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Sunday, October 07, 2007

NUNS' Suicidal PoRnification: Rumor or Reality?

Are we seeing what we think we’re seeing? Are NUNS morphing into sluts — again? As the Party of Regions continues love bombing Nasha Ukraina-Narodna Samooborona, the threat of their sweet surrender in favor of a shyrka, or grand coalition, becomes real.

Shyrka, short for shyroka koalitsiya — and slang for intravenous drug use — is a popular witticism that aptly extrapolates the effects of such an arrangement on Ukraine. In diagnosing the shyrka motives on the Orange side, we’re dealing with a good intentions-bad intentions axis.

Good intentions, Wilsonian designs.
One way to interpret Yushchenko’s coalitioneering is to assume that he has again tasked himself with “mending Ukraine” and “making Donbas safe for democracy.” Consider this idealistic motif as the tip of the iceberg to a pragmatic dimension that underlies NUNS’ mediocre election score — and the Tymophobia that comes with it.

Will Orange voters buy into a Wilsonian shyrka? Not very likely. Should NUNS accept Yanukovych’s “stability and prosperity” proposition, they who put their trust in “one law for all” will experience high levels of cognitive dissonance. In their eyes, NUNS’ reliance on Yanukovych as the “white knight” will add up to a nymphomaniac bait-and-switch scheme.

They who voted for NUNS will make no peace with their electeds’ labor migration from church choir to Playboy party, no matter how lofty the rhetoric. Should NUNS swap “one law for all” for “one dough for all,” the next election will slap them with “one loathe for all.” Few voters will suffer gladly a bunch of promiscuous drones that sold them down the river, and then attempted to put a patriotic face on it.

If history is any guide, it teaches Yushchenko to avoid the trap of good intentions. In August 2006, Yushchenko tried to tame the tiger with the Universal of National Unity, only to end up being cornered by the Coalition of National Impunity, uh sorry, Unity.

Bad intentions, Machiavellian designs.
Some analysts paint uglier pictures. One school of thought has it that Yushchenko might be interested in a zero coalition. Failure to form a coalition may result in an interregnum in which lame duck Yanukovych continues as PM on a short tether.

Still, others hypothesize that Yushchenko’s ambition to play “lord of the Oranges” supplies him with a stake in the Orange coalition’s “creative destruction.” Once the fragile Orange coalition falls apart — a process catalyzed by the President himself — the more stable shyrka will make him feel more comfortable, so they argue.

The most demonic way to look at it is to visualize a president who has nothing to lose in terms of reelection chances and thus opts for an exit strategy. He tells his lyubi druzi to get into the groove, grab as much as they can, and run.

Both Wilsonian and Machiavellian roads lead to hell — at least to the hell of public opinion. Should NUNS and Yushchenko chose to follow in Moroz’s footsteps, they will place Tymoshenko the martyr on a springboard to presidency.

However, it is not in Ukraine’s best interests to have a BYuT monopoly in the Orange camp. The PRU-BYuT duopoly that will arise from the ruins of NUNS will not benefit Ukraine any more than the two-party system benefits the United States.

With LyB as the indispensable margin of safety, BYuT and NUNS should discover the joys and challenges of team play. They should roll up their sleeves in the war on poverty. The turf wars of the past must be made taboo.

The Orange coalition should confront Yanukovych’s gatecrash behavior with a well-designed benefits package. This is not a winner-take-all election. The Blue camp should be provided with strong, but reasonable incentives to keep the opposition job.

Amid reports of Friday BYuT-NUNS coalition talks, there is hope that the Orange Revolution’s third anniversary will not be defiled by NUNS’ PoRnification.


Anonymous said...

Hey Taras, I left a comment at the other Taras' blog on his post about Yulia being the real Victor where I argued briefly that maybe Yusch merits more exhortation to be a better leader.

I suspect based in part on this article that Yusch's many failures as a leader in the past three years stem some from the psychological impact of his poisoning on him. He may be turning a corner and it could really help things if he was encouraged to be more proactive and less statesmanlike, trying to be above the fray. I think this would also help ensure a better and more stable balance of power among the Oranges, too.


Taras said...

That’s true, David.

Dioxin still circulates through Ukrainian democracy. But this does not provide our President with an excuse for repeating the same mistake.

We should augment his rehabilitation by putting the pressure on him to name names and act responsibly.

Anonymous said...

I got an email from the other Taras...

"Good points. One problem which is major is that Yushchenko has never sought fit to listen to anybody and has surrounded himself with sycophants. How do you change such a personality in someone so late in life? The poisoning did not do this as I think arrogance was always there.
Think tanks, like the Razumkov Centre and the presidential think tank (NISS) have both complained at not being listened to.
The two successful political machines - BYuT and Regions - have leaders who do listen. Our Ukraine is a failed political machine.
Figure it out for yourself!"

I wrote back:well, that may be the case, but as folks speak out about the consequence of NuNs partnering with PoR, it wd also be right to criticize Yusch on his arrogance. I think that if many people are repeating the same message that he needs to be more engaged to avoid more serious failures like that of the past three years that it'll get thru... seems that he is being a stronger leader now according to your post above...


Taras said...

Hardly anyone in Ukraine can disprove Kuzio's judgment of Yushchenko's character and inner circle.

Still, let's give him the benefit of the doubt until we see the color and relationship dynamics of the coalition. Then we'll be free to update Yushchenko's leadership profile.

Anonymous said...

I wonder whether these thinktanks or others were not listened to prior to the poisoning?

I believe there was a significant behavioral change in Yusch after his poisoning, based on recall from stuff I read a while back in Zerkalo Nedeli.

I am not 100% that his dysfunctional leadership behavior has been a product of his entire life...

So please do exhort and get others to do as well!


Taras said...


Among elites preoccupied with grabitization, intellectual capital is no attention grabber.

My educated guess is that the poisoning weakened his strengths and strengthened his weaknesses. It sapped his energy and impaired his leadership qualities.

If we let shyrka happen, “one law for all” will never be found in Ukraine.

Taras said...

Btw, here's a nice movie about the Orange Revolution, h/t Pawlina of Nash Holos.

Pawlina said...

I see a real balance in opinions here, and it does really speak to how democracy works.

We are all human beings, including politicians and the rich and famous. As such, we can all be influenced and coerced. Here in the west the way we put it is "Everyone has their price."

Ukrainians now have the political system, a media as free as any in the west, and an electorate that is well-educated and better informed than most in the west.

So yes, you can apply pressure on your politicians and you should. How else will they know how to govern a free country, if the people don't talk to them? And remember, for the most part, "actions speak louder than words." ;-)

Taras said...


>>Ukrainians now have the political system, a media as free as any in the west, and an electorate that is well-educated and better informed than most in the west.

I wish that were true. At best, that vision is a decade down the road. And at the risk of sounding woefully whiny and ageist, I want the catching up to be done before my hair turns gray:)

If our president does shyrka, he will pay the price. He will no longer be remembered as the president of lost opportunities, but as the opportunist of a lost presidency.

I’m sure Tymonatrix won’t let me fail in my forecast:)