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Monday, January 18, 2010

98.61% Counted: Yanukovych, 35.3%; Tymoshenko, 25.05%

Will the gap shrink to her over-hyped single digits?



John Kalitka said...

That map is very interesting, Taras. Excuse the naive question, but what explains Yano's appeal in Zakarpatska Oblast?

Taras said...

Zakarpattya is a special region, with lots of Kuchma-era assets: Shufrych, Rizak, Ratushnyak, et al.

Zakarpattya brings together several minorities: Rusyns, Hungarians, Romanians, Gypsies and Slovaks.

Some rayons (counties) don’t have Ukrainian schools and people don’t speak Ukrainian.

Overall, they have a modest separatist/irredentist sentiment there, fueled by the Kremlin and Yanukovych’s decentralization platform.

Coupled with the Oranges’ failure and fragmentation, all of the above has resulted in Yanukovych gaining a slight lead over Tymoshenko there.

In 2004, Zakarpattya went for Yushchenko, as opposed to Yanukovych:

1st round: 43.61% vs. 37.75%
2nd round: 55.00% vs. 40.07%
Rerun: 67.45% vs. 27.58%