a UN report that portrays Chernobyl as something to be taken down a peg in the hall of self-martyrdom. Of course, the prong of your argument is invested in an organization that boasts so much credibility on the Activist Street. However gladly embraced by the media, that intimate relationship does not guarantee instant gratification in terms of foolproof fact-finding.

Do you believe that a bunch of fly-by-night UN bureaucrats, with vast resources and vague responsibilities, made a good faith effort to read my country? These guys, who drive around in caravans of tinted-window SUVs, talk about a “dependency culture.” Dependency on what? Monthly disability benefits of 60 bucks? Well, on Ukraine’s cost-of-living calculator, that doesn’t even cover the bare necessities, let alone medical bills, of which there are many. Alas, UN personnel salaries run a hundred times over what they assume to be dependency-generating. If there were an award for “Best Bureaucracy with Reverse Clientitis,” the UN would get it.

The strategy behind the UN calculus
Casualty-cutting meets cost-cutting, as simple as that. The 50 adults/9 children death toll produces a mixed reaction among stakeholders. It strikes a high note with the haves on the East River, who only heard about Chernobyl on the news and would hate to be on the “rip-off” list. In contrast, it strikes a low note with the have-nots on the Prypyat River, who bore the brunt of Chernobyl and would hate to be on the “write-off” list. Since the plant’s shutdown in 2000, the international community has repeatedly softpedaled its pledge of financial support for the badly needed sarcophagus changeover.

Let there be no doubt: Keeping a tight lid on Chernobyl’s nuclear powder barrel concerns all humanity. That’s why keeping tabs on its status presents the worst of occasions for the UN to be open to political bias.

How do Ukrainians feel about it? Emotionally speaking, the UN report amounts to claiming that only a hundred people died in the September 11 attacks, and the rest were cured. Rationally speaking, it raises a lot of technical questions.

Background: In the wake of the accident, clean-up crews had been called up from all over the USSR. Questions: Did the UN report follow the life of every “volunteer” who had shoveled the hellishly radioactive debris off the reactor’s roof so the wind could not carry it all over the world? How many are still alive? Since the USSR no longer exists, is there a real-time cross-country database of all children and adults who have died of leukemia, thyroid cancer, and related illnesses since April 26, 1986? This may sound tactless, but does it include Raisa Gorbachev, who died of thyroid cancer in 2000? How many are struggling for their lives?

Lessons learned
Chernobyl is not a case study of Greenpeace gone bad. It’s a case study of Gulag gone bad. From the Kremlin’s point of view, building a four-reactor power plant within eighty miles of the third-largest city was a good idea. In a country where life was a cheap commodity, management’s disregard for safety was the hallmark of corporate culture.

Ironically, Gorby’s failure to go public right after the accident — to keep the folks off the streets in the midst of May Day celebrations — would accelerate the glasnost-perestroika movement to the point of no return. Along with the war in Afghanistan and the earthquake in Armenia, Chernobyl counts among those moments of truth of the 80s that consigned the mammoth of Soviet bureaucracy to the dustbin of history.

Despite the quest for renewables, urged by President Bush in his State of the Union address, humanity will hardly get by without nuclear energy in the near term.

That’s why safety and accountability matter so much. Nuclear energy has no failsafe future in a world that fails to confront the past. Suppose the Ukrainian government put the 30-kilometer area surrounding Chernobyl, with its majestic forests and wildlife, on eBay for $1. How many BillionairesForBush.com would send their kids and grandkids here on summer vacation? How many CommunistsForKerry.com would come over here to play golf?

One cannot blow the mask off self-serving liberalism with the winds of self-serving conservatism, and vice versa.

At the end of the day, America’s irritation-infatuation with Greenpeace can hardly compare to Ukraine’s involvement with Chernobyl. While the liberals and conservatives of America keep pointing fingers at each other, we the people of Ukraine are left holding the bag.

Thank you, VOA, RFE/RL, BBC
You guys did a great job. You operated the kind of scaremongering machine that scared Big Brother into extinction.

While out of town on weekends, many Soviet folks tuned their radios to these channels, jammed as they were by the KGB. With their ears sharp and cutting through all the noise, these freedom-seeking folks flocked for a dose of freedom of information. That’s how they learned about Chernobyl and the health hazards it posed. They learned it from the US and British governments, run by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

I do hope that Fox News has more than a dose of freedom of information to offer twenty years since then. And I do believe that America’s freedom gene has not mutated.

We’re Almost There: Fishing for a Coalition Nears Completion

As they grapple with the election results that spell a dramatic seesaw of power between them, the “Orange Orchestra” finally seem to be getting their act together. To discuss the shape of things to come, the leaders of all five incoming parliamentary factions met with President Yushchenko in his executive suite on Bankova Street. Afterwards, they moved outdoors and issued statements, the most notable of which was Yuliya Tymoshenko’s. The Lady of Maidan unveiled her vision of a tripartite BYT-NSNU-SPU coalition, whose launch she estimated to be a matter of days. She minced no words when she added that the opposition could expect to chair several Rada committees and the Oversight Board. Trying to maintain an air of self-confidence, yet scrambling for words, Yanukovych expressed his readiness to assume an opposition role.

Three weeks have passed since the Ukrainians took to the polls to decide which parties best represent their interests in legislatures of all levels. When handed four separate ballot sheets — populated by more than thirty parties apiece — voters had their attention span strained as never before. The forces of democratic Darwinism unleashed by these papyruses have spared only five chariots at the national level. Known by their Ukrainian acronyms, they scored as follows:

PRU — 32.14, or 186 seats
BYT — 22.29, or 129 seats
NSNU — 13.95, or 81 seats
CPU — 5.69, or 33 seats
KPU — 3.66, or 21 seats

They will be proud entrants into the pyramid of Ukrainian parliamentarism. As for the also-rans, few of them will experience a political afterlife. With all due respect, or lack of it, as the case may be, outparliament mummification will be their most likely lot.

No matter how vocal the claims of fraud and demands for vote recounts, the litmus test for the Ukrainian democracy came out pretty clean. Even the Kremlin alchemists found themselves undersupplied on the public relations clout with which to attack the results. After all, their coachee has carried the Rust and Sun Belts, chalking up a plurality of votes nationwide.

Ironically, NSNU, the core party behind the Orange Revolution, which had given Ukraine the wings of democracy, made a belly landing in this election. Caught in the turbulence of scandals that shook its reputation, NSNU lost millions of voters, who switched to BYT, making it the most powerful Orange party. No wonder, with a meager 13.95 percent of the vote, compared to BYT’s 22.29 percent, NSNU top brass called in sick for a few days. In this shameful boost-bust scene, Tymoshenko starred as the centerfold of the election, while Yushchenko posed as the emperor with no clothes.

In what appears to be a clear-cut case of “you’re OK, I’m not OK,” NSNU did the most backpedaling, providing a major reason why the “Orange Orchestra” has failed to dovetail, thus far. The BYT-NSNU-SPU coalition went off to a series of false starts. Each side claimed being taken advantage of. Sensing the situation, the Regionalists started giving NU the glad eye, despite the oceans of bad blood between them.

Rumors of marriage by arrangement between PRU and NSNU sent shock waves among grassroots Yushchenko supporters. For Yushchenko, the lofty ambition of “uniting” Ukraine would hardly yield any political dividends in the Rust and Sun Belts. But it would definitely amount to a harakiri in the Grain and Brain Belts, NSNU’s home base. Terrified by the prospect of such bloody bedfellowship, which would condemn her to the outskirts of the parliamentary powerstruggle, the desperate amazon moved into action. She bearded the lion in his den with a revelation-packed bombing campaign, attempting to beat him into coalition.
It worked. By now it appears that NSNU has turned down a back vocals gig in the "Blue Band" and turned its face toward the "Orange Orchestra." The coveted PM post remains the main bone of contention in the coalition talks, though. Tymoshenko, who would take a backseat to no one, has insisted on the “first-come, first-served” mandate. She argues that her claim on the PM post mirrors the voting results, as she came first of all three would-be coalition partners. Unlike the SPU, who raised no objections, NSNU counteroffered with a “first-goals, then-roles” philosophy.

Yushchenko calls for a straight talk on goals. To avoid a repeat of dysfunctional debris, the team should hold a jamming session and make sure they see eye to eye on the economy.

Of course, this approach to coalition fishing will not discharge Tymoshenko from casting her net over the PM post. No coalition will come into being without her being the PM. But once she gets appointed, she must read the signs. She must vaccinate herself with the awareness that they are in the same boat. And in her capacity as conductor, she must always exercise her baton to help the "Orange Orchestra" wrap their talents around team play. She must carry an awareness-tuning fork with which to keep them on the same wavelength.

It’s never OK to have no conflicts. All successful teams run into conflicts. But rather than duck and stockpile them — until they explode — successful teams confront and resolve them.

The "Orange Orchestra" are on a mission to strike the right chords with this country. It means netting a better GDP without letting democracy and the social contract slip away.

Yanukovych rates your coalition as short-lived. If he turns out to be right, he’ll storm you off stage before you know it. Don’t let him be right.

European Commission Unmoved by Europarliament’s Suggestion of Associate Membership for Ukraine

Impressed by Ukraine’s stride for democracy, the Europarliament has petitioned the European Commission to open talks with Ukraine on associate membership. To no avail, so far: The European Commission nixed the initiative.

The counties of the so-called New Europe, Poland and the Baltics especially, have been the most enthusiastic observers of Ukraine’s ideological exodus from Putinese Russia. They have witnessed the difference democracy makes on the other side of the EU curtain. Alas, their ugly duckling neighbor Ukraine equips itself with checks-and-balances avionics and takes wing as a benchmark democracy in the non-EU airspace of the former Soviet Union.

That’s why the rookies in the Europarliament have been steadfast in cheerleading for Ukraine. They never stopped persuading the European Commission, dominated by apparatchiks from the Old Europe, to keep the door open on Ukraine. Undoubtedly, Ukraine deserves a little bonus for its “Le Bourget act,” not the blind eye it has been getting from the European Commission. A little change of heart from countries like France and Germany — the heart of the Old Europe — would mean a lot.

Now that Schroeder has shriveled out of sight and Berlusconi bombed out, Putin’s “Old Europosse” will no longer dog Ukraine with the knee-jerk intensity they used to. Prodi hardly counts among the fans of Ukraine, but he no longer presides over the European Commission. And his intellectual capacity leaves room for hope. Is there a disconnect between the Ukrainian Dream and the European value system? Not really, if we scan the younger cohorts. When it comes to the social contract, French youths never hesitate to stage their own version of Maidan.

Europe has a vast array of burning issues: the welfare state, immigration, demographics, etc. Of course, it will take years for the EU to absorb new members and for Ukraine to be considered for full membership. Still, the Old Europe should not confuse Ukraine’s “values voyage” with a mere “vacation.” We’ve come a long way and we’re in for the long haul. So please don’t try to leave us out in the cold. Don’t “good neighbor” us. Let’s build a Europe that is not embalmed with Euro-euphemisms.

Belated Belarus: When Will Europe’s Last Dictatorship Graduate to Democracy?

Long live Lukashenka, Belarus’ president-elect, whose “re-election” for a third term highlights his dictatorial lifestyle. According to election authorities, Alyaksander Lukashenka championed a whopping 82 percent of the vote while opposition leaders Alyaksander Milinkevich never made it past single digits. These democratically maladaptive voting patterns characterize a dependent, closed-circuit culture unable to defuse the cause of its mental condition.

Never in their wildest dreams had Belarusians imagined that Lukashenka would be here for a haul that long. A collective farm manager, he had harvested the 1994 election amid an ideological famine caused by the socioeconomic turbulence of the early days of the post-Soviet era. Struggling to find the answers to a mounting avalanche of bread-and-butter problems, common folks raided their mental closets for mothballed Soviet mantras.

Lukashenka seemed to read their minds. But the Soviet mantras on his inventory never made him a masterful manager. Also known as “бацька” (bah-ts-kah), or father, he has spent all these years shaping his country’s future with an anachronistic mindset. His strategy: Keep Belarus in Russia’s orbit in exchange for discount energy supplies. Eventual reunification seems to be part of the deal, but this commitment has been punctuated with intense bureaucratic turf battles between Minsk and Moscow. Bottom line: A poor and paternalistic society, lost in space and time, shunned by the rest of the international community, much like a mental institution.

Cheap energy supplies from Russia — the lifeblood of the Lukashenka regime — have nourished the Belarusian welfare state. Its modest blessings account for the backbone of his grass-roots support. Traditionally, Lukashenka has drawn support from older, Sovietized Belarusians. These people have a chronic crush on the communist past, a past that covered their bare necessities and held the promise of a “bright future.”

On closer examination, Russia’s feeding tube has all the proportions of a geopolitical control chord. This symbiotic arrangement offers a perfect “gastrointestinal” scope into the innards of both countries’ politico-economic models. What makes Belarus different is its cloistered and cathetered quasi-communism, as opposed to Russia’s crony and commodity capitalism of 33 Forbes-rated billionaires. On all other counts, Belarus’ serves as a magnifying lens for everything that’s wrong with Russia. Identity crisis. Big Brother. Obsolete economy. Addiction to paternalism.

No wonder, younger Belarusians do not subscribe to Lukashenka’s business plan. They challenge their country’s father-knows-best culture. True, their Jeans Revolution has failed to ignite the jaded masses. In a country of almost zero interest group dynamics and a tightened KGB grip, the opposition fell badly short on financial, organizational, and media support. Many kids will end up in jail. But this is not the end. It’s just the beginning. When they go home, they should set their hearts and minds to winning the hearts and minds of others.

There’s no agent of change like youth. Enlightened youth activists should spread their vision of a free and modernized Belarus. Big Brother must go. The Belarus Brainpower brand should retire him. The generation gap should serve as a creative destruction tool with which to bridge the gap between the Belarus of yesterday and tomorrow.

They should embark on door-to-door Promethean politics, raising awareness, inspiring people to believe in themselves, and thus rekindling the fire in Belarus’ belly. To shake the tyranny off its back, Belarus must stop crawling and learn to walk. Isolating Belarus won’t melt the ice. Using a flexible combination of sticks and carrots, the West should engage the regime in ways that would let the warm breeze of freedom slip through the cracks.

It took four years for Ukraine to move from “Ukraine without Kuchma” sit-ins to the Orange Revolution. On the eve of the parliamentary election Ukraine has a choice, something Belarus hasn’t experienced for more than a decade. Going the distance from ugly duckling to swan — from dictatorship to democracy — will not be an easy journey. As Belarus moves along, Ukraine will have its own political storms to weather. And when it does, Ukraine should ruffle its feathers and act as a role model for Belarus.