LIMO or LIMI? Diet Orange or Bitter Blue?
With 4 percent of the vote still to be counted, dreams of a slim Orange coalition BYuT (30.81%) and NUNS (14.27%), may be shattered. The LIMO (Lytvyn in, Moroz out) flow assumption appears less than safe. Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched!
Under the LIMI (Lytvyn in, Moroz in) flow assumption, the balance of power may shift dramatically — and not in the Oranges’ favor.
The math makes Lytvyn a mercenary, and puts him in Moroz’s behavioral niche. Under a worst-case scenario, the SPU surpasses the 3 percent threshold, and joins forces with the PRU (34.19%), KPU (5.37%) and LyB (3.98%). Should this scenario prevail, it’s the Blues who will gain a razor-thin majority.
In a Rada where seats are in short supply, Volodymyr Lytvyn will sell his services to the highest bidder.
Who is Mr. Lytvyn? Kuchma’s chief of staff (1996-2000) involved in the Gongadze scandal; leader of the pro-Kuchma ZaYedu bloc in the 2002 parliamentary election; a PhD in history caught in the act of plagiarism; speaker of the Rada (2002-2006); and an also-ran in the 2006 parliamentary election.
This year, his third-party platform has propelled him back to the Rada, where he will seek to exercise his “golden share” leverage.