The Historian of My Heart

Слава Україні! East and West together!:)

Now that we’ve exchanged our brief family histories, it turns out we have a lot in common, both geographically and culturally. Not only do we have our roots in neighboring oblasts, but we also have our minds on neighboring wavelengths.
Your fotopages.com collection is fantastic, and I mean both ethnographic and personal sections;)! May Julija acquire the best of character traits her namesake has:)!

Pidhajtsi and Korets share similar landscapes and architectures. I tried locating Pidhajtsi (Підхайці?) on the map, but I guess I need your help:)

By the way, ages ago, I visited Riga and Jurmala (1990), and I absolutely loved it. The Dome Cathedral and St. Peter’s Tower; Jurmala’s amber beaches and aromatic pine forests… My friend’s sister lives there. How lucky the Balts were not to have “applied” for Soviet citizenship as early as we Ukrainians did.

Thank God, Korets, my paternal grandparents’ native town, belonged to a different country in 1932-33. The Holodomor was virtually unheard of there.
Vasyl, my maternal grandafather, nearly starved as a teenager in Holodomor-stricken Kupyansk, Kharkiv oblast. Of course, he always considered it nothing but a famine.

However, “knowing” the system from the inside, grandpa was open to alternative sources of information. His retirement before the dawn of the perestroika freed up time for him to keep abreast of current events.

And he cherished his “freedom of information.” After receiving his daily “Big Brother” rations in the Soviet evening news, he would go on a “night patrol,” a ritual I’ll never forget. Sealed in his room, he would spend an hour or two glued to an antique radio, trying to sort through the heavily jammed VOA, RFE/RL, and BBC broadcasts. These he called “alien voices” (ворожі голоси). Nevertheless, they must have held certain information value even for a card-carrying communist like him.

Mariya, my paternal grandmother, had an entrepreneurial streak in her. Despite a series of close-shave ОБХСС experiences, she stuck to her guns. (In those days, as you know, small business could translate into big jailtime.)

So, being the ball of fire that she was, she would storm the flea market to make the “Polish connection.” The Poles shuttled merchandise in and out of Ukraine, trading low-quality jeans, tape recorders, and bubble gum for Soviet-made home appliances, certain food items, and medications. Grandma did her share of strengthening trade relations. She would swap a few kilos of sugar for a pack of bubble gum, and that transaction meant the world to me.

Against a background of grave supply shortages in the USSR, bubble gum was the elixir of happiness for kids. It was a must-have attribute of Western civilization — the delicious genome of compassionate capitalism about to transplant itself into the stagnating Soviet system, so we thought. Back in the late 80s Kyiv, we kids had our “quality circles.” During these street forums we fervently discussed (the) Ukraine’s prospects of reaching America’s living standards. As funny as it sounds today, our most conservative forecast put us at 15 years away from Easy Street.

Born into a family of intelligentsia, I’ve been literate since the age of 4. My parents subscribed to a stack of papers, among them a carefully combed foreign press digest called Za Rubezhom (abroad). Though not exactly a child prodigy, by the age of 8, I had already gotten hold of the press in the house and had been vaguely conversant in global and local developments.

So, come November 1988, I “voted” Dukakis:) In spring 1989, I became one of the three top students in class to be promoted to the rank of pioneer, the Soviet equivalent of a boy scout. However, my loyalty to the Soviet regime was flailing, and so was the Soviet regime itself.

In spring 1989, I observed my first Rukh rally, and it was fun. That same year, I jumpstarted my English studies.

OK, enough:)! Oh my, why am I such a sucker for bucolic, pre-Kravchuk/Kuchma Ukraine? The retro/introspective dimension of my personality must have cultivated a sharpened sense of lost opportunities and cultural belonging. And I guess I should “blame” my dad for it. Listening to the full gamut of his counter-mainstream, colorful, high-octane WWII bedtime stories shaped me into the historian of my heart.

Anyway, I have friends here in Kyiv who are thoroughly addicted to western Ukraine. I myself plan to spend a few days in wintertime Korets.

Your public relations advice had me thinking. I started out almost a year ago, unsure about my involvement in the blogosphere.

All I wanted to do was write something big and beautiful so I could climb on top of it and say, “Hey! Look at me, I’m a smart guy and I speak idiomatic English!”
I hungered for feedback which I could use as a reference for employment purposes. That’s how I thought up this narcissistic URL of mine.

Now, where do I want to go with this material I’ve compiled? Do I want to continue in low-profile, aloof mode or do I want to go public, make myself blogger-friendly?

You’re 100 percent right. If I pick the latter strategy, I will need to create a friends section and spread the word blog-to-blog. Of course, I know the tradecraft:)

As you noticed, I’ve rebranded my blog to make it more communicative, succinct, and catchy. No, I haven’t seen "Syriana" yet, but I’ve already IMDBed it and I’d love to see it.

My primary concern about blogging is behavioral. You see, in my cyberlife, I’ve experienced symptoms similar to pathological gambling. When someone attacks me online, I just won’t stop until I get it off my chest, no matter how much time and effort it takes.

Given my occasional writer’s block, time management can become a joke. Here’s a case point. In March, I spotted two angry Ukrainophobes on Orangeukraine.squarespace.com and “enrolled” them in my history class. By initially mistaking me for Taras Kuzio, they took my enthusiasm to another level. I would revel in my status for weeks before finally revealing my true identity. In fact, the first guy who had cheered me up with the Kuzio hypothesis was DLW, my first and frequent reader. I want to thank him once again for the much-desired ego boost:)

And as for my ad hominem-prone “students,” there was no way I could quit lecturing until I hit them fair and square with the facts.

Unnerved by my blogorrhea, the blog owner probably blew a fuse and stopped publishing my comments. At that point, I felt sorry for myself, thinking, “Man, how could I be so damn attention-seeking?”

Since Ukraine is not Russia, as Kuchma put it in his ghostwritten “Україна – не Росія” bestseller, English is my third language:) While in high school and college I also spoke basic French and Spanish. (Not anymore.)

I consider myself a linguistic fundamentalist. English is my pride and joy. I won two bronze and one silver medal in districtwide English contests 1992-94. (District population: 300,000.) After failing the last stage of the 95’ FSA exchange program contest — for reasons still unclear to me — I avenged my hematomic ego by taking my business elsewhere. In fall 1995, I became a member of the America House Library. The rest is history.

Just one more boastful self-report here. When I’m in the right mood, I speak English with an accent so astoundingly American you wouldn’t know the difference.

That said, it goes without saying that near-native English speakers like me should know their limitations. That’s the only way we can push them.

Thank you for being a source of great encouragement in my endeavors. Do zustrichi v efiri:)!

Gone with the Nordic Wind
Yushchenko’s “EUro Party 2006” No Great Shakes

Except for Yushchenko’s crisp response to the Putin doctrine, the Ukraine-EU summit became just another talkathon typical of the Kuchma era.

No wonder, if we take into account his coalition capers, his newfound burden of multivectorism, and his acceptance of the dirty gas discount. The soiled political outfit in which he traveled to Helsinki made it extremely difficult for Ukraine to command credibility in the eyes of the Eurocrats.

As far as 2006 is concerned, President Yushchenko has exhausted his “give them something to believe in” list. So much for the guy who “walks the talk” on the WTO/NATO/EU.

The self-inflicted blow of the “Big in Helsinki” experience should have him rethink his ways. Or does he need a Borat-like figure to shake him up?

As long as he takes himself too seriously while not being serious about what he does, the Nordic wind will not subside.

Reg MPs Post Bail for Hacker

Somewhere outside the media’s current fixation on gas, there’s a story that merits attention.

A hacker ring that specialized in credit card forgery and cyber crime appears to have had well-connected talent on board.

With $4 mn worth of “business” over a period of two years, seven members will stand trial shortly and two remain at large, namely Andrew Kravchenko and Andrew Lazarev.

So where’s the fun? According to Gpu-ua.info, Dmytro Golubov, a resident of Odesa, was released on a 30,000 hryvnia bail posted by PRU MPs Volodymyr Demyokhin and Volodymyr Makeyenko.

Let’s pause to think for a moment. What in the world would motivate sensible politicians to risk their reputation?

Unfortunately, the source offers no comments from the MPs themselves.

Needless to say, if seized upon by the Western media, this “don’t ask, don’t tell” situation would create a fallout of adverse proportions for the Regions Party. Considering the blue oligarchs’ demand for Western credits as well as their IPO ambitions, it could become, if not actionable knowledge, at least food for thought.

Do PRU strategists believe that public relationships with back-door professionals open the doors of the world’s top financial institutions?

WTOeful Yushchenko Hits Helsinki

Now that Ukraine has locked in the $130 rate for 2007, witness the reloading of WTO/Euro optimism. That’s the lip-service message President Yushchenko will bring to the EU-Ukraine summit in Helsinki.

Last year, Yushchenko, the most vocal supporter of WTO entry, saw his country fail the entry exams. This year, given the conspicuous discount reflected in the $130 price tag, Ukraine’s prospects appear even more remote. From what can be observed, the only way Ukraine could become a member is by refusing the discount, which seems highly unlikely.

Surprisingly, just when the clouds started closing in the WTO won another top-level convert in Ukraine. Speaker Moroz has repeatedly expressed confidence that Ukraine, currently some 21 bills away from the WTO entry requirements, will make it by year end.

Roman Shpek, Ukraine’s envoy to the EU, believes that a free trade agreement with the EU can be signed prior to accession, provided the required legislation has been passed. Well, that’s the most realistic EUresult we should expect this year.

A Fradk-Off or Just a Façade?
Shortly after Fradkov’s departure, Yushchenko rebuked the Russian PM’s suggestions of synchronized WTO accession, saying that Ukraine and Russia should seek entry out on their own. He added that Ukraine would seek no advantage over Russia. Well, there’s no advantage to speak of. Sold out.

Russian Black Sea Fleet to Protect Ukraine from Ukrainians?
The Putin doctrine has had another public relations twist. Speaking at a press conference, Puttie offered the Russian Black Sea Fleet Ukraine as a perennial shield to protect Ukraine from outside meddling. (Mr. Putin, in case you haven’t noticed, by being so overprotective, you’ve just won yourself the Best Meddler Award.)

But wait until you hear this one. On the issue of the Crimea, Puttie volunteered the Russian experience in ethnic conflict resolution. What exactly did he allude to? The massacre in Chechnya? Or Russian multiculturalism, as applied to Georgia, for instance?

That’s how the $130 price tag smells, and it smells all the way to Helsinki.
Despite Ukraine’s strong human rights progress, the ladies and gentlemen he will be seeing there will probably do their own thinking.

They have every reason to question the sincerity of a man whose party has suffered from acute loss of political orientation, has approval ratings of about 9 percent and is led buy a man with a nonexistent sense of humor.

Korets: My Second Home

Thank you so much for reading my blog, Stefan:)!

Now I know this place is not as lonely as it sometimes feels.

During my three-day getaway to the countryside last week I had a wonderful opportunity to do some soul-searching and to reconnect with the cultural soul of Ukraine.

I was born in Kyiv, then capital of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine, in 1980 — a year that marked the beginning of the end. You know how the story goes: The Soviets invade Afghanistan, Washington boycotts the Moscow Olympic Games, and Reagan gets elected.

While rampant Russification in Kyiv rooted out all things Ukrainian, I spent every summer in Korets, Rivne oblast, where my grandparents lived. And it was there that my appreciation for Ukrainian culture sprang.

I always think of my grandparents as a sociocultural microcosm of Ukraine.

Mother’s parents come from Kharkiv oblast. Grandpa Vasyl, whose lifespan perfectly matches that of the Soviet regime (1917-1991), had a checkered career: NKVD officer, head of a kolhosp, insurance agent. Before his assignment to western Ukraine, he fought the Japanese in Chiang Kai-shek's China.

Still, in the twilight of his life, he lost his faith in the system and spoke openly about it. He died in the local hospital, just a few months before Ukraine declared its independence.

He could have lived longer, had it not been for negligence and medical supply shortages. We checked him into an organization that reflected the general state of affairs in the country. It was no longer the country whose socialist fabric he had worshipped. And there was no turning back.

Fifteen years after he passed away, grandma Halyna, who is 86, keeps herself updated in current events and can even be argued with.

Father’s parents — mother and step-father, to be precise — were a totally different crowd. Both deceased now, they provided food supplies and lodging for banderivtsi. Grandma Mariya barely escaped execution by the Germans.

Born in the first month of the occupation, my father still recalls how the Germans gunned down Jews and hanged banderivtsi. After the Germans retreated and the Soviets marched in, one of the banderivitsi secretly visiting their house proudly showed them a trophy gun which, as he claimed, had belonged to agent Kuznetsov. This legendary Soviet mole assassinated a cadre of high-ranking Germans in Rivne, then capital of Reich Kommissariat Ukraine.

The only problem was he worked for an agency far more repressive than the Gestapo.

So, you could say, my parents built themselves a Romeo-and-Juliet type of family. What set them apart from urban Soviet mainstream? They never unlearned Ukrainian, the language their parents spoke.

I have lots of friends in Korets, some of them members of the local NSNU chapter. We all share disappointment about the NSNU top brass.

This 800-year-old town of 8,000 I call my second home. Korets has a hallmark — a ruined castle situated on the rock overlooking the Korchik river. Magnificent! It’s this landscape that makes Korets the quintessence of small-town western Ukraine.

Vestiges of Polish and Jewish cultures can be found in the two old cemeteries on the town’s outskirts.

Hundreds, if not thousands, Koretsians are toiling as migrant workers in the EU and Russia. Yet, despite the potent forces globalization at work in Korets, some things are still the way they used to be when I was a kid.

Take courtship customs, for instance. Boy and girl go to disco, just like they do anywhere else in the world. But if it gets serious, boy will send his parents on a mission to get approval from girl’s parents.

That’s how Korets helps me recharge my batteries. It helps me look forward to the future with hope and confidence.

Give It To Me, Baby!
Gas @ $130 for FY 2007

Glory to the great gas-giving nation of Russia! The Ukrainian economy will make it through next year!

Despite a prior statement to the contrary, Fradkov and Yanukovych apparently did discuss gas during their Tuesday meeting. The new alleged offering: $130 per 1000 cubic meters, down from the previously forecast $135.

Why sell at a discount? Now here comes the punch line. Russia wants its sons to stay in charge, and is willing to back them with humanitarian aid.

This also implies that, with Yushchenko’s silent approval, Kyiv and Moscow have reached an understanding on the issue of Ukraine’s WTO and NATO accession. Ukraine will hold its horses, or to be more precise, will allow itself to be held in the missionary position, right?

Well, not the worst price, if we take a look around, as some might argue. But how does this paid deceleration relate to Yushchenko? It pulls the rug from under miles of deceptive $95/5 rhetoric Yushchenko and his gas baron Ivchenko have indulged in.

Undoubtedly, Ukraine’s employability in the WTO and NATO can be seriously restricted if the country’s industry and the public sector remain Europe’s most energy inefficient.

Some relief comes from the fact that the modernization movement is sweeping Ukraine’s industrial giants. IPO-bound SCM and ISD have already beaten a path to the world’s financial markets.

The big question, of course, is whether we common folks should pay for it with our geopolitical and economic liberties?

Reinvention or Retardation?
NSNU Convention Goes on Three-Week Recess

Following a harsh opening address by the honorable Chairman Yushchenko, Snoozers called it a day, leaving a huge time frame for behind-the-scenes politicking to do its work. Experts vary on the outcome. Will there be a revolution within a revolution or will the whole thing continue to rot?

Yushchenko’s grading rampage is long overdue, and so is his self-appraisal. It didn’t take two years for NSNU to slide from the top of the class to the definition of mediocrity.

Yushchenko Sux! Yushchenko Sux! Yushchenko Sux! Sux! Sux!
Remember the theme song of Maidan? (“Razom Nas Bahato”) Of course, back then it was tak, instead of sux, but you already got the idea. So, the biggest joke around Maidan today is: “2009. Dear friends, meet Victor Yushchenko, the PRU contender for the presidency.”

On the eve of Maidan second anniversary, Yushchenko presides over a party that closely resembles the Communist Party of the Soviet Union circa 1989. Not only did this apparatchik-infested garage flunk the parliamentary race, but it also made an outrageous effort to sell its soul for scrap to Donbas, without getting its asking price.

Fairly good at speechifying, Yushchenko is bad at concealing his fragile ego, or so it appears. No other character trait more aptly betrays his leadership failure. Guess what? Rather than waiting for an incoming earful of criticism from fellow Snoozers, he simply disappeared into thin air immediately after the sermon.

Katerynchuk Misses His Fluke
The soul of the reformist faction should call October 21, 2006 his Lost Opportunity Day. Despite half the assembly chanting his name, there wasn’t much of a response from the hero himself. He never took control. He should have taken to the stage and said something like, “Come with me if you want to live.” He didn’t. The lyubi druzi won. As the delegates dispersed, one could probably see Mr. Bezsmertny laughing his ass off at what a pussy you are.

Fradk Off?
Visiting Russian PM Mikhail Fradkov has said that the gas issue will not be on the agenda. The leave-me-alone statement came amid widespread concern that the anticrisis coalition may be willing to bargain away some of Ukraine’s national interests. What are they? Accession to the WTO and NATO, as some sources indicate. What can’t our cash-strapped industrialists do in exchange for measured gas price increases?

Ukrainize!
The fifteen years of Ukraine’s independence have finally convinced State that Ukraine and the international community is linguistically better served with Kyiv, the Ukrainian version, rather than with Kiev, the Russian version. It’s never too late to change your mind! Keep up the good work, Condi.

Tymophobia a Theme in NSNU’s Opposition Behavior

Contrary to what Tymoptimists had expected, the separation of the Yanushchenko conjoined twins, deeply mourned by both, has not facilitated even a mild recovery for the Orange Revolution.

So far, all those childish Valentines with which Tymoshenko has bombarded NSNU’s ward have been treated as spam. Instead, NSNU has launched its “European Ukraine” pet project, essentially a political asylum for second-class parties like Pora, PRP, HDS, etc. No such invitation has been extended to BYuT.

Apparently, Saber Toothed Snoozers depend on the ice age for their survival. Whereas NSNU considers itself to be a right-of-center icon of Europeanness, it looks on BYuT as a left-of-center geopolitical mobile circus, and an incorrigibly populist one. For them, Tymo carries the badge of multivectorism, thanks to her alleged hush-hush visits to Russia. She may deny it, but her party’s roster is indeed overpopulated by petty oligarchs. These BYuTiful people, some of which have already walked away on her, had to pay hefty subscription fees to get in and are now uncomfortable with their opposition lot, since it’s not what they bargained for.

In fact, the same syndrome has evidenced itself in NSNU, as it used a similar technique in building its roster. That’s how atavistic denizens of the Kuchma regime have penetrated both Orange camps.

When blasting Tymoshenko on populism, apparatchik Bezsmertny somehow forgets the populist cross his patron Yushchenko bore back in 2004, but never delivered.

Historians with a selective memory should at least reevaluate their academic credentials. Before giving Tymo the cold shoulder, they should file a progress report on their unspoken “No Thug Left Behind Bars” policy, with a registry of prisonless gangsters in this country attached. (“Бандити сидітимуть в тюрмах.”) Or how about a “Righteous Rich” catalogue of those rare noblesse oblige species, so we poor folks could worship them? (“Багаті допоможуть бідним.”)

Who’s the Best Opp?
At a time when Yanukovych Republicans are singing paens to the West in Washington Post placements, NSNU’s interpretation of Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” also know as the EU anthem, could be dubbed the “Orange Curtain.”

Needless to say, this intra-opposition Cold War weakens both parties and plays into the hands of Regs. Yushchenko has a long way to go to start making sense again. What do you make of his plans to step down as the Moses of NSNU? Should we expect a council shakeup? Hopefully, the upcoming NSNU convention will clear some things up.

Even with fresh blood now circulating on Bankova, the rejuvenation of the flatliner Yushchenko has become into a falcon watching every move Yanukovych makes will not happen overnight.

Guaranteed, they have their ideological differences, but synergy works better than solo. Yet both have a chance to prove their love for taxpayers by voluntarily curtailing their parliamentary golden parachutes.

Regardless of how her love and hate relationship with NSNU will proceed, it’s opposition that puts the O in Tymo.

Happy Birthday, Mr. President

Anna Politkovskaya (née Mazepa)


1958-2006

RIP

friend of the free world,

arch-enemy of the Putin regime,

daughter of the Ukrainian people,

and one of the countless gunned down, poisoned, butchered, smothered, or “disappeared” people who had the guts and intelligence not to keep their mouths shut in a war led by post-Soviet tsars against their people.

Orgy Over: NSNU Pulls Out

We have a pulse! After a near-death political experience of speeding through a tunnel of scorpionic turf wars and disgusting extramarital affairs, NSNU has shown signs of returning to life. As of the evening of Oct 4, 2004, NSNU announced its withdrawal from the enlargement talks to assume an opposition role with regard to the PRU-SPU-CPU coalition. NSNU also vowed to recall its share of ministers nesting in the coalition since August.

Note: Due to their special status in charting EU-NATO integration policy and constitutional immunity from coalition considerations, Defense and Foreign ministers will probably stay put. Short of the latter two, whoever refuses to follow this instruction will be purged from the party.

In Ukraine’s diametrically opposed geometry of electoral sympathies, of which all parties had tried to remain mindful, yesterday’s gymnastic event achieved some semblance of emancipation from the prodigal sabbatical that had blighted NSNU’s career for months.

It’s not everyday that you flip on your TV to the splendid scene of Yushchenko’s legion having its chakras flung wide open and turning its face back toward the people.

Opposites Attract?
Not this fall. The final failure in fine-tuning two divergent agendas has resulted in the Regs’ Zen-like patience and AVN-style sex appeal being wasted all for naught. What a déjà vu! Fall 2006 brings the Orange guys together back again together under what may eventually mushroom into an opposition umbrella.

However, NSNU fans should not read much pathos into the event. Pragmatism offers a far better perspective. Observing the coalition behave like a bull in a china store must have knocked some sense into NSNU fence-sitters. It doesn’t take a PET-scan to realize what happened. There came a precious moment when they did the math and saw more advantages to jumping back to their own side, rather than seek humiliating accommodations. The realization that being on the wrong side may wipe them off the map in the next election surely has kept their blood pressure sky-high.

Winter will put the coalition to the test. PRU office holders are facing a whole Himalayas of chilling issues in the public sector. Chief among them: making utilities affordable and keeping the infrastructure well shaped and supplied and throughout the subzero season. If Regs are to make good on their promise of “Better Living Today,” they should roll up their sleeves. But whenever they try, all we see are their Vacheron Constantin watches, to the tune of the annual remuneration that we as taxpayers as have to make available to them. No way are they meeting their PR sales quota. Recent polls suggest the Yanukovych Cabinet has not added a penny to Ukrainians’ livelihood. They’ve probably discovered that underneath the surface “Better Living Today” has a doppelganger called “Death and Decay.”

Got Gas?
“Vote Yanukovych, and voilà! Russia gives you all the gas in the world" My dear Eastern friend, if that’s how your brain worked this spring, prepare for cryogenic therapy this winter.

It’s safe to conclude that no belly-kissing was performed on Yanukovych during his secret Moscow voyages. That poor little boy captured by the camera remains the only one to date.

The Kremlin’s policy of pricing escalationism appears nonnegotiable. SCM needs gas? On your own dime, gentlemen. Royally pissed about the NSNaU revoir, the proffessor posse has left the door open.

People define themselves by who they aren’t, a rule that hardly detracts from the value of team play. If NSNU retracts its “bridges burned” position, it will need the FBI’s finest team of DNA experts to id its political corpse.

When Diamonds Are a Girl’s Worst Friends
Because the 2007 budget proposal, if not amended, promises little in way of binge eating for the little man, Yushchenko have said that he will veto it. Meanwhile, a battle flared up in the Rada over the current MP benefits program that grants each MP with a panoply of perks such as a title to a Kyiv apartment worth upwards of half a million dollars.

Yuliya Tymoshenko, one of the most outspoken critics of the program, became the woman of the day. Interestingly enough, as the local face of Luis Vuitton, she has frequently drawn flak for her affluenza-stricken outfits. That’s why could not escape being the target of an ad hominem attack. PRU heavyweight Yevhen Kushnarev attempted to thwart her social responsibility drive by speculating that the necklace she was wearing on that day alone could sustain an average Ukrainian family for five years.

A gleeful Tymo rushed to the rostrum to submit her belongings for evaluation, which the press corps eagerly did. Soon, it turned out Mr. Kushnarev had made a seriously flawed assessment.

The jewellery expert consulted by the press corps estimated the book value of the necklace to be in the neighbourhood of $200, this being a costume jewellery item presumably made in the United Arab Emirates. Of course, its post-evaluation publicity-laden market value may have climbed hundredfold. The moral of the story: A self-enforced dress code can save you from a public relations disaster.

Azaroff with Attitude, or Regionomics Rules!
“Better Living Today” Starts with a “Better” Budget

Speaking in Parliament last week, Finance Minister Mykola Azarov sliced and diced a diet budget proposal from Chef Viktor Yanukovych. Neither NSNU nor BYuT displayed much appetite. “That’s one hell of a budget for a weight watcher like me,” the Evita Peron of Ukrainian politics probably thought, as she sat through the PowerPoint presentation that had her on the verge of vomiting.

After reading the menu between the lines, Snoozers sounded the alarms on the strange and sudden death of a maternity benefit program. One of Yushchenko’s “populist” policies, the program has pledged some $1,700 in several installments to mothers of new-born babies. Because hundreds of thousands of families have relied on it to cover some of the expenses, a change in government policy could affect procreation decisions nationwide. What could be more anti-democratic in a low-income country slowly recovering form a decade of depopulation?

Since the barren 90s, when the birth of Oligarchs Inc instituted abusive patterns of stratification for the rest of the country, Ukraine has shed some 5 million of its population. Today’s demographic resurgence, while far from a baby boom, raises hope that population growth will finally break even.

With his budgeting behavior now compromised, Azaroff threw a graceful wish-you-well cover-up. He smiled on the distressed gene pool, proudly saying that the program will continue unscathed. He then explained that the funding criteria reflected in the proposal simply restricted the program’s eligibility to financially disadvantaged applicants.

Too many hearts in this country refuse to melt when social responsibility crawls into the Regionalists rhetoric. A little bureaucratization here and there — and you will have to carry a second baby full term before you collect these much-needed monies for your first one.

The good news: Extraclinical research indicates that fear of negative publicity sometimes works to destroy other potent fears. The experience of being caught red-handed can trigger an adrenaline response that partially inhibits the panic welfarephobic syndrome, a state of acute anxiety known to affect top-ranking officials. It occurs when the patient believes that current levels of government spending may eat into the profit margins of the interest group he or she represents.

Humor aside, the mind boggles at the thought of whatever esoteric budget pranks may be buried well below the public’s immediate grasp.
Key budget projections:
Revenues.........................................................UAH 180 bn
Expenditures…...............................................UAH 200 bn
Budget deficit, as a percentage of GDP……..2.55 percent
GDP growth………………………………….6.5 percent
Inflation, annual……………………………...7.5 percent
Loans, domestic ……………………………..USD 1 bn
Loans, foreign………………………………..USD 10 bn

Not an entirely self-reliant budget, isn’t it?

The Old Deal, or the New Ordeal
In dire need of maintaining high visibility of activity, Tymo approached the budget issue in the mood of cougar-like agility, intent on signing NSNU home cats to an opposition deal. She postulated that their shared indigestion of the budget proposal could become the basis for an allied BYuT-NSNU opposition. As an extension of this initiative, she called for a shadow government to be formed.

Championing the cause of scaling back the utility hike has benefited her employability. She even gets unsolicited offers! Yushchenko, for instance, has mentioned the possibility of appointing her to the NSC job. She had no immediate comment. (Go, go Tymo! You da bomb! But wait a minute, et tu BYuT? No, this can’t be true. Maybe the point is, you will create more opposition value by being inside the game? According to this line of reasoning, the sales pitch of the sensational would-be offer in question appears crystal clear. It invites you to exercise your biological imperative. By playing out your dominatrix fantasies on the scene, you will provide a Condi Rice-like counterweight for the shorthanded Yushchenko to stand up to Yanukovych.)

More seriously, Tymo’s protégé Mykola Tomenko has been shortlisted for the Speaker job. As for this courteous concession, less far-fetched than the previous scenario, it should not be confused with a mere giveaway. If confirmed, Tomenko will take some of the sting out of the lone ranger in her, and, most important, the act will solidify a reciprocity-based precedent to fall back on in case the government changes hands.

Attention public sector employees! Oligarchs Inc strikes again. Those of you who licked their lips for a New Deal-type of social contract from the Yanuke Cabinet, you have a dirty mind. This man Azaroff — you better read his lips. Not only does he speak horrible Ukrainian without feeling sorry for the linguistic Chernobyl he creates, but he also has a leg in tax collection. You got it right! Whether you work a nine to five job or run a small business, he’s out to trim a little fat off your pockets. Your ballooning incomes are a menace to Ukraine’s ramshackle industry! As you consume ever more conspicuously, thy poor neighbor, the oligarch, scrimps and saves for innovation. How dare you have a feast amid famine? This goes no further!

Get ready for a low-cholesterol diet next year. Your planned salary raises will be cut in half. Also waiting for you is a 2 percent increase in the payroll tax. There’s yet another trend at work here. FY 2007 Cabinet maintenance and administrative expenses will surge 47 percent. Hallelujah!

And, yes, it’s the economy stupid! A massive PR lobotomy involving an airborne assault of GOP-leaning talent — like the one that claimed you during the spring parliamentary campaign — doesn’t come for free. From now on, expect no more passionate overtures to the welfare state. Regs, who vowed to rid the land of poverty, are now busy reassessing their strategy with a view to bringing your middle-class aspirations to a plateau.

Yanuke the Ripper
“Live it to the fullest!” That’s the maxim of the old school of thought now repatriating itself to the upper tiers of government, skilled as it is in the art of Kuchmocracy. Intoxication with power regained by a stroke of dumb luck, or, rather, orange dumbness, sends sparks to Yanukovych’s eyes.

The corollary would be “Take whatever you can and run if you have to.” All this adds up to strategy that could go by the name of Yanuke the Ripper, or Regionomics, a strategy of reaping quick benefits before a possible coalition collapse. By no means does this imply outright embezzlement. Those days are gone. Sophistication is the word today. Put your men at the helm of a mammoth monopoly like Naftohaz, Ukrzaliznytsya, or Ukrtelekom — and you have cash flows running wild, straight into your hands, and in pretty legit ways.

Reaganomics v Regionomics
When matched against Regionomics in terms of serving private interests, Reaganomics pales by comparison. For all his worship of free market forces, for all the bruises inflicted on the welfare state, for all the unfair tax cuts and untold budget deficits, for all the excesses of deregulation and decentralization, the good ol’ Ronnie would never support Spanish as a second official language. For that matter, neither would the Spanish-speaking Dubya, nor even the soft-on-immigration Governator.

In contrast, Regs are conservatives in a sense that Reps aren’t. Regs are compassionate about conserving what communism created. That explains why many of them don’t care enough to learn Ukrainian. They exhibit little compassion for the victims of communism And what makes it even more funny, they are capitalists.

Aside from time and space constraints, it is motivational sets that keep Regionalists and Reaganites words apart. Whereas Reaganites had the Evil Empire to contend with, Regionalists have a closely-held, export-oriented commodity empire to take care of.

Despite the brand of supply-side economics firmly attached to it, Reaganomics arguably produced a host of demand-side effects. It did so through sexier defense budgets in an arms race that drained the economy out of the Evil Empire, whose Ukrainian share of industrial remnants is now possessed by proponents of Regionomics.

Regionomics therefore has more of a supply-side profile, something Regionomics doesn’t have. Cheap labor and natural resources — the key ingredients that go into the competitive advantage of Ukraine’s aged, energy-inefficient, low-tech industry — are more of a curse than a blessing. The heavy guns of post-Soviet industry will hardly keep Ukrainians’ lungs clean, nor will they churn much butter, economically speaking.

So, except maybe for the promise of better living for themselves, the promise-packed campaign Regs orbited with the expertise of GOP talent stands little chance of gaining escape velocity. This about wraps up the stellar conquest of “Better living today” for the rest of us.

Tax-Free Zones Get a Fresh Start, But Not Working Seniors
After lying fallow for a few years, tax-free zones are back in business. Finance Minister Azarov, a staunch advocate of these economic preserves, claims that tax-free zones have a history of cultivating oases of innovation in this country. If you find yourself at loss for recalling any quantum leaps in innovation, there’s another side to this story.

Gossipy pundits have long wagged their tongues over these oases being economic black holes for siphoning money out of the government in countless VAT crimes. They have also traced them as points of entry for smuggling billions of dollars worth of uncertified consumer goods and foodstuffs. If by and large what they say is true, then these “Silicon Valleys” incorporate a skunkworks of the shadowy economy that keep money and goods on a neverending joyride in and out of the country. Such core competencies fit them into the category of political fiefdoms. Exactly what cult of innovation do they belong to, Mr. Azarov?

Attention seniors who bring home a few extra hryvnyas worth of bacon! You can’t have too much of a good thing. Stay home and smell the happiness. Just where do you think the expression “death and taxes” came from?

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, you just became unwitting test subjects in somebody’s dirty little scheme.

All Is Not Quiet on Mount Olympus
By bouncing a sheaf of executive orders, Chief of Mischief Yanukovych may have amused himself, but he surely enraged Zeushchenko (pardon the portmanteau), who has every reason to be paranoid about losing his grip on power. “Just who the hell you think you are?” roared the prime deity in Ukraine’s pantheon of politics as he cast his thunderbolt.

This happened the day PRU legal eagles falsely instructed their patron that his refusal to countersign executive orders constitutes a veto policy. Once aware of having overstepped his authority, Yanukovych responded with pacifying gestures like “we’re in it together” and “there’s room for everyone.” However, he hasn’t pardoned the five oblast governors on his hit list, Yushchenko’s appointees, whose dismissal he has vigorously demanded.

On Wednesday, October 4, NSNU convenes to pass its final decision on whether or not to join the coalition. Its position: NSNU will settle down only if the coalition goes by the book, that is, by the Universal of National Unity.

Earlier, Speaker Moroz issued a love-it-or-leave statement, warning that unless NSNU joins, it has no place in the government. However, one caveat is in order. The Constitution says that, no matter what happens, the President retains his coalition-exempt share of Cabinet appointees, namely Ministers of Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs.

Tired of fighting his little town blues with routine acts of spraying canned pontifications on a weary public, President Yushchenko has set out to refashion this staff. It takes quite a bit of courage to sanitize his tabernacle of the lyubi druzi (beloved buddies), the two words that have become a cliché for the beehive of cronies he’s compiled around himself.

Recent staffing decisions have led some experts to believe that the President plans to “make a brand new start of it,” as Frank Sinatra put it in his “New York, New York.” The timing could not be more perfect. For the first time since the Orange Revolution, his approval ratings have plunged below Premier Yanukovych’s.

That’s why Yushchenko keeps delayering the lyubi druzi — in the hope of winning back some of the supporters he has alienated. Among others, the new wave of talent features former Emergency Management chief Viktor Baloha and former Economics Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Baloha made a name for himself when he stormed out of the then-almighty SDPU and took a load of followers with him. He has replaced Oleh Rybachuk as Chief of Staff. Well-connected in the pre-Revolution government, Yatsenuyk has earned praise for being one of the finest Young Turks in finance and is considered to be an asset to the economic section.

The change of the guard didn’t sop there. Spokeswoman Iryna Herashchenko, Yushchenko’s confidante of five years, stepped down in a move she described as the “passing of the baton. Iryna Vannikova, who has made a sterling career in news, took the baton.

The big question, of course, is whether changes in style will be matched by changes in substance. Unless improvements in public relations go hand in hand with improvements in policymaking, no improvement will be made overall. External decorum cannot substitute for internal dynamics.

Maidan Graffiti Comes to Grief?
Vice Premier Andriy Klyuev (PRU) has urged the Central Post Office, to have the relic of the Orange Revolution erased due to what he termed as politically incorrect, obscenity-laced content.

Taken under a protective glass covering since 2005, the graffiti has beautified the entrance columns of Maidan’s chief edifice. No wonder this vivid piece of history, located at the epicenter of the Orange Revolution, has horrified the likes of Mr. Klyuev and his Austria-based brother, foiled as they were by people power in 2004. And those who did this to them are now too traumatized to put up much resistance.

That’s why the second anniversary of Maidan may find a blank space in place of the bittersweet mementoes still dear to them.

I Know What You Didn’t Do Last Summer: A Marriage by Arrangement Not Yet Consummated

Following a honeymoon complete with travails of one sort or another, half-pregnant NSNU still hasn’t said yes de jure.

Lo and behold, the re-enthronement of Russia’s favorite son Yanukovych found Ukraine in pain at the pump and at the kitchen stove. Other miracles include an expected 2007 natural gas bill of $135, talk of “innovation-oriented” wage freezes, and the lightspeed schedule of VAT rebates for the “Ultimate Region” of Donbas, totaling 221 percent of the amount owed. Terrific, isn’t it? Think about it.

Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, welcome the strange bedfellows who got lost between the sheets of the Universal of National Unity. Watch them enter the back-to-school season having an unfinished homework assignment. How could this be? Five weeks into cohabitation, these not-yet-marrieds blame paperwork and each other for the embarrassment of not having finalized their union legally.

So infuriated are snoopy Snoozers (NSNU) with rugged Regs (Regionalists) for not keeping commitments outlined in the Universal that some of them even threatened to break off the engagement right in the middle of labor and join the opposition.

Perhaps a controlling C-section will be negotiated by President Yushchenko, in the spirit of preserving and protecting test-tube baby “Ukraine United.”

Uncle Yu Wants You for the Yanuke Army, No Questions Asked
NSNU’s presence in the Yanukovych Cabinet includes defense, interior, foreign, and justice ministries, aside from a number of less influential positions.

Key is the question of whether NSNU will join in whole or in part. In all likelihood, a small faction of conscientious objectors will remain outside, acting as a public relations safety valve. This antenna will be used for communicating the “punks not dead” message to the distressed voters in western Ukraine.

Short of that, nobody walks out the door unchallenged. Embryonic plans by splinter activists like Mykola Katerynchuk to spin off a separate party true to the ideals of the Orange Revolution have been stifled by the top brass.

So far, NSNU has not abandoned the idea of having the CPU brushed off, a reapportionment which would effectively entitle NSNU, the second largest power, to a golden share in the coalition.

To the Moon and Back
Hardly a year passes by without Ukraine making some pivotal achievement in the realm of democracy. For the first time in Ukrainian history, moonlighting ministers have been shorn of their parliamentary seats in strict compliance with the Constitution of Ukraine. The last two men standing at the bitter crossroads of choice making are Justice Minister Roman Zvarych and Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky.

BYuTy and the Beast
Just before Yanukovych flew to Brussels, where he ducked the NATO issue we’re-not-ready style yet took pains to sell Eurocrats on the Europeanness of his Cabinet, his fellow Regs waged war on the welfare state.

No longer beating the drums for “Better Living Today,” the PRU has killed a motion by BYuT to impanel a commission to investigate the recent utility hike mandated by the government.

Having warmed herself up as the Gas Princess of the 90s, Tymo probably knows what she’s talking about when grilling the government. The brunt of her argument: Ukraine produces enough natural gas of its own to cover domestic consumer demand. — and at much lower costs than those built into gas exports from Russia and Turkmenistan.

So, she says, murky traders with connections in the government peddle this cheap in-house gas abroad at a fat profit while forcing Ukrainian households into funding expensive gas imports. That’s how corruption burns Ukraine’s gas candle at both ends, adding to the grand fortune of the few while decimating the tight family budgets of the many.

More to the point, Tymo concludes, the premium price paid by Ukrainian households for exports goes straight to the coffers of RosUkrEnergo, hardly a see-thru business.

Meanwhile, three Byuties have deserted the opposition camp for greener “anticrisis” pastures, prompting Tymo to seek legal action against the culprits so as to expel them from Parliament. Eight more are believed to be runaway-minded.

Some Can’t Get No Satisfaction
Alas, junior coalition partners SPU and CPU may be in for a rude awakening to their silly status in the coalition’s division of labor. King Yanukovych (traditional) and Queen Yushchenko (transgendered) lay down the house rules. They can play hardball, enjoying a two-for-the road bill-passing capability. This allows them the safety of making “capitalist” laws independent of the other two also-rans.

Judging from these potentially exclusive behavioral patterns, several ideas come to mind.

On the one hand, the best way to think of the role reserved for Socialists and Communists is that of eunuchs in King Yanukovych’s and Queen Yushchenko’s court. (Caught in the blatant act of collaboration with capitalists, these votaries of Marxism-Leninism from time to time have to cover themselves with the fig leaf of Das Kapital.)

On the other hand, should the PRU chose to fraternize with the SPU and CPU on legislation of common interest to them and Moscow, they still would have NSNU and BYuT standing in their way and would hardly scramble the 300 votes necessary to overcome a presidential veto.

The Sad Air of the Approaching Anniversary
Still, whatever bargaining chips NSNU brings to the table, there’s no mistaking betrayal.

As Ukraine moves closer to the second anniversary of Maidan, creative agony overwhelms Yushchenko’s speechwriters. How many people does their patron hope to enchant now that Maidan’s has been downgraded to something of a Ground Zero?

Despite the obvious overstatement in the above analogy, the concept of zero gravity comes in handy. It best describes the attachment between the promises made by those who took turns in mounting the rostrum and the actual outcomes they delivered.

So, fellas, what do we expect at showtime? Some autistically pompous, “still-going-strong,” “that’s-how-it-was-supposed-to-be” peroration? “Yee-ha! East and West Together!” “Wasn’t it what you folks stood for?” Save the lecture for your kids, Mr. President. We know better than that.

Так! Янукович (Yes to Yanukovych!)
Yushchenko “Unites” Ukraine, Unnerves His Voters

It may sound rather alarming, but Mendelssohn’s “Wedding March” and Chopin’s “Funeral March” have never been so close. In the dead of the night August 3, 2006, President Yushchenko decided to commission into MP service the zombie he had tried to ward off two summers ago. By performing this Faustian rite of passage, Yushy became a partner in the betrayal of people who had catapulted him into power. He thus signed his own death certificate, as far his reelection chances are concerned.

Hiding behind the lofty “unite Ukraine” rationalization, he now prides himself on having sweetened the pill of the Yanuke appointment with a bunch of concessions.

These plain-vanilla concessions include subscription to the NATO membership action plan and recognition of Ukrainian as the official language. (Should we assume that the likes of MP Vasyl Tsushko (SPU), who uttered not a word of Ukrainian during the talks, will be held in contempt of the Verkhovna Rada? And which of the two prospects is less remote — man landing on Mars or Ukraine landing in NATO under Yanukovych the PM?)

Having ratified Yushchenko’s much-fetishized Universal, the Regs put the blinders on the public and laid the ground for the Snoozers’ to walk the aisle. Likewise, they newly-weds have sugarcoated their lovechild the Coalition of National Unity. (Suggested motto: “Cheaters and liars of Ukraine, unite.”)

If that’s how they want to market it, then why had their “unicorn” left underpenetrated a total of 14 oblasts, whose 25 to 45 percent of voters supported BYuT? Are these people somehow alien or opposed to the idea of uniting Ukraine in terms of values? And had those 3 Western oblasts, deeply wounded by Soviet oppression, given their hearts to NSNU only to have them urinated on by the Kremlin’s pets?

This leads us to believe that the parties to the Universal of National Unity had their minds united around some other set of values, namely increasing the value of their possessions. In this case, geography has little to do with it. It’s all about the green — “green” as in cash. Yanushchenko may peddle their unification vaudeville all they want, but savvy consumers won’t but it.

Of course, the truth will not hit home until fall descends on Ukraine and the public comes home from vacations. It is then that couch potatoes will be able to observe the Yanuke Cabinet in dance.

What a leap of faith: throwing yourself in the arms of those whom you had accused of plotting your murder and stealing the election! Boy will you pay for you gutless decision when the next election comes. Tymo the “Lone Ranger” will surely take your Boys' Club on.

If Yushy sincerely hopes that, with his Snoozers “in” and watching things closely, the Regs will behave, he is seriously mistaken. “Let bygones be bygones” doesn’t work that way. Your "just-married" SUV will do Ukraine no good because it comes straight from the boulevard of broken promises. Don’t we know what their word is worth, Mr. Yushchenko?

You became President by being right about everything that was wrong with this country. And now you are the one who stepped to the wrong side — and the people have the eyes to see. In that sense, maybe you have no right to be President anymore. Ганьба!

Roundtable Talks Stall on Rough Edges and Soft Utopianism

In a series of powwows continuing well into night, President Yushchenko and parliamentary leaders are toiling to put a handle on a Pandora’s Box of disputes arising from the newly-emerged “anticrisis” coalition.

A cadre of guest speakers attended the opening session, including the founding fathers of Ukrainian democracy such as Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine’s first President (1991-94), and Ivan Plyushch, Speaker of the VR (1991-94). Also present were renowned poets and academics.

Former President Kuchma was conspicuous by his absence. Kuchma fans watching the live broadcast surely missed out on all the fun he would bring to it. After being a decade of being a captive audience to the genius of Kuchma’s eloquence and insightfulness, the loss they’ve felt is irreparable. Sad enough, except for occasional sightings, the retired pastor seems to shun his quondam parish.

The “salt of the earth” took turns in speaking their minds and troubleshooting hot issues. Each belted a song of his own, replete with barbs and rambling lectures.
Naturally, opinions ranged between two poles. Whether he likes it or not, the President should take the “anticrisis” coalition as a given argued the pro-acceptance school of thought. In contrast, the pro-abstinence school of thought suggested that the President disband Parliament. As expected, prospective membership in NATO and the status of the Russian language became instant sticking points.

Yushchenko stood his ground on these key issues, projecting an image of a tough negotiator. Tymo cruised around in a combative mood, while Yanuke, navigated the conciliatory harbor. Later, his fellow Regs bewailed Yushchenko’s “bait-and-switch” tactics. They expressed disappointment over the President’s demands, which they consider grossly out of proportion with NSNU’s election score. Also, the pointed out that the resolution being drafted, known as the Universal of National Unity, makes no mention of Yanukovych’s Premiership. The Universal owes its name to a series of four declarations (Universals) issued by the government of the UNR, the short-lived independent Ukrainian state squashed by Lenin.

Needless to say, the show sent Maidaners wondering what this was all about. A desensitization infomercial from Yushchenko’s PR shamans? A preamble to the NSNU-PRU prenup agreement, under the guise of piecing together the East and the West? Now that Washington’s eyes are glued to the war between Israel and Lebanon, could it be just an eyewash meant to sweet-talk the Orange audience into believing that this is how things should be?

Where does the government-opposition fault line lie? Is it in terms of issues, in terms of the election results, or in terms of fear of losing power? If NSNU’s joining the “anticrisis” coalition is about national unity, then why does it split the Orange Revolution — the very engine that brought NSNU to power? Two steps forward, three steps back. Welcome to the schizophrenic world of the Orange Counter-Revolution.

Anyway, the talks will resume Tuesday, August 1. This day will mark the 15th anniversary of the notorious “Chicken Kiev” address Bush Sr. delivered during his visit to the capital of then Soviet Ukraine. For those who vaguely remember it, listen to this: “Freedom is not the same as independence; Americans will not support those who seek independence in order to replace a far-off tyranny with a local despotism." Can anybody imagine that this piece Moscow-centric garbage that flies in the face of Wilsonianism actually came from the pen of Condi Rice?

Karmically speaking, the Universal exemplifies the worst of branding choices, considering how the UNR had fared. Why not call it the Universal of National Utopia? The UNR government, run by Socialists, had naively relied on the assumption that the dictatorship of the proletariat would not attack a socialist democracy.

Ukraine remains one of the few nations in the democratic universe where the opposition and the government can’t settle their identities. The Snoozes (NSNU) seem to be lost in the Peter Pan-like fantasy of squaring the circle, keeping the West while shacking up with the PRU. It’s this misguided dreaming, not the Regs’ (Regionalists) dominance itself, that makes this country vulnerable to outside influence.

Format C:oalition
Operation Reg Roulette, or How the Socialists Scammed the Selfish

Just when the would-be government and opposition seemed to have reached a win-win solution, lifting the rostrum blockade and averting mass starvation, something else kicked in. Having co-opted Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz as the Trojan Horse, the Regionalists mounted a surprise counteroffensive that redrew the battlefield to their advantage. These strange bedfellows overran the fledgling ego-sandbagged Orange coalition in a brilliant backstage maneuver (read: backstab), a feat that qualifies Mr. Moroz for Con Artist of the Year.

Ecstatic about the course of events in Kyiv was Viktor Medvedchuk, a well-known friend of Russia and the man whose media management skills had worked wonders when he served as Kuchma’s Chief of Staff. From the golden resorts of Monte Carlo, Mr. Medvedchuk blew kisses to his home, sweet home. Needless to say, the Russian Duma, jumped for joy. Russian MPs hailed the freshly-minted Ukrainian Speaker Moroz and “eulogized” the demise of the Orange Revolution. Bursting with candor, Russian Vice Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the son of a Ukrainian-born Jew, carried the point further. He used the occasion to unshelf his blueprint for better bilateral relations, which, far from being innovative, prescribes partitioning Ukraine into East and West.

Nothing better defines the geopolitical slant of the Socialist scam in Ukraine than this instant rash of endorsements from Russia and friends. Bravo, Mr. Putin! On the eve of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, the freedom-loving people of Ukraine are sending you a hilarious shipment of joke fodder with which to regale your powerful guests. Less than two years after you prematurely congratulated him, your man regains his potency. What could be more debilitating to critics of Russia’s foreign policy than news of Ukraine reorienting itself on its own volition?

Ukraine’s Burning Questions
It’s the butt of Puttie’s jokes who populate the questions Ukraine’s struggling with. Now that Operation Reg Roulette has sunk the Orange Fleet to the bottom of political food chains, the castaways have a lot of homework to do.

1. Will the austerities they face help BYuT and NSNU rekindle togetherness and regroup into opposition?

2. Or will NSNU, a longtime PRU seductee, leave BYuT stranded and join the club (read: couch), in a departure from their caucus’s preliminary decision to seek repeat elections?

3. What position would NSNU enjoy in this arrangement?

4. Will Yanukovych become PM?

5. If BYuT and NSNU stick together, to what extent will PRU headhunters succeed at Balkanizing them, apart from the several “free radicals” whose voting patterns already smack of defection?

6. Will the powers that be (read: pirates) preserve all the privileges granted to the opposition?

7. What are the pros and cons of disbanding Parliament and are there enough grounds?

Tymo out of a Limo
Obviously, no one feels more upset in the new world order than Tymoshenko. The Joan of Arc of Ukrainian politics still has to recover from the shock of having to kiss good-bye to the prized PM position. There she is — all dressed up and nowhere to go, back to square one. If NSNU, driven by its financial faction, dives into the PRU-SPU-CPU loveshack, she will find herself booked in the Orange Orphanage. Now hear this! In his recent interview, Kuchma, the poltergeist of Ukrainian politics, gave his hearty welcome to this ménage a quatre concept.

Anyway, when the chips are down, such a scenario will only remind her of the fighter that she is. Let there be no doubt: The lady who flies like a butterfly and stings like a bee will make the best of it. Sooner or later, through her endless energy, and with the influx of frustrated NSNU electorate, she’ll break the walls and she’ll take no hostages. This one goes to you, President Yushchenko.

One way to look at her present station is to isolate her own political genes that had contributed to it.

She built her parliamentary campaign around contrasting her virtues with the vices of NSNU tycoons. So restless was her quest for premiership that it lured her into a “one vote stand” with the PRU on a gas-related vote of no confidence to the Yekhanurov Cabinet. At that point, it appeared that her loyalty to the Orange Revolution was gone with the gas.

Right from the start, she knew that the vote would have no legal effect, as the law required that the Cabinet carry on until May. She desired differentiation — a dose of publicity that would favorably set her apart from the shadow of the dominant NSNU brand. That’s where she got carried away. The ‘traitor’ effect she achieved mired her so badly that she took pains to re-Orangize herself. Despite the relative success her after-action whitewashing had with voters, the move had become just another poisoned arrow that exacerbated her ailing relations with NSNU.

Once again, the bad blood between the Orange guys, at work since the Tymoshenko Cabinet’s dismissal, codified the rules of engagement: It’s OK to dump each other. Instead of resolving their differences and reaching out for each other, the Orange Revolutionaries held each other at gunpoint, shredding that very special something they shared.

Bonnie (Tymo) and Clyde (Moro)
In the Speaker tryouts, Tymoshenko stood firmly behind Moroz, and both did their best to keep Poroshenko at bay. Both sought to relive the glory of their past — Moroz as Speaker, Tymoshenko as Premier — all of which made them a tightly knit support group bent on securing those cherished second-coming experiences. But their folie a duex similarity ends right there — once the numbers take center stage. While Tymo garnered a juicy 22.29 percent of the vote, Moro netted a meager 5.69 percent. Statistically speaking, the Socialists hungered for Speakership with a tenacity unmatched by their electoral market share.

As the coalition talks neared breakdown, Moroz, knowing that the ball was in his court, seemed to have changed his ways. tradeoffs, he inked a coalition compact with BYuT and NSNU that irrevocably entitled NSNU to the Speaker’s position and thereby lay to rest his overly ambitious claims.

Contrary to the impression he had created, no sooner had the ink dried than Moroz began openly expressing his voir dire reservations about Poroshenko and demanded his replacement. Rumors of PRU-SPU flirtations regarding the vote on Speaker leaked to the press. In response to this dangerous undercurrent, Poroshenko, the scandal scarred NSNU candidate who claims being the victim of a smear campaign, pressed the Socialists’ to honor commitments spelled out in the compact. Even Tymo, who may have silently reveled in the thought of Poro’s replacement, refused to get embroiled.

The Countdown Begins
At the opening of the Rada’s morning session on Thursday, July 6, a day that will live in infamy, Tymo exuded confidence and excitement. The femme fatale unveiled a 50-50 plan that lavished on the opposition as many as 15 committees, or half of the total number. These pockets of power covered banking and finances, corporate governance and privatization, corruption and organized crime prevention. In addition to that crème de la crème mix, the consolation package included chairmanship of the Oversight Chamber, with its enlarged capabilities, and, of course, the almighty secret ballot. And, finally, to promote goodwill and cross-partisan cooperation, Tymo proposed to swap Committee Vice Chairmanships.

She should have saved those outpourings of generosity for her grand kids. When Yanuke ordered a pullout from the rostrum, he had a completely different agenda in mind.

Launch!
After lunch break, the smell of betrayal, so pervasive in the corridors of the Verkhovna Rada, reached alarming intensity. Yosyp Vinsky, head of the SPU politburo, blew the whistle. He went public with what he said were behind-the-scenes preparations for voting into power a mutually agreed PRU-SPU Speaker. As the media munched on Vinsky’s revelations, Moroz remained tongue seated in the session room, his face an expression of cold-blooded calculus. He and his partners set in motion a chain reaction of reactionism that proved once again that causal encounters in politics happen far more often than Socialism with a human face.

The visible part came to light when a Socialist MP made a motion to nominate Oleksander Moroz for Speaker, the other nominee being Mykola Azarov of the PRU. Now fully away that this was not a drill, Petro Poroshenko assumed a battle position on the rostrum.

In an emotionally charged speech Poroshenko announced the withdrawal of his candidacy and called on Moroz to do the same. Let the Regionalists test their voting firepower with Azarov, Poroshenko thundered. Once they learned their limitations, his logic went, parties to the Orange coalition could safely retreat to the negotiation table and settle the Speaker dispute on their own. Moroz rejected this reconciliation bid, saying that the full support of his fellow Socialists gave him no reason to give up on himself. The smokescreen statement he issued hinted at two possible courses of action:

1. “Different strokes for different folks.” Socialists vote for Moroz, Regionalists vote Azarov. Both get their egos stroked, but yield nothing.

2. “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.” Socialists vote for Moroz, and so do Regionalists. Moroz becomes Speaker, Yanukovych Premier.

Nobody wanted to believe it, but the latter transaction seemed the most practical — the most likely shape of things to come. Before the vote was even passed, PRU messenger Taras Chornovil, speaking in parables, had proudly fed the breaking news to the media.

Bottom line: Moroz won unanimous consent and a standing ovation from the Regionalists. Secret ballot? Forget it. Call it electoral exhibitionism with an obsessive-compulsive component. Under the voyeur’s gaze of Big Brother-style party bosses, SPU-PRU frères d'armes cast their ballots, often showing them in full view of the cameras.

In this “Unite Ukraine” spectacle, as PRU strategists have branded it, the credits are as follows:

1. Azarov acted as a decoy. His nomination, highly praised by the Regionalists, duped the Orange guys into believing he was the real thing, which prevented them from attempting interception early in the attack.

2. Moroz starred as a stooge. His “paid” AWOL, as rumor has it, caught the rest of the team off guard. He offered his services for a good political price, and both seller and buyer got what they wanted.

Excerpts from Moroz’s File
The “Purple Heart” for distinguished service to the PRU now decorating Moroz’s chest hardly signals a new trend in his behavior. Those who have been following Moroz in telescopic detail have more to tell. Below are some memorable moments from his political star trek.

1999 As the presidential campaign gains momentum, Oleksander Moroz drops out of the supposedly anti-Kuchma alliance called the Kanev Four, after the alliance nominates former intelligence chief and PM Yevhen Marchuk for President. Marchuk, a centrist figure, went on to #5 in the first round and readily marched for Kuchma in the run off election in exchange for the National Security Council job.

Although the Kanev Four may have been a trap, Moroz’s runaway profile was forever seared in the memory of Ukrainians. Well aware of his high potential, he just would not wrap his mind around someone else. So, he opts for a lone ranger act — only to have his mission ruined by Petro Symonenko of the CPU, his present coalition partner.

Bottom line: Moroz made #3, Symonenko #2, and Kuchma #1. Both helped Kuchma’s reelection by playing into his hands alongside the 1996 Yeltsin-Zyuganov scheme.

The major egomaniac episode described above laid down a marker for further attention-seeking adventure.

2000-2001 Moroz steals the spotlight with clandestine recordings of Kuchma and his inner circle allegedly made by Mykola Melnychenko, a right-minded officer on Kuchma’s security detail. From what can be deciphered, Kuchma ‘sings’ of strongarm action against distinguished opposition journalist Heorhiy Gongadze missing since September. Gongadze confronted Kuchma on talk shows and slammed him with editorials. The sudden stream of low-fi recordings in Moroz’s possession, heavily punctuated with Kuchma’s foul language, shakes society to its core. Shortly afterwards, the beheaded body of the missing journalist is discovered in the forest near Tarashcha, Moroz’s home village. Amid street protests that continued into 2001, Kuchma denies role, saying the recordings are fabricated, and increasingly secludes himself in the Crimea, where he dates Putin.

2002 What sounds like a dialogue on the sale of the Ukrainian-made Kolchuha radar system to Saddam Hussein marks a new spike in the Kuchmagate. Following the release of this recording, Washington examines it and finds the material to be authentic. Street protests rock the Ukrainian capital with renewed vigor. With the blink of an eye, Leonid Kuchma gets grounded diplomatically by an America whose heart still bleeds for the victims of 9/11 and whose public opinion and leaders link Saddam Hussein to Osama bin Laden.

Kuchma desperately tries to disassociate himself from his pariah status — but only at his own peril. At the NATO summit in Prague in 2002, he received a lesson he’ll never forget. Despite the clear indication that his presence at the event would be unwelcome, Kuchma decides to gatecrash. To prevent the UK and US delegations from the discomfort of sharing space with the Ukrainian delegation, the protocol officers embarked on a creative approach. They switched the seating chart from English to French. Under this “French Kiss” arrangement, Ukraine remained unchanged, while the UK metamorphosed into Royaume Unis and the US into États-Unis. What a view! Kuchma suffered in silence, sealed from Blair and Bush by a linguistic cordon sanitaire.

Ironically, neither WMDs nor Kolchuhas turned up in Iraq.

Bottom line: Mystery surrounds this geopolitical X-File and Moroz’s role in it. At best, it was that of a DJ who spun the LP collection to his own benefit. At worst, it was that of an agent of influence who utilized Ukrainians as guinea pigs for the benefit of a foreign country. In fact, many experts have thoroughly debunked the underlying events as a Kremlin plot to weaken Kuchma and draw him closer. Anyway, the Kuchmagate affair cost the life of journalist, brought misery to his family, and boiled into a national drama.

2002-2003 Moroz partners with Medvedchuk on the so-called politreforma, a Constitutional amendment that would transfer the bulk of the power from the President to the PM and Parliament. Both look to it for a coping strategy in the face of the upcoming presidential election.
Undoubtedly, Medvedchuk sought to prolong the Kuchma regime by reemploying his patron as PM and installing a bicameral Pavlovian legislative. Although the bicameral concept did not withstand the opposition’s pressure, the politreforma lived on.

Moroz argued that the politreforma would facilitate Kuchma’s retirement and would provide the best safeguard against tyranny no matter who won the presidential race.

2004 After Yushchenko carries the first round of the election by a thin margin, Moroz conditions his endorsement in the run-off election on the candidate’s full commitment to the politreforma. As Ukraine verged on civil war, Yushchenko had to reaffirm this commitment to keep the hotheads in the Kuchma regime from cracking down on the Orange Revolution.

Moroz has come a long way. Throughout his career, he has established himself as a glib guy who knows what he wants and may be willing to get his goals accomplished at all costs.

Moroz and Morality: Points of Intersection
When asked whether he had any feelings of guilt to share about the recent events, Moroz skillfully surfed on the public’s dismay over the vicissitudes of Orange coalition-building. Trying to deflect torrents of criticism raining on his parade, he argued that tears his ex-partners shed were crocodile tears. According to Moroz, when the PRU and NSNU had almost clinched the deal, Tymo disrupted its consummation in the nick of time and resuscitated talks on the Orange coalition. But NSNU ballerinas, fixated on mating with bigtime PRU machos, just couldn’t stand her. So, he continued, they embarked on a strategy of sabotage aimed at derailing Tymo from the PM track. Had she taken the reigns of the Cabinet, they would have had quite a motive to contribute to her speedy failure. The fallout from her “leadership failure” would have paved the way for a PRU-NSNU coalition and would have cast BYuT and the SPU overboard.

On the one hand, Moroz’s woebegone story has its merits. The halo effect has long vacated the top brass of the Orange Revolution, especially during the last couple of months. One has little moral standing if one’s claims of injustice can be offset with attempts to push one’s neighbor off the cliff. With that in mind, what’s wrong about breaking off a negotiation if one no longer finds his partners trustworthy? What’s wrong about selling to the highest bidder? Nothing. Unless, on the other hand, you agreed to provide advance notice of your decision and unless you sell what’s not yours to sell. The farmers and smalltown intelligentsia in Central Ukraine, who entrusted Mr. Moroz with their votes have been done a disservice. Had they (his electoral base) known that Moroz would sell them down the river, most of them would have run him out of town in the first place.

Having volunteered himself as the surrogate mother to the predominantly capitalist coalition, Moroz drew catcalls from European Socialists like Jan Marinus Wiersma, Socialist Group Vice-President in charge of EU enlargement issues. It is against this background that Mr. Moroz takes his chances with domestic audiences. He waxes eloquent in an effort to sell the Ukrainian people on the idea of himself as a solution seller/icebreaker, a nice guy who did a job for which he will receive credit only with the passage of time.

However, recent polls and call-in shows, as well as the screenfuls of hate mail he gets on forums, suggest that many people, his voters included, think otherwise. In their eyes, Moroz threw himself into the soul seller/promise breaker category.

To wield something of a scandal silencer and to project positive emphasis, PRU-SPU-CPU strategists have couched the coalition in missionary overtones. They christened their brainchild the “anti-crisis coalition.” For many unsuspecting Ukrainians, that brand name still defies logic: The economy has expanded at the annual rate of 5 percent, and incomes have risen 20 percent. Based on these field reports, it is safe to conclude that the RegiSociCommunists are in the business of creating crises where there are none. Put another way, they have applied for a “Ghostbuster” role in the theater of public opinion.

Several script discrepancies that have emerged in the postnatal period of “anticrisis coalition” building may dash cold water on the integrity of its parents. Whereas Moroz has described his decision in spur-of-the-moment terms, his colleagues have supplied a different picture. The dark side of Moroz has repeatedly confessed that it was the result of premeditated activity.

Of course, the dog-eat-dog atmosphere of the negotiations in no small part had shaped Moroz’s AWOL. But the final choice was his to make, and his disappearing act in the Bermuda triangle of the Orange Revolution may become the lethal flashback that will send the Socialists into oblivion in the next election. He may pull his hair out in the name of “uniting Ukraine,” trying to camouflage his greed, but that sort of ritual will hardly divert his parish from trying to divine where morality ends and Socialism begins.


Trading the Lost Marbles of the Revolution for the Hot Coals of Cohabitation
President Yushchenko has his own share of hair-pulling to do. He and his henchmen spent months unable to come to grips with losing to BYuT.

The agonizing downhill slide Yushchenko’s ratings had taken kept him flip-flopping from Orange to Blue and back. Instead of feeding the nation with Saturday night pop corn addresses, he should have assumed a hands-on moderator role. He should have rolled up his sleeves and put the Orange coalition to work. Politically, nobody was home upstairs.

Downstairs Ukraine witnessed Tom & Jerry-style turf wars, beggar-thy-neighbor negotiations, on-again, off-again subscription to the proportionality principle in dividing Cabinet seats. The Orange guys could well contribute their learn-the-hard-way findings to a case study titled “The Dos and Donts of Team Play.”

As they juggled their overblown egos, little did they know what was coming to them. Not for a moment did the Blue guys waving their laundry list of complaints stop scheming their way into power.

Ukraine gave the Orange guys another chance, and all they did was make their leadership the laughingstock of nations. First, they disgraced themselves with a prolonged power struggle over Cabinet seats, quite an ugly sight to see. Second, they fell victim to backstabbing, which, too, ate into the stock value of the Orange Revolution.

And now BYuT lionhearts are rallying for repeat elections, and NSNU lizards are scanning the “anticrisis” pyramid for niches. Tymo should entertain no illusions about her repeat elections initiative. She should be fully aware that the sword swallowing act she has announced, even if enforceable, may be lost on a society caught in the midst of the vacation season. Over the last months, the Orange audience has grown weary of watching its heroes’ silly games in a show called “How to Lose a Government in 10 Ways.” Whether she denies it or not, the pendulum of public opinion has slightly swung in favor of the Blue guys. In light of this extreme exhaustion, should a rerun be made anytime soon, it may be overtax the Orange audience’s interest in democracy as a full time job and adversely affect turnout.

Starting July 25, Yushchenko has the authority to disband Parliament if the Cabinet continues vacant. However, due to waning support for his party, he will most likely choose not to exercise that option. Repeat elections will result in greater failure for NSNU, or so the mainstream argument goes.

That’s why oppositionphobic attacks have overwhelmed NSNU to the point of nonsense. The plausible excuse behind NSNU’s cohabitation with the PRU is that it’s impossible to have a President who’s opposed by Parliament and the Cabinet. Maybe Yushchenko should seek counseling from Clinton, who dealt with a Republican Congress in 1994-95, or from Chirac, who endured Socialist PM Jospin in 1997-2002.

Certainly, Yanuke craves a more solid footing for his throne, which would stem from having NSNU on board. At the same time, Operation Reg Roulette has severely reduced NSNU’s bargaining power. While in the preop phase the formula “Yanukovych Speaker, Yekhanurov PM” supplied the common ground for negotiation, in the postop phase the PRU will yield no ground, except for maybe asking the CPU to leave. Yet, however desirable NSNU’s presence may be, it is hardly critical. This means that NSNU’s position no longer counts all that much. The tables have turned: Beggars can’t be choosers, and Yanukovych is nonnegotiable. One of the carrots planted to induce NSNU to agree propounds that the “anticrisis” coalition can be rebranded as the “coalition of national unity.”

Yushy and Tymo have little room for conventional maneuver and thus have applied the good cop/bad cop tactics themselves. In a manner consistent with their situations and capabilities — and probably in the hope of extracting some seats on first-class committees — both have issued disbandment threats.

The Regs, in turn, gave Yushchenko until early August to finalize the Yanukovych nomination. In case their chief does not get pampered, the Regs have promised to respond in kind, unleashing the wrath of Donbas on the corrupt city of Kyiv and impeaching President Yushchenko. On closer observation, the moral stature of their crusade bogs down in the mechanics of impeachment. Mustering the 300 votes required to overcome the presidential veto cannot be done without exporting talent from NSNU and BYuT. Experts believe that this procedure would involve financial stimulation. In fact, there’s a body language video suggesting that the cash-on-the barrel approach to voting may not be science fiction, after all.

Anyway, escalation continues. As of Wednesday, July 26, Yushchenko remains in his meditation pagoda, praying for divine intervention. Yanukovych is spitting peace-and-harmony sound bites on the public while breathing fire on the President, awaiting nomination for PM. His magi have stalked Yushchenko, and Speaker Moroz has courteously called the President on the carpet.
Time is running out on the President. Unless he decides to use the weapon of last resort, he cannot stonewall the PM nomination indefinitely. Besides, he needs the Rada’s cooperation in appointing Justices to the Constitutional Court’s, whose opinion he is determined to seek in order to play down the politreforma.

In the western Ukrainian city of Rivne, two maverick Socialists, including the brother of Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, burned their member cards in protest to Moroz’s adventurism. Minister Lutsenko himself has revoked membership in the Socialist Party.

Communist leader Petro Symonenko flew to Moscow for a hush-hush tryst with Putin.

Yanukovych supporters broke camp near the Rada. Regionalist MP Oleh Kalashnikov, tasked with coordinating camp activities, lashed out at reporters filming a rally and seized the video. Slapped with a scandal at a time when its image should have radiated immaculacy, the PRU had Mr. Kalashnikov apologize. Somehow, the apology Mr. Kalashnikov squeezed out of himself sounded like a mock one. Instead of confessing to having a short fuse and a poor grasp of democracy, he actually blamed the journalists for dong their job in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

The flavor of his reconciliation statement only made the scandal spiral upwards. Finally, Yanukovych went out of his way to expel the berserker from the PRU roster. Relax, deontologists. He did this for more than purity’s sake. He did this for the purpose of publicizing his dazzling “love affair” with the freedom of press. How else could a fine liberal like him ward off skepticism from all those pervs who dare deem otherwise?

And who says that clemency should elude a strong leader’s character? No way! So, the expulsion was a mock one too: There’s hardly a law on the books that says Kalashnikov should be out of his job as a result of expulsion from the PRU.

Paradoxically, the new-fashioned coalition has lumped together Ukraine’s richest man and the champions of the proletariat. Observers are wondering how exactly Yanukovych Socialists and Communists are going to square the slashing of taxes with the promise of a robust welfare state. Those poor folks who voted for a bright future under the never-setting sun of Marxism-Leninism should take a hike. Except for ultraviolet exposure — that’s what you get when you mix blue and red — they won’t even find trace amounts of that future.

Attention fun lovers! The soon-to-be-released “Banana Republic” by Nouveaux Riches feat. Commie Oldies (remix) can best be enjoyed with vodka and pot.

In Memory of the Orange Revolution
Maidan, now occupied by BYuT and Pora tents, is but a shadow of its former self. In the cold winter of 2004 people flocked to it with their hearts warm. In the hot summer of 2006, many of those same people pass it by with their cold hearts. It takes time to put one’s expectations out of the refrigerator again.

Repeat elections can be a risky business. But this is not the worst course of action for the President to take, provided (1) enough time has elapsed for people to recharge their batteries and (2) BYuT and NSNU become one. Anyway, as long as Yushchenko keeps all options open, spoilers will be hard to come by.

More likely than not, by allying himself with Yanukovych, Yushchenko will hit the last nail in his political coffin, rather than achieve a healthy cohabitation.

For Yushchenko and, to a lesser degree, for Tymoshenko, the Orange Revolution has evolved into an inconvenient term, almost a taboo. Not only do they refer to it with detachment but they also do this on a declining basis, similar to the Pavlovian procedure of extinguishment. One never speaks about revolution in the house of the hanged.

Life goes on. A country standing at the crossroads needs no narcoleptic leaders. Somebody has to dust off the Ukrainian Dream, and that somebody is you. Or, if you’re too tired, simply hold your breath.