100% Counted: Alien, 35.32%; Predator, 25.05%

“No matter who wins, we lose.”


Yanukovych, 35.32%
Tymoshenko, 25.05%
Tihipko, 13.16%
Yatsenyuk, 6.96%
Yushchenko, 5.45%
Symonenko, 3.55%
Lytvyn, 2.35%
Against all, 2.2%
Tyahnybok, 1.43%
Hrytsenko, 1.2%
Bohoslovska, 0.41%
Moroz, 0.38%
Kostenko, 0.22%
Suprun, 0.19%
Protyvsikh, 0.16%
Pabat, 0.14%
Ratushnyak, 0.12%
Brodsky, 0.06%
Ryabokon, 0.03%

The first round has become yet another triumph of style over substance and promise over practice.

The second round will be perceived as bipolar by many, but will hardly be any different.

Without transparent campaign finance, without a mature voting culture and without grassroots protests, free and fair elections go only so far.

To me, it will be Alien vs. Predator.

After voting Tymoshenko in ‘06, ‘07 and ‘08 — and watching her all the while — I don’t believe in a born-again Tymoshenko. Not anymore.

Sources:
http://pravda.com.ua/articles/4b537cbbca600

Exit Poll Data: Yanukovych, 31.5%; Tymoshenko, 27.2%

The National Exit Poll 2010:
Yanukovych, 31.5%
Tymoshenko, 27.2%
Tihipko, 13.5%
Yatsenyuk, 7.8%
Yushchenko, 6%
Symonenko, 2.8%
Against all, 2.7%
Lytvyn, 2.4%
Tyahnybok, 2.1%
Hrytsenko, 1.7%
Moroz, 0.5%
Bohoslovska, 0.4%
Suprun, 0.2%

Learn more here.

Sources:
http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/4b53427d2fdea/

Moroz Concedes Defeat, Takes Parting Shots at Tymoshenko’s Premiership

Oleksandr Moroz, the outgoing Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, unveils his vision of the next government in a Holos Ukrayiny article. Ukrayinska Pravda and Obkom quote from his acerbic musings.

Moroz says that society, similar to an individual, learns from experience.

"Його (досвід) необхідно якомога раніше одержати. Тому хотілося б, щоб уряд Тимошенко було створено і щоб він пропрацював хоча б два роки. Рік, коли у невдачах будуть звинувачувати попередній уряд. Рік - коли звинувачувати буде нікого".

It [experience] should be gained as soon as possible. That’s why I desire that the Tymoshenko government be formed, and that it operate for at least two years. A year when the previous government will be blamed, and a year when there will be no one left to blame.

A graceful valedictory endorsement, isn’t it?

Photo courtesy of AP

LIMO or LIMI? Diet Orange or Bitter Blue?

With 4 percent of the vote still to be counted, dreams of a slim Orange coalition BYuT (30.81%) and NUNS (14.27%), may be shattered. The LIMO (Lytvyn in, Moroz out) flow assumption appears less than safe. Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched!

Under the LIMI (Lytvyn in, Moroz in) flow assumption, the balance of power may shift dramatically — and not in the Oranges’ favor.

The math makes Lytvyn a mercenary, and puts him in Moroz’s behavioral niche. Under a worst-case scenario, the SPU surpasses the 3 percent threshold, and joins forces with the PRU (34.19%), KPU (5.37%) and LyB (3.98%). Should this scenario prevail, it’s the Blues who will gain a razor-thin majority.

In a Rada where seats are in short supply, Volodymyr Lytvyn will sell his services to the highest bidder.

Who is Mr. Lytvyn? Kuchma’s chief of staff (1996-2000) involved in the Gongadze scandal; leader of the pro-Kuchma ZaYedu bloc in the 2002 parliamentary election; a PhD in history caught in the act of plagiarism; speaker of the Rada (2002-2006); and an also-ran in the 2006 parliamentary election.

This year, his third-party platform has propelled him back to the Rada, where he will seek to exercise his “golden share” leverage.

Summary of the Ukrainian Parliamentary Campaign 2007
Who's Who in Political Advertising

Achievers: PRU, BYuT, NUNS, KPU
Strugglers: SPU, LyB, PSPU

PRU
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Regions
http://partyofregions.org.ua/eng/


Over the last year, our leaders have proved a lot to us. Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions have proved that they have the experience and true leadership qualities to achieve results. What have the Orange Revolution leaders proved? That politicians unable to work together cannot run the government. That power is more important to them than improving the lives of ordinary people. Protect your future. Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions: a proven track record of results for Ukraine.


Orange revolutionaries promised us a lot of good things. But instead of economic growth, we ended up with a surge in unemployment and a price hike. Instead of Ukraine’s recognition in the international arena we ended up in an argument with Russia. Instead of government reform, we witnessed incessant turf battles and corruption, which prompted Yushchenko to fire Tymoshenko. The inability of Orange leaders to work together is a proven fact. To get rid of the Orange chaos, vote Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions.


In a democracy the power belongs to the people. That’s why Viktor Yanukovych proposed the initiative to hold a referendum on making Russian a second official language, on adhering to a policy of nonalignment with regard to our foreign partners, and on empowering the people with the right to elect their governors directly, instead of kowtowing to the President’s cronies. Don’t waste your vote. Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions. Protect your deepest values.


Why elect a PM candidate who was once fired for incompetence? The Tymoshenko government was sacked because its irresponsible policies had lead to economic contraction, artificial international conflicts and price hikes. Now she does not want to look the people in the eye, alleging that she has achieved a great success. But if she was such a good prime minister, then why would they fire her? The people know why, and will not let themselves be scammed again.


Together we can stop them. Tymoshenko and the Oranges are against a referendum on Russian as a second official language. They are dragging Ukraine into military alliances. They want to put their cronies and lyubi druzi in the governors’ seats in every oblast. The Party of Regions is initiating a referendum to stop their encroachments on our values. Don’t waste your vote. The Party of Regions. Protect your deepest values.

BYuT
http://ibyut.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yulia_Tymoshenko_Bloc


They cheated and sold out. They clang to their seats and reached for their guns. Betrayal and political corruption became a challenge for the country. But we didn’t crumble. We didn’t give in. There will be a new election. Justice has prevailed.


You are tired of politics. You think that your elected representatives forgot you and are fighting for power. True, there is a fight going on — between our political team and a few family clans that have pocketed three-thirds of Ukraine’s national wealth. They, relying on the power of money, have destroyed the victory of Maidan. Don’t be naive. They don’t care what language you speak; whether Ukraine will be independent or will merge into a new Soviet Union; whether we will be in NATO or not. What they do care about is how much money they will make off Ukraine. They are the shadowy lords of the companies you work for, and you vote as they say. They are buying television channels and are messing with your mind and choice. But I believe that in the early election you will break this vicious circle, and life will be born in Ukraine. And no matter how much they will defame me, make no mistake: In this great struggle I’m with you, and the time of your victory has finally come.


Michelle Nostradamus: Prophecy 2007

The Dame will gain power without any quarrel
Freedom, untaintedness, safety, and so
The plague of foul words shall have no more explosions
Without any war she will bring it closure


China’s economic miracle, Japan’s intellectual revolution, the great leap forward by Asian tigers such as South Korea and Taiwan. They’ve made a real breakthrough in the economies and sciences of their countries. We, too, are not satisfied with today’s questionable evolution. We offer our Ukrainian Breakthrough, a strategy for national development. This plan should finally be written by us, by our Ukrainian scientists and intellectuals. Let us stop relying on foreign consultants. We offer to create a national strategic assembly that will pool the intellectual potential of the country. Let us believe in ourselves and put forward living standards that will set an example for the entire globe. Share your ideas and knowledge with Ukraine. The new government, in the new Verkhovna Rada, will adopt the Ukrainian Breakthrough strategy. The time has come for real work to start.


Andriy Kozhemyakin, Major-General: Military reform is needed in Ukraine. Only a professional, combat-ready army can effectively protect the sovereignty of an independent Ukraine.
Mykola Kostrov, Rear Admiral: Young people should study, while the country’s defense should be entrusted to professionals, who will have fair pay and living conditions.
Mykola Petruk, Colonel-General: As early as next year, it is realistic to abandon conscription, and by the end of 2009 to finalize the сhangeover to a professional army. Ukraine’s rebirth starts with the rebirth of the Ukrainian armed forces.

NUNS
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Ukraine
http://razom.org.ua


Corrupt official: Here you go. Check it one more time.
“Little Ukrainian:” Excuse me…
Corrupt official: And who’s this?
Official’s assistant: This is the “Little Ukrainian.”
Corrupt official: You mean the people? I see, get him out of here.
“Little Ukrainian:” But this is our country, too.
Official’s assistant: Elections are approaching.
Corrupt official: Okay. Here’s your salary, your pension, and here’s for the kids. Now go on and vote like you should.
Official’s assistant: Are you sure you didn’t give him too much?
Corrupt official: That will buy us a few more years in power.
Voiceover: They’re buying you. Don’t sell out. Nasha Ukrayina-Narodna Samooborona [Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense].



Where exactly is the Party of Regions headed when they talk about lifting parliamentary immunity? Last year, they demanded that the Rada not lift parliamentary immunity. Later on, they changed their point of view, having stated that immunity should be extended to members of their government. Now they agree with their opponents that immunity should be lifted. But they had more than 375 days to make it happen. The problem is that you never know what direction the Party of Regions will take.


People all over the country are suffering from officials’ unlawfulness. By lifting parliamentary immunity we want to lift the magnet that attracts mafia members to parliament, instead of attracting those who will write laws for the people. MPs must live by the same laws — without any allowances — must ride on our roads, use our hospitals, deal with our police and courts. So that they can feel the problems of ordinary people and change the laws for the better. Nasha Ukrayina-Narodna Samooborona [Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense]. One law for all.


What can we expect from yet another Regionalist government? When President Yushchenko offered to raise the salaries of public school teachers and healthcare employees in the next year’s budget, the Regionalist government said no. Raise pensions by 35 percent? Again, no. Raise aid to large families? No! The government of Regionalists wants to be in power again. What will we tell them come Sept. 30? Nasha Ukrayina-Narodna Samooborona [Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense]. One law for all.


Tens of thousands of villages all over Ukraine don’t have a single ambulance. This is dangerous. This is unfair. We will reduce the fleet of luxury cars for government officials and members of parliament, and will provide every village with an ambulance. This is protection. This is fairness. The time for change has come. Nasha Ukrayina-Narodna Samooborona [Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense]. One law for all.

KPU
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Ukraine
http://www.kpu.net.ua


Who are you? A spiritual descendant of Vatutin and Kovpak or of Bandera and Shukhevych? A descendant of those who served Ukrainian Nazis or of those who saved humanity from the brown plague? Remember your name. Take care of your Fatherland. Our number on the ballot sheet is 13.


A mediocre spoof based on The Hunt for Two Rabbits (1961), a popular Soviet comedy about a late 19th-century Kyiv polygamist-con artist who courts two young ladies, but ends up with his cover blown and his plans ruined. In this ad, Svyryd Golokhvastov, the main character “impersonates” President Yushchenko

Golokhvastov: For us true patriots, the ideals of Maidan are higher than the Lavra Bellfry. And if from the heights of Bankova Street [Office of the President] you stare down, the folks underneath, with their problems, appear so teeny-weeny, like mice. Pardon me, like rats.
Golokhvastov's never-to-be in-laws: Isn’t he smart! Awesome!


Yes to democracy! Down with dictatorship! Time to elect a fair government. Vote for the Communist Party of Ukraine, No. 13 on the ballot sheet.

SPU
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_of_Ukraine
http://spu.in.ua


Dear citizens! Today you see splashy ads of various parties, but there’s only one choice you have. There are those who promise their voters the “moon,” but struggle for power by flouting the Constitution. And yet there are people who call for laws to be observed and who suggest systemic changes. We should change not the faces, but the function of government, change the quality of life of the entire society. All rights and power to local citizens!


My fellow compatriots, the snap election gamble that Viktor Yushchenko has embarked on is a war against the Constitution, the judiciary and the local government reform. The Socialists are keeping the commitments they undertook before the voters, and are putting the [pro-Yanukovych] politreforma to work. The President, as always, wants to handpick rayon [country] and oblast [state] chiefs. Yushchenko’s goal is to become Kuchma. The Socialists’ goal is to vest the power in communities.


My fellow compatriots, I, Vasyl Tsushko, hereby report to you that under my leadership of the Ministry of the Interior the murder rate has decreased by 12 percent, and robbery by 15 percent. The MoI has upheld the law and citizen security. The Socialists and our leader, Oleksandr Moroz will not countenance civil strife in the country and usurpation of power by Yushchenkos, Tymoshenkos and their accomplices.

LyB
http://narodna.kiev.ua
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lytvyn's_Bloc


This is our life. This is our government. The government is the life. People deserve better than this — and better ones. I’m coming back to put a stop to misgovernment and to confer a just order. Volodymyr Lytvin. Honesty, integrity, professionalism.


Volodymyr Lytvyn. At a turning point for this country, head of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn upheld the law, stopped the anarchy, and prevented bloodshed at the presidential election. Without his wit, strength, and tactfulness, the country has succumbed to wiles, cynicism, and deceit. Stop! The country needs a politician of resolve and responsibility. Lytvyn means order in the Rada, the rule of law in the country, the prosperity and confidence of everyone. The country needs Lytvyn.


I’m addressing each and every one of you. Has life gotten any better? Are you satisfied with prices and bills? Is healthcare affordable? Do you have housing opportunities? Are you sure that your land will not be taken away from you? My answer and yours is no! I will stand for all who were forgotten by the present authorities. This is my oath. Vote for the Lytvyn bloc, No. 7 on the ballot sheet.

PSPU
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Socialist_Party_of_Ukraine
http://www.vitrenko.org.ua


Let’s protect our country from being robbed by oligarchs, from land grabs and NATO occupation. Don’t be a traitor. Vote for No. 12, Natalia Vitrenko’s Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine.


A pompous Soviet/WW II-style ad interpolated with “Sacred War” and a Levitan-like voiceover.

From the people’s information bureau: Today, at Yushchenko’s whim, Ukraine is being dragged into NATO. Our Motherland and the lives of our children have come under threat. We will protect our peace. We will protect Ukraine from NATO. Natalia Vitrenko, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine.


They say “zRadu het!”[Down with parliament!], but still betray each other. They say “we’re for independence,” but still rekindle fascism. They say “we’re for fair elections,” but still fine-tune the election results to fit the political order of things. They’ve worn everyone out. Down with cheaters and liars! Free people should live in a fair society. Natalia Vitrenko, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine.

Parliamentary Campaign Gains Momentum

In the close race of the 2007 campaign, the main contenders claim credit and assign blame as they see fit.

The Party of Regions touts economic growth (but not the underlying income distribution) and exploits its self-styled notion of stabilnist, or political stability, as the vote-getter. On closer examination, one can detect paternalistic, if not cronyist, undercurrents in that value proposition.

PM Yanukovych will strive to atone for the broken promise of “better living today” with modest last-minute wage increases. Fearing a damning referendum on its "regionomic" policies, the Blue camp will frame the Orange camp for “putting spokes in its wheels.”

Note the extensive use of fear appeals early in the PRU campaign — a defection prevention program targeted at its core electorate. Later on, however, tub-thumping and attack advertising was phased out in favor of soft-sell and contrast techniques that appeal to undecideds, the most coveted prize.

BYuT and NUNS are vying for a bigger slice of the Orange pie, boastful of their Promethean role in bringing about the elections.

NUNS markets the image of a born-again, gutsy President Yushchenko and the movement to lift parliamentary immunity to end the practice of sheltering lawbreakers. In a me-too manner, the PRU has rolled out its own beggar-thy-MP program to slash the MPs’ overblown salaries and perks.

But experts caution that procedural intricacies and the expected makeup of the next Verkhovna Rada make this noble cause appear more inspirational than operational.

BYuT, energized by its victory in the Constitutional Court that restores public employee benefits, will expand on its leader’s feminine mystique.

Nothing works better for her than the charismatic notion of girlpower: the heart-in-hand icon of a justice-seeking amazon that Tymoshenko has cultivated over the years. It perfectly sets her apart from the rest of the Orange camp, largely a boys’ club.

And by the way, her emotionally charged Joan of Arc ethos has found a new creative outlet. Few have failed to notice cryptic ads featuring handpicked “endorsements” from Michelle Nostradamus, the 16th-century French apothecary whose writings are widely interpreted as prophetic. Many viewers might be intrigued by the idea that this source, well-known in Ukraine, has something important to say about her.

Even more politically provocative were some of her other ads. Ukrainian television channels unanimously refused to air an ad that lumped together Yushchenko, Moroz, and Kuchma until it was edited for “political correctness.” The publicity this story generated on the Web more than offset any losses due to censorship. The Ukrainian Breakthrough, Tymoshenko’s can-do white paper, caused a commotion in cognoscenti circles.

The campaign will climax in September, as vacation season draws to a close and people pour back into their daily lives.

Caught in Crossfire of Cold War II
Putin Blasts ‘Tyranny in Ukraine;' Adviser to Yushchenko Persona Non Grata in Russia

A lingering political crisis still grips Ukraine. Over the last few weeks, we have witnessed a Serduchka-caliber performance by Yanukovych, who is now something of a drag queen for elections, acting in consort with diehard naysayer Moroz. We’ve also seen Yushchenko covering his bases with yet a third decree, which cements the agreed election date at Sep. 30.

Russia, whose presidential campaign kicks into gear amid historically high tensions with the West, has refused to be a passive observer in Ukraine’s internal affairs. Cold War II, Putin’s successor strategy, thrives on the phantom fear of NATO aggression. Among experts, there’s an industry-wide interpretation of it being a propaganda ploy with which to galvanize Russian society along the lines of anti-Americanism and Pax Sovietica nostalgia. The tagline, therefore, should read something like this: “They've got us surrounded. What are we, a bunch of suckers?”

The script appears to be simple and stupid:

Step one, brainwashing. Convince the Russian public that NATO, acting through its ‘puppet regimes’ in Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltics, plots Russia’s total destruction.

Step two, solution-selling. Peddle “Baby Putin” as the one and only superman capable of saving Russia from this axis of evil.

By arousing patriotic sentiment at home, the Kremlin has successfully diverted attention from its routine business of siphoning gas and oil revenue to offshore banks. Educating the West on the virtues of Russian democracy has been a hard sell, though.

In his recent remarks — a melange of self-deprecating posturing and sarcasm — Putin joked about having spiritual ties with Mahatma Gandhi, whose death he said left him ‘with no one to talk to.’ To make it even more funny, he went on to picture himself as a ‘democrat of the purest kind,’ one whose hopes have been dashed by Ukraine’s ‘drift toward tyranny.’

Recently, Mr. GasPutin, as he is often nicknamed, has re-energized his rhetoric about ‘Ukraine living off cheap Russian energy.’ More heat came Tuesday when Russian authorities denied Mykola Zhulynsky entry to the country, preventing Yushchenko’s adviser and former Ukrainian minister of culture from visiting his relatives’ grave.

The incident opens another chapter in the persona non grata warfare between Ukraine and Russia. Zhulynsky, a moderate nationalist whose views pose as big a threat to Russia as French cultural protectionism would do to Hollywood, was picked as the target of a diplomatic reprisal. It turns out Ukraine had incurred the wrath of the Kremlin when it had blacklisted Aleksandr Dugin, the famous Russian political scientist with a neo-imperialist agenda.

For a country frequented by high-profile foreign politicos who treat its independence with disdain and publicly challenge its territorial integrity, Ukraine has shown a profound degree of tolerance and hospitality. Few countries would tolerate that sort of behavior on their soil.

Unlike Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Konstantin Zatulin, whose persona non grata status has recently expired, allowing them to test Ukraine’s patience again, Mykola Zhulynsky carried no bag of tricks with him. Ukrainian foreign affairs minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has vowed to raise the issue with Russian leadership.

A Soap Opera Turned Action Movie?
All Is Not Quiet As Kyiv Celebrates Its 1522nd Anniversary

Piskun’s noncompliance with Yushchenko’s decision has injected a dose of adrenaline into an otherwise boring, flatline wrangle over the elections.

Prosecutor Piskun, excommunicated from his powers at a time when Yanukovych most needs him, became a cause celbre for the Coalition, which came to his rescue with police forces under its command.

Interior Minister Tsushko did not hesitate to intervene for his pal. Once at the scene, he and his Berkut task force squeezed out the State Security operatives involved in Piskun’s eviction.

Even though both sides continue trading threats and recriminations, no blood has been shed. Negotiations between President Yushchenko and PM Yanukovych continue at the Office of the President, where the National Security and Defense Council meets in frequent sessions.

Recently Yushchenko issued a decree through which he assumed command of the Internal Troops (the local equivalent of the National Guard). On Yushchenko’s orders, several IT detachments are being currently deployed to Kyiv as a deterrent force against PRU hotshots eager to play with fire.

Amusingly, highway patrolmen, who take orders from Minister Tsushko have obstructed their movement. (This funny picture simply doesn’t add up to the Coalition’s apocalyptic imagery in which Yushchenko poses as a dictator-to-be. Mr. President, you’re failing your dictatorship exam.)

The situation deteriorated when Yanukovych broke his election promise and began leading Yushchenko around by the nose. In his new stratagem, he has banked on Piskun’s unwillingness to take on Justice Stanik and has stuck to his guns in the Constitutional Court.

With that in mind, we must help Yanukovych pocket his pranks. We must help Moroz get back on earth. We must send a clear message to those high-net-worth individuals from Donetsk: If this thing spins out of control, you will not leave the country.

We also must be on guard against false-flag terrorism. Let’s not spoil this sunny weekend of Kyiv anniversary celebrations.

Shape-Shifting & Sharp-Shooting
Tymo Sides with Sarko; Blasts Moro, Yanuk in Controversial Joke

Following a “flexitime” accord between Yushchenko and Yanukovych, Tymoshenko has produced two riveting soundbites that could well be considered as an opening to her campaign.

In the first one, whether impromptu or not, she expressed solidarity with Nicolas Sarkozy, obviously targeting a well educated audience familiar with the intricacies of the French presidential election. That audience, in light of her recent containment drive, may also include her can club in Washington.

Most likely, her passionate overture hasn’t registered with the wider Ukrainian audience. Brushing off any notion of girlpower, Tymo made a cautions attempt to reposition from left-of-center to right-of-center. Her case offers yet another testimony of the grotesque levels of ideological volatility present in Ukrainian politics. (I’m sure the unfavorable endorsement did little to impact Ségolène Royal's chances.)

Having come out of the closet, she indulged in a fable-like joke that mixed sex with politics. Ukrayinska Pravda has the details.

Білочка і зайчик покохали один одного і створили родину. І почали жити, кохати один одного, а діти не народжуються. І вони пішли до мудрої сови і питають: "Що нам робити? Ми білочка і зайчик створили родину, а діти не народжуються. Це чому? Тому що ми такі різні, ми білочка і зайчик?". А сова подивилася і каже: "Ні! Тому що ви обидва хлопчики.

То я хочу вам сказати, що поєднувати те, що не поєднується, неможливо. Ні шансу, ні природного шляху немає. І завжди закінчується відсутністю дітей, шановні друзі.

A squirrel and a rabbit fell in love and started a family. And so they started living together, loving each other, but alas, no kids. And so they came to the wise owl for advice, asking, “What shall we do? We, squirrel and rabbit, have started a family but no children are born to us. Why? Is it because we’re so different — we, squirrel and rabbit?” The owl looked and said, “No, it’s because you’re boys.”

So I want to tell you that joining together what can’t be joined is impossible. There’s no chance, nor is there any natural way. And it always ends in an absence of kids, dear friends.

The joke provoked a roar of laughter from the reporters who attended her press conference. By American standards, of course, this kind of anthropomorphism would be termed as politically incorrect or outright homophobic.

In response to a question regarding the creation of a single opposition bloc, she quipped, “Things are not so bad since we have at least one girl here.” Sounds just as funny, doesn’t it? (If we take into account her opposition to the single bloc idea, and, even more so, if get to the bottom of that biopolitical — and self-deprecating — allegory she used.)

Moroz Indahouse, Unready to Let Go
Ukraine’s Ghost Parliament Vows to End Party Shopping as Constitutional Court Prepares to Rule on Issue

In a bid to put the pressure on the President, the disbanded Verkhovna Rada, which refuses to comply and still meets in session presided by Speaker Oleksander Moroz, has made a concession.

On Friday, the Coalition of National ImpUnity adopted a rule that could have saved its ass during last-ditch negotiations with Yushchenko. It should be noted that, according to polls, Moroz and his Socialist Party (SPU) stand little chance of re-election. The prospect of early retirement keeps him in high gear, fighting till the bitter end.

But now it appears to be too late. The train has left the station. For Yushchenko to change his mind would be akin to political suicide. He would effectively derail and disembowel whatever is left of his credentials. This condition would in turn invite the Coalition to reverse its decision at its convenience some time later. Mr. President, if you want to buy a ticket to your political funeral, go ahead. The vultures are waiting.

The Counter-Maidan has experienced incremental growth, but still falls far behind Maidan 2004/05 numbers. Neither the show they have staged there nor the showdown itself offers a perfect historical parallel. People come to Kyiv for both ideological and financial reasons, the latter arguably being more prevalent. It’s no secret that the Regionalists have to use hired labor to compensate for the deficit of true-Blue supporters.

In a country with a per capita GDP of about 8K (PPP), participating in political tourism, on a daily allowance of ten bucks, can be a good way to spend one’s spring break and to chase one’s small-town blues away. But it can hardly put the spark back into the lives of those students who, upon graduation, will not find a job that corresponds to their education.

The good thing is, Kyiv is a place where urban legends meet reality. After spending a few days here, many Donetskites discover, much to their surprise, that no one gives them a dirty look when they speak Russian. During the Orange Revolution, the media in eastern Ukraine painted Kyiv as a hornet’s nest of nationalism where Russian speakers risked having their throats slit.

In the largely Orange Kyiv, public sentiment toward the Blue brothers vacillates between indifference and curiosity. Angry outbursts have not been reported.

There remains a high degree of uncertainty as to what the Constitutional Court has in store. Even more so, there seems to be no win-win solution in what the Coalition has to offer.

Kid Pro Quo: Yatsenyuk to Helm Foreign Affairs

Surprise! Deputy Chief of the Secretariat Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 32, got a new job too.

Being a compromise candidate, he garnered a whopping 426 votes in the Rada on Wednesday. Analytically speaking, he’s reaping the dividends of his highly diversified portfolio of connections.

Other than that, he’s talented and energetic. Finally, the Yanukovych Cabinet has a guy who speaks a little English. (Ouch! Numb with shock, career diplomats like Tarasyuk could barely conceal their disdain.)

Anatoliy Kinakh has replaced Volodymyr Makukha as Minister of Economy. Speaker Moroz, posing as an expert on parliamentary democracy, has stated that the interests of the USPP should be represented in the government. Obviously, the alchemy of separating business from government must be entering some strange, shape-shifting phase.

Too bad Ukraine ranks a dismal 125th out of the 161 countries surveyed in the 2006 Index of Economic Freedom.

All of which suggests that cradle is not the only thing getting robbed in this country.

Eavesdropping Leak Features Moroz Debriefed by British Envoy

In a rare move, Moroz has already confirmed the authenticity of the conversation. According to popular opposition blog Obkom.net.ua, which offers a log of the conversation, the audio files were obtained from three recently stolen workstations that belonged to an SBU SIGINT unit. The blog claims that stored on the missing hard drives was a compilation of phone intercepts capturing the entire Ukrainian establishment.

Following the release of some of these sensitive records on the internet, the SBU denied role, firing a high-ranking operative who refused to sign off on the disclaimer.

In the intriguing James Bond-style dialogue, Moroz waxes eloquent on the mechanics of Orange Coalition building.

Even though Ukraine does have a replica of the Fourth Amendment in its Constitution, it has been rarely enforced. Eavesdropping — by whoever can afford the technical capability — has been normal practice in this country. Undoubtedly, the SBU enjoys a strong competitive advantage in this lucrative business. We are a wiretapped nation, aren't we?

Judging by the sheer cooperativeness of soon-to-be Speaker Moroz, one could get the impression that Moroz moonlighted in Her Majesty’s service. Still, it probably wasn’t too long before Mother Moscow seduced him with a higher price for his services.

Holodomor Was Genocide, Rada Rules
Moroz Goes Maverick on Anticrisis Coalition

Three generations afterward, it finally happened. We saw light at the end of the tunnel, a tunnel of historical injustice spanning some 64 years. The events whose human toll could be compared to the effect of a nuclear bomb exploded over Los Angeles have found their way into Ukrainian law.

Late Tuesday, November 28, 2006, the Ukrainian parliament, a mirror reflection of centuries of Russian rule and of more than a decade of chaotic capitalism, gathered enough votes to pass a bill that recognizes the Holodomor as “genocide against the Ukrainian people.” (The Baltic countries had recognized it as such awhile ago.)

Secure, or rather insecure in the knowledge that Moroz and Co. would play a maverick on this one, the Rada Communists raised hell. They who trace themselves as direct descendants of the CPSU put on the same old charade. They bewailed Ukraine’s post-communist demographic drain, calling it the “real McCoy” in need of recognition, as if crimes against the economy committed under K&K (Kravchuk and Kuchma) somehow exonerate them from moral responsibility for crimes against humanity. (Has it ever occurred to them that by applying NKVD interrogation techniques to their capitalist coalition partners, most notably the PRU, they might yield some helpful answers as to the cause of Ukraine’s population decline?)

Yushchenko’s embattled bill, which had initially prescribed fines for Holodomor denial, underwent transplant surgery, as a series of politically correct adjustments reshaped it into a compromise bill. The centerpiece of all this makeover was the replacement of the “Ukrainian nation” in the Yushchenko version with the “Ukrainian people” in the compromise version

Don’t the “Ukrainian nation” and the “Ukrainian people” mean the same thing? Not according to the PRU, on guard as it is against nationalism (except Russian). From the PRU’s viewpoint, the term “Ukrainian nation” singles out the Ukrainians as an ethnic group.

This horrible "misnomer" certainly raised a red flag (read: Red) in the PRU psyche, activating a diehard communist mantra that the word “nation” equals Ukrainian bourgeois nationalism equals nazism.

For the Socialists, who joined the pro-recognition movement contingently, the term “people” it was a safety valve that helped them avoid large-scale confrontation with the Regionalists. For BYuTies and NSNUzers it was an “open Sesame” incantation that magically got the job done. Of course, the tradeoff somewhat downplays the genocide’s ethnic profile, but few would disagree that, for the time being, it was a compromise worth making. After all, until Russian lobbyism levels reach a lower point, the Ukrainian people can read into the “Ukrainian people” whatever definition they prefer.

As for communist drones, it was the sound of water flushing the toilet. Their presence in the Verkhovna Rada has been dwindling with every new election, thanks to the public’s growing awareness of their political promiscuity. The communists have been notorious for cheating their voters left and right. In light of the CPU’s track record, millions of Russified Ukrainians have given up on it, finding direct experience with the PRU more enjoyable.

The communists’ “secret” affair with oligarchs as well as the mothballed suitcase of idyllicized Soviet past they keep under the bed puts them light years away from the European-style welfare state.

The bill was passed by a small margin, with the golden vote exercised by the Socialists. To what degree Speaker Moroz’s personal experience, as opposed to his political experience, affected the decision would be a good question.

In numerous interviews, Moroz recounted how his native village of Tarashcha, Kyiv Oblast was hit by the Holodomor. Hard-hit are Moroz’s approval ratings, as the Ukrainian people surely remember what he did last summer. If elections were held today, the Socialists would be up to their necks in horse dung. This harsh reality leaves them no choice but to do whatever they can to give the Grain Belt the impression they’re still the guys. (If tobacco companies can fool the public by sponsoring cancer research and donating money to children’s hospitals, who says we can’t do a little Zorro act ourselves?)

President Yushchenko, who took the liberty of suggesting fines for Holodomor deniers, still hopes his legislative initiative will be incorporated. In its present form, the law characterizes Holodomor denial as an act of desecration, yet sets no penalties for offenders.

Aside from BYuT, NSNU, and the SPU, all of which supported the bill unanimously, two brave souls from the PRU did. Presumably, these were Hanna Herman and Taras Chornovil — reverse renegades, as one may call them.

In China, a country where communism had cut a deadly swath and would have made it into another North Korea, rather than the world’s fourth economy it is today — had it not been for Den Xiaoping’s infusion of smart capitalism — they say, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.”

MIB Unsettled by NSC Agenda

Talk about crisis management. It’s amazing how insecure the Anticrisis Coalition, aka the “Men in Blue,” can be when it comes to national security.

The recent NSC meeting offers plenty of insight.

Discussing the mess in the housing and utilities sector was one thing the “Men in Blue,” Yanukovych and Moroz, found too hard for their palate.

Instead of sharing their expertise on an issue that affects the daily lives of an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians living from paycheck to paycheck, Yanukovych and Moroz lodged a note of protest. According to one account, they even walked out of the meeting.

Similar to cats who mark their territory, they glaringly informed the audience that the handling of this issue is the sole prerogative of the Cabinet and demanded that it be from the agenda

Since blue is the official color of the PRU, what made them feel so blue psychologically? What pissed them off?

Why would Yanukovych, the champion of BLT (“Better Living Today”), be so possessive about the lines of authority and yet so inexpressive about his betterment endeavors?

Why would Moroz, the devout Socialist who co-starred in the summer blockbuster “How Goodfellas Got Their Groove Back,” make such a big fuss about talking social security?

Undoubtedly, it's the affiliation of the newly appointed NSC head Vitaliy Haiduk that adds intrigue to the affair. Known as a pragmatic nationalist and, what’s important, as ISD’s man, Haiduk poses a counterweight to archrival SCM, which smells of a turf war of sorts.

However, back to the bread and butter business, in Kyiv alone utility bills have climbed more than threefold, pending finalization by the Justice Ministry. (Attention fans of Mayor Chernovetsky, aka the “King of Handouts!” It’s payback time.)

Of course, Russia smiles on us all, but not all of us can smile back Unlike the oligarchs, who will certainly pull through, having billions of dollars stashed in offshore accounts, and unlike the burgeoning middle class, whose living standards will not suffer much, the urban intelligentsia and working class may fare differently.

What happens if half the country stops paying bills it simply can’t afford? That’s what the “Men in Blue, or better yet “Children of the Coal,” should think about, instead of throwing bureaucratic tantrums.

Just what did they expect national security to be about — poker, or perhaps Monopoly?

What’s in It for Ukraine?

The U.S. midterm elections have returned results that President Yushchenko can relate to. In this spiritual exercise, he should ask himself a couple of questions.

Question 1: Does Yushchenko still believe that being opposed by Parliament, by its own nature, contradicts the founding the principles of government?

As a Reagan White House intern, First Lady Kateryna Yushchenko probably never kept her husband in the dark about this not being true. That dealing with hostile legislatures is normal practice for Western leaders demands no further explanation. Needless to say, the piece of evidence America has just provided us with casts the local “lyubi druzi” school of thought in a less intellectually appealing light. It was those oppositionphobic gentlemen who posed as maids of honor to Yushchenko, their lucky star, whose marriage by arrangement to Yanukovych would have multiplied their fortunes.

Question 2: Does Yushchenko expect Bush to nurse his own Universal of National Unity?

When Yushchenko — obsessed with justifying his tango with “bandits” and “vote riggers,” as he once had gently termed them — came up with that political prenup of his, the only person he fooled was himself. And that summer coalition fling cost him dearly, by putting him in cahoots with individuals his voters had revolted against in the thing called the Orange Revolution. As the NSNU Convention reopens this Saturday, the patient is a bureaucratic mammoth debilitated with the special interest contagion, severely disconnected from its grassroots support group, stuck in single-digit territory. NSNU is a four-letter word, period.

No sooner had the Democrats uncorked their champagne than Moscow pocketed its pride and rushed to sign a bilateral protocol with the U.S., on concern that, with Dems taking both the House and the Senate, it may be grounded in the WTO limbo for a long time.

That explains why Moroz has been working against the clock on WTO-related legislation while steering clear of the NATO issue. The accounting formula behind the $130 price tag seems to be written on the walls: “NATO, for this you’ve paid us; WTO, for that you haven’t.”

The D-Day hardly spells a Moscow-centric U-turn on the Hill with regard to Ukraine. In fact, friends of Ukraine can even be found among the surviving Republicans like Richard Lugar, John McCain, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
What it does spell is bad times for the bad guys.

By the way, there’s a ruling party in Ukraine that, behaviorally, has established itself as a much uglier version of everything that’s wrong with the GOP. For reasons outlined above, that party should watch itself very carefully. Otherwise, its day of reckoning, too, will come.

WTOverdrive: Why the Sudden Speedup?

Since Moroz got infected with the WTO virus, the Rada has chain-passed a whopping seven WTO-related bills, albeit in the first reading. That narrows the prerequisite down to fourteen.

What accounts for the unexpected resurgence in the passage of WTO legislation? Analysts attribute the cabin fever to an eagerness to realize first-mover advantages. When push comes to shove, the anticrisis coalition's love for the Russian ruble probably outranks its love for Russia itself.

Why not jam Russia’s fingers in the doorway for a handsome profit? Some sources indicate that once Ukraine plants the flag, the temptation to press Russia for opening its pipe and oil field exploration markets would be impossible to overcome.

The WTO resurrection in the Ukrainian Parliament, if sustained, raises the possibility that the geopolitical bribe buried into the $130 price tag may cover non-membership in NATO, but not in the WTO.

For crying out loud, will somebody grab the phone and call the FSB hotline? The capitalist fatherland is in danger!

Format C:oalition
Operation Reg Roulette, or How the Socialists Scammed the Selfish

Just when the would-be government and opposition seemed to have reached a win-win solution, lifting the rostrum blockade and averting mass starvation, something else kicked in. Having co-opted Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz as the Trojan Horse, the Regionalists mounted a surprise counteroffensive that redrew the battlefield to their advantage. These strange bedfellows overran the fledgling ego-sandbagged Orange coalition in a brilliant backstage maneuver (read: backstab), a feat that qualifies Mr. Moroz for Con Artist of the Year.

Ecstatic about the course of events in Kyiv was Viktor Medvedchuk, a well-known friend of Russia and the man whose media management skills had worked wonders when he served as Kuchma’s Chief of Staff. From the golden resorts of Monte Carlo, Mr. Medvedchuk blew kisses to his home, sweet home. Needless to say, the Russian Duma, jumped for joy. Russian MPs hailed the freshly-minted Ukrainian Speaker Moroz and “eulogized” the demise of the Orange Revolution. Bursting with candor, Russian Vice Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the son of a Ukrainian-born Jew, carried the point further. He used the occasion to unshelf his blueprint for better bilateral relations, which, far from being innovative, prescribes partitioning Ukraine into East and West.

Nothing better defines the geopolitical slant of the Socialist scam in Ukraine than this instant rash of endorsements from Russia and friends. Bravo, Mr. Putin! On the eve of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, the freedom-loving people of Ukraine are sending you a hilarious shipment of joke fodder with which to regale your powerful guests. Less than two years after you prematurely congratulated him, your man regains his potency. What could be more debilitating to critics of Russia’s foreign policy than news of Ukraine reorienting itself on its own volition?

Ukraine’s Burning Questions
It’s the butt of Puttie’s jokes who populate the questions Ukraine’s struggling with. Now that Operation Reg Roulette has sunk the Orange Fleet to the bottom of political food chains, the castaways have a lot of homework to do.

1. Will the austerities they face help BYuT and NSNU rekindle togetherness and regroup into opposition?

2. Or will NSNU, a longtime PRU seductee, leave BYuT stranded and join the club (read: couch), in a departure from their caucus’s preliminary decision to seek repeat elections?

3. What position would NSNU enjoy in this arrangement?

4. Will Yanukovych become PM?

5. If BYuT and NSNU stick together, to what extent will PRU headhunters succeed at Balkanizing them, apart from the several “free radicals” whose voting patterns already smack of defection?

6. Will the powers that be (read: pirates) preserve all the privileges granted to the opposition?

7. What are the pros and cons of disbanding Parliament and are there enough grounds?

Tymo out of a Limo
Obviously, no one feels more upset in the new world order than Tymoshenko. The Joan of Arc of Ukrainian politics still has to recover from the shock of having to kiss good-bye to the prized PM position. There she is — all dressed up and nowhere to go, back to square one. If NSNU, driven by its financial faction, dives into the PRU-SPU-CPU loveshack, she will find herself booked in the Orange Orphanage. Now hear this! In his recent interview, Kuchma, the poltergeist of Ukrainian politics, gave his hearty welcome to this ménage a quatre concept.

Anyway, when the chips are down, such a scenario will only remind her of the fighter that she is. Let there be no doubt: The lady who flies like a butterfly and stings like a bee will make the best of it. Sooner or later, through her endless energy, and with the influx of frustrated NSNU electorate, she’ll break the walls and she’ll take no hostages. This one goes to you, President Yushchenko.

One way to look at her present station is to isolate her own political genes that had contributed to it.

She built her parliamentary campaign around contrasting her virtues with the vices of NSNU tycoons. So restless was her quest for premiership that it lured her into a “one vote stand” with the PRU on a gas-related vote of no confidence to the Yekhanurov Cabinet. At that point, it appeared that her loyalty to the Orange Revolution was gone with the gas.

Right from the start, she knew that the vote would have no legal effect, as the law required that the Cabinet carry on until May. She desired differentiation — a dose of publicity that would favorably set her apart from the shadow of the dominant NSNU brand. That’s where she got carried away. The ‘traitor’ effect she achieved mired her so badly that she took pains to re-Orangize herself. Despite the relative success her after-action whitewashing had with voters, the move had become just another poisoned arrow that exacerbated her ailing relations with NSNU.

Once again, the bad blood between the Orange guys, at work since the Tymoshenko Cabinet’s dismissal, codified the rules of engagement: It’s OK to dump each other. Instead of resolving their differences and reaching out for each other, the Orange Revolutionaries held each other at gunpoint, shredding that very special something they shared.

Bonnie (Tymo) and Clyde (Moro)
In the Speaker tryouts, Tymoshenko stood firmly behind Moroz, and both did their best to keep Poroshenko at bay. Both sought to relive the glory of their past — Moroz as Speaker, Tymoshenko as Premier — all of which made them a tightly knit support group bent on securing those cherished second-coming experiences. But their folie a duex similarity ends right there — once the numbers take center stage. While Tymo garnered a juicy 22.29 percent of the vote, Moro netted a meager 5.69 percent. Statistically speaking, the Socialists hungered for Speakership with a tenacity unmatched by their electoral market share.

As the coalition talks neared breakdown, Moroz, knowing that the ball was in his court, seemed to have changed his ways. tradeoffs, he inked a coalition compact with BYuT and NSNU that irrevocably entitled NSNU to the Speaker’s position and thereby lay to rest his overly ambitious claims.

Contrary to the impression he had created, no sooner had the ink dried than Moroz began openly expressing his voir dire reservations about Poroshenko and demanded his replacement. Rumors of PRU-SPU flirtations regarding the vote on Speaker leaked to the press. In response to this dangerous undercurrent, Poroshenko, the scandal scarred NSNU candidate who claims being the victim of a smear campaign, pressed the Socialists’ to honor commitments spelled out in the compact. Even Tymo, who may have silently reveled in the thought of Poro’s replacement, refused to get embroiled.

The Countdown Begins
At the opening of the Rada’s morning session on Thursday, July 6, a day that will live in infamy, Tymo exuded confidence and excitement. The femme fatale unveiled a 50-50 plan that lavished on the opposition as many as 15 committees, or half of the total number. These pockets of power covered banking and finances, corporate governance and privatization, corruption and organized crime prevention. In addition to that crème de la crème mix, the consolation package included chairmanship of the Oversight Chamber, with its enlarged capabilities, and, of course, the almighty secret ballot. And, finally, to promote goodwill and cross-partisan cooperation, Tymo proposed to swap Committee Vice Chairmanships.

She should have saved those outpourings of generosity for her grand kids. When Yanuke ordered a pullout from the rostrum, he had a completely different agenda in mind.

Launch!
After lunch break, the smell of betrayal, so pervasive in the corridors of the Verkhovna Rada, reached alarming intensity. Yosyp Vinsky, head of the SPU politburo, blew the whistle. He went public with what he said were behind-the-scenes preparations for voting into power a mutually agreed PRU-SPU Speaker. As the media munched on Vinsky’s revelations, Moroz remained tongue seated in the session room, his face an expression of cold-blooded calculus. He and his partners set in motion a chain reaction of reactionism that proved once again that causal encounters in politics happen far more often than Socialism with a human face.

The visible part came to light when a Socialist MP made a motion to nominate Oleksander Moroz for Speaker, the other nominee being Mykola Azarov of the PRU. Now fully away that this was not a drill, Petro Poroshenko assumed a battle position on the rostrum.

In an emotionally charged speech Poroshenko announced the withdrawal of his candidacy and called on Moroz to do the same. Let the Regionalists test their voting firepower with Azarov, Poroshenko thundered. Once they learned their limitations, his logic went, parties to the Orange coalition could safely retreat to the negotiation table and settle the Speaker dispute on their own. Moroz rejected this reconciliation bid, saying that the full support of his fellow Socialists gave him no reason to give up on himself. The smokescreen statement he issued hinted at two possible courses of action:

1. “Different strokes for different folks.” Socialists vote for Moroz, Regionalists vote Azarov. Both get their egos stroked, but yield nothing.

2. “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.” Socialists vote for Moroz, and so do Regionalists. Moroz becomes Speaker, Yanukovych Premier.

Nobody wanted to believe it, but the latter transaction seemed the most practical — the most likely shape of things to come. Before the vote was even passed, PRU messenger Taras Chornovil, speaking in parables, had proudly fed the breaking news to the media.

Bottom line: Moroz won unanimous consent and a standing ovation from the Regionalists. Secret ballot? Forget it. Call it electoral exhibitionism with an obsessive-compulsive component. Under the voyeur’s gaze of Big Brother-style party bosses, SPU-PRU frères d'armes cast their ballots, often showing them in full view of the cameras.

In this “Unite Ukraine” spectacle, as PRU strategists have branded it, the credits are as follows:

1. Azarov acted as a decoy. His nomination, highly praised by the Regionalists, duped the Orange guys into believing he was the real thing, which prevented them from attempting interception early in the attack.

2. Moroz starred as a stooge. His “paid” AWOL, as rumor has it, caught the rest of the team off guard. He offered his services for a good political price, and both seller and buyer got what they wanted.

Excerpts from Moroz’s File
The “Purple Heart” for distinguished service to the PRU now decorating Moroz’s chest hardly signals a new trend in his behavior. Those who have been following Moroz in telescopic detail have more to tell. Below are some memorable moments from his political star trek.

1999 As the presidential campaign gains momentum, Oleksander Moroz drops out of the supposedly anti-Kuchma alliance called the Kanev Four, after the alliance nominates former intelligence chief and PM Yevhen Marchuk for President. Marchuk, a centrist figure, went on to #5 in the first round and readily marched for Kuchma in the run off election in exchange for the National Security Council job.

Although the Kanev Four may have been a trap, Moroz’s runaway profile was forever seared in the memory of Ukrainians. Well aware of his high potential, he just would not wrap his mind around someone else. So, he opts for a lone ranger act — only to have his mission ruined by Petro Symonenko of the CPU, his present coalition partner.

Bottom line: Moroz made #3, Symonenko #2, and Kuchma #1. Both helped Kuchma’s reelection by playing into his hands alongside the 1996 Yeltsin-Zyuganov scheme.

The major egomaniac episode described above laid down a marker for further attention-seeking adventure.

2000-2001 Moroz steals the spotlight with clandestine recordings of Kuchma and his inner circle allegedly made by Mykola Melnychenko, a right-minded officer on Kuchma’s security detail. From what can be deciphered, Kuchma ‘sings’ of strongarm action against distinguished opposition journalist Heorhiy Gongadze missing since September. Gongadze confronted Kuchma on talk shows and slammed him with editorials. The sudden stream of low-fi recordings in Moroz’s possession, heavily punctuated with Kuchma’s foul language, shakes society to its core. Shortly afterwards, the beheaded body of the missing journalist is discovered in the forest near Tarashcha, Moroz’s home village. Amid street protests that continued into 2001, Kuchma denies role, saying the recordings are fabricated, and increasingly secludes himself in the Crimea, where he dates Putin.

2002 What sounds like a dialogue on the sale of the Ukrainian-made Kolchuha radar system to Saddam Hussein marks a new spike in the Kuchmagate. Following the release of this recording, Washington examines it and finds the material to be authentic. Street protests rock the Ukrainian capital with renewed vigor. With the blink of an eye, Leonid Kuchma gets grounded diplomatically by an America whose heart still bleeds for the victims of 9/11 and whose public opinion and leaders link Saddam Hussein to Osama bin Laden.

Kuchma desperately tries to disassociate himself from his pariah status — but only at his own peril. At the NATO summit in Prague in 2002, he received a lesson he’ll never forget. Despite the clear indication that his presence at the event would be unwelcome, Kuchma decides to gatecrash. To prevent the UK and US delegations from the discomfort of sharing space with the Ukrainian delegation, the protocol officers embarked on a creative approach. They switched the seating chart from English to French. Under this “French Kiss” arrangement, Ukraine remained unchanged, while the UK metamorphosed into Royaume Unis and the US into États-Unis. What a view! Kuchma suffered in silence, sealed from Blair and Bush by a linguistic cordon sanitaire.

Ironically, neither WMDs nor Kolchuhas turned up in Iraq.

Bottom line: Mystery surrounds this geopolitical X-File and Moroz’s role in it. At best, it was that of a DJ who spun the LP collection to his own benefit. At worst, it was that of an agent of influence who utilized Ukrainians as guinea pigs for the benefit of a foreign country. In fact, many experts have thoroughly debunked the underlying events as a Kremlin plot to weaken Kuchma and draw him closer. Anyway, the Kuchmagate affair cost the life of journalist, brought misery to his family, and boiled into a national drama.

2002-2003 Moroz partners with Medvedchuk on the so-called politreforma, a Constitutional amendment that would transfer the bulk of the power from the President to the PM and Parliament. Both look to it for a coping strategy in the face of the upcoming presidential election.
Undoubtedly, Medvedchuk sought to prolong the Kuchma regime by reemploying his patron as PM and installing a bicameral Pavlovian legislative. Although the bicameral concept did not withstand the opposition’s pressure, the politreforma lived on.

Moroz argued that the politreforma would facilitate Kuchma’s retirement and would provide the best safeguard against tyranny no matter who won the presidential race.

2004 After Yushchenko carries the first round of the election by a thin margin, Moroz conditions his endorsement in the run-off election on the candidate’s full commitment to the politreforma. As Ukraine verged on civil war, Yushchenko had to reaffirm this commitment to keep the hotheads in the Kuchma regime from cracking down on the Orange Revolution.

Moroz has come a long way. Throughout his career, he has established himself as a glib guy who knows what he wants and may be willing to get his goals accomplished at all costs.

Moroz and Morality: Points of Intersection
When asked whether he had any feelings of guilt to share about the recent events, Moroz skillfully surfed on the public’s dismay over the vicissitudes of Orange coalition-building. Trying to deflect torrents of criticism raining on his parade, he argued that tears his ex-partners shed were crocodile tears. According to Moroz, when the PRU and NSNU had almost clinched the deal, Tymo disrupted its consummation in the nick of time and resuscitated talks on the Orange coalition. But NSNU ballerinas, fixated on mating with bigtime PRU machos, just couldn’t stand her. So, he continued, they embarked on a strategy of sabotage aimed at derailing Tymo from the PM track. Had she taken the reigns of the Cabinet, they would have had quite a motive to contribute to her speedy failure. The fallout from her “leadership failure” would have paved the way for a PRU-NSNU coalition and would have cast BYuT and the SPU overboard.

On the one hand, Moroz’s woebegone story has its merits. The halo effect has long vacated the top brass of the Orange Revolution, especially during the last couple of months. One has little moral standing if one’s claims of injustice can be offset with attempts to push one’s neighbor off the cliff. With that in mind, what’s wrong about breaking off a negotiation if one no longer finds his partners trustworthy? What’s wrong about selling to the highest bidder? Nothing. Unless, on the other hand, you agreed to provide advance notice of your decision and unless you sell what’s not yours to sell. The farmers and smalltown intelligentsia in Central Ukraine, who entrusted Mr. Moroz with their votes have been done a disservice. Had they (his electoral base) known that Moroz would sell them down the river, most of them would have run him out of town in the first place.

Having volunteered himself as the surrogate mother to the predominantly capitalist coalition, Moroz drew catcalls from European Socialists like Jan Marinus Wiersma, Socialist Group Vice-President in charge of EU enlargement issues. It is against this background that Mr. Moroz takes his chances with domestic audiences. He waxes eloquent in an effort to sell the Ukrainian people on the idea of himself as a solution seller/icebreaker, a nice guy who did a job for which he will receive credit only with the passage of time.

However, recent polls and call-in shows, as well as the screenfuls of hate mail he gets on forums, suggest that many people, his voters included, think otherwise. In their eyes, Moroz threw himself into the soul seller/promise breaker category.

To wield something of a scandal silencer and to project positive emphasis, PRU-SPU-CPU strategists have couched the coalition in missionary overtones. They christened their brainchild the “anti-crisis coalition.” For many unsuspecting Ukrainians, that brand name still defies logic: The economy has expanded at the annual rate of 5 percent, and incomes have risen 20 percent. Based on these field reports, it is safe to conclude that the RegiSociCommunists are in the business of creating crises where there are none. Put another way, they have applied for a “Ghostbuster” role in the theater of public opinion.

Several script discrepancies that have emerged in the postnatal period of “anticrisis coalition” building may dash cold water on the integrity of its parents. Whereas Moroz has described his decision in spur-of-the-moment terms, his colleagues have supplied a different picture. The dark side of Moroz has repeatedly confessed that it was the result of premeditated activity.

Of course, the dog-eat-dog atmosphere of the negotiations in no small part had shaped Moroz’s AWOL. But the final choice was his to make, and his disappearing act in the Bermuda triangle of the Orange Revolution may become the lethal flashback that will send the Socialists into oblivion in the next election. He may pull his hair out in the name of “uniting Ukraine,” trying to camouflage his greed, but that sort of ritual will hardly divert his parish from trying to divine where morality ends and Socialism begins.


Trading the Lost Marbles of the Revolution for the Hot Coals of Cohabitation
President Yushchenko has his own share of hair-pulling to do. He and his henchmen spent months unable to come to grips with losing to BYuT.

The agonizing downhill slide Yushchenko’s ratings had taken kept him flip-flopping from Orange to Blue and back. Instead of feeding the nation with Saturday night pop corn addresses, he should have assumed a hands-on moderator role. He should have rolled up his sleeves and put the Orange coalition to work. Politically, nobody was home upstairs.

Downstairs Ukraine witnessed Tom & Jerry-style turf wars, beggar-thy-neighbor negotiations, on-again, off-again subscription to the proportionality principle in dividing Cabinet seats. The Orange guys could well contribute their learn-the-hard-way findings to a case study titled “The Dos and Donts of Team Play.”

As they juggled their overblown egos, little did they know what was coming to them. Not for a moment did the Blue guys waving their laundry list of complaints stop scheming their way into power.

Ukraine gave the Orange guys another chance, and all they did was make their leadership the laughingstock of nations. First, they disgraced themselves with a prolonged power struggle over Cabinet seats, quite an ugly sight to see. Second, they fell victim to backstabbing, which, too, ate into the stock value of the Orange Revolution.

And now BYuT lionhearts are rallying for repeat elections, and NSNU lizards are scanning the “anticrisis” pyramid for niches. Tymo should entertain no illusions about her repeat elections initiative. She should be fully aware that the sword swallowing act she has announced, even if enforceable, may be lost on a society caught in the midst of the vacation season. Over the last months, the Orange audience has grown weary of watching its heroes’ silly games in a show called “How to Lose a Government in 10 Ways.” Whether she denies it or not, the pendulum of public opinion has slightly swung in favor of the Blue guys. In light of this extreme exhaustion, should a rerun be made anytime soon, it may be overtax the Orange audience’s interest in democracy as a full time job and adversely affect turnout.

Starting July 25, Yushchenko has the authority to disband Parliament if the Cabinet continues vacant. However, due to waning support for his party, he will most likely choose not to exercise that option. Repeat elections will result in greater failure for NSNU, or so the mainstream argument goes.

That’s why oppositionphobic attacks have overwhelmed NSNU to the point of nonsense. The plausible excuse behind NSNU’s cohabitation with the PRU is that it’s impossible to have a President who’s opposed by Parliament and the Cabinet. Maybe Yushchenko should seek counseling from Clinton, who dealt with a Republican Congress in 1994-95, or from Chirac, who endured Socialist PM Jospin in 1997-2002.

Certainly, Yanuke craves a more solid footing for his throne, which would stem from having NSNU on board. At the same time, Operation Reg Roulette has severely reduced NSNU’s bargaining power. While in the preop phase the formula “Yanukovych Speaker, Yekhanurov PM” supplied the common ground for negotiation, in the postop phase the PRU will yield no ground, except for maybe asking the CPU to leave. Yet, however desirable NSNU’s presence may be, it is hardly critical. This means that NSNU’s position no longer counts all that much. The tables have turned: Beggars can’t be choosers, and Yanukovych is nonnegotiable. One of the carrots planted to induce NSNU to agree propounds that the “anticrisis” coalition can be rebranded as the “coalition of national unity.”

Yushy and Tymo have little room for conventional maneuver and thus have applied the good cop/bad cop tactics themselves. In a manner consistent with their situations and capabilities — and probably in the hope of extracting some seats on first-class committees — both have issued disbandment threats.

The Regs, in turn, gave Yushchenko until early August to finalize the Yanukovych nomination. In case their chief does not get pampered, the Regs have promised to respond in kind, unleashing the wrath of Donbas on the corrupt city of Kyiv and impeaching President Yushchenko. On closer observation, the moral stature of their crusade bogs down in the mechanics of impeachment. Mustering the 300 votes required to overcome the presidential veto cannot be done without exporting talent from NSNU and BYuT. Experts believe that this procedure would involve financial stimulation. In fact, there’s a body language video suggesting that the cash-on-the barrel approach to voting may not be science fiction, after all.

Anyway, escalation continues. As of Wednesday, July 26, Yushchenko remains in his meditation pagoda, praying for divine intervention. Yanukovych is spitting peace-and-harmony sound bites on the public while breathing fire on the President, awaiting nomination for PM. His magi have stalked Yushchenko, and Speaker Moroz has courteously called the President on the carpet.
Time is running out on the President. Unless he decides to use the weapon of last resort, he cannot stonewall the PM nomination indefinitely. Besides, he needs the Rada’s cooperation in appointing Justices to the Constitutional Court’s, whose opinion he is determined to seek in order to play down the politreforma.

In the western Ukrainian city of Rivne, two maverick Socialists, including the brother of Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, burned their member cards in protest to Moroz’s adventurism. Minister Lutsenko himself has revoked membership in the Socialist Party.

Communist leader Petro Symonenko flew to Moscow for a hush-hush tryst with Putin.

Yanukovych supporters broke camp near the Rada. Regionalist MP Oleh Kalashnikov, tasked with coordinating camp activities, lashed out at reporters filming a rally and seized the video. Slapped with a scandal at a time when its image should have radiated immaculacy, the PRU had Mr. Kalashnikov apologize. Somehow, the apology Mr. Kalashnikov squeezed out of himself sounded like a mock one. Instead of confessing to having a short fuse and a poor grasp of democracy, he actually blamed the journalists for dong their job in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

The flavor of his reconciliation statement only made the scandal spiral upwards. Finally, Yanukovych went out of his way to expel the berserker from the PRU roster. Relax, deontologists. He did this for more than purity’s sake. He did this for the purpose of publicizing his dazzling “love affair” with the freedom of press. How else could a fine liberal like him ward off skepticism from all those pervs who dare deem otherwise?

And who says that clemency should elude a strong leader’s character? No way! So, the expulsion was a mock one too: There’s hardly a law on the books that says Kalashnikov should be out of his job as a result of expulsion from the PRU.

Paradoxically, the new-fashioned coalition has lumped together Ukraine’s richest man and the champions of the proletariat. Observers are wondering how exactly Yanukovych Socialists and Communists are going to square the slashing of taxes with the promise of a robust welfare state. Those poor folks who voted for a bright future under the never-setting sun of Marxism-Leninism should take a hike. Except for ultraviolet exposure — that’s what you get when you mix blue and red — they won’t even find trace amounts of that future.

Attention fun lovers! The soon-to-be-released “Banana Republic” by Nouveaux Riches feat. Commie Oldies (remix) can best be enjoyed with vodka and pot.

In Memory of the Orange Revolution
Maidan, now occupied by BYuT and Pora tents, is but a shadow of its former self. In the cold winter of 2004 people flocked to it with their hearts warm. In the hot summer of 2006, many of those same people pass it by with their cold hearts. It takes time to put one’s expectations out of the refrigerator again.

Repeat elections can be a risky business. But this is not the worst course of action for the President to take, provided (1) enough time has elapsed for people to recharge their batteries and (2) BYuT and NSNU become one. Anyway, as long as Yushchenko keeps all options open, spoilers will be hard to come by.

More likely than not, by allying himself with Yanukovych, Yushchenko will hit the last nail in his political coffin, rather than achieve a healthy cohabitation.

For Yushchenko and, to a lesser degree, for Tymoshenko, the Orange Revolution has evolved into an inconvenient term, almost a taboo. Not only do they refer to it with detachment but they also do this on a declining basis, similar to the Pavlovian procedure of extinguishment. One never speaks about revolution in the house of the hanged.

Life goes on. A country standing at the crossroads needs no narcoleptic leaders. Somebody has to dust off the Ukrainian Dream, and that somebody is you. Or, if you’re too tired, simply hold your breath.