Share |

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Even Without Shyrka, We Still Have Zasyadka

What did I miss? Here’s a recap of all major events that escaped my blog while I was out of town:

No shyrka, at least not yet. The ‘NUNS on the Run’ turned themselves in after meeting with President Yushchenko, or so it seems. In other words, they acceded to the Orange Coalition agreement. Let’s see what happens next week, when it comes to the Speaker vote.

Zasyadka redux. There was another mine accident on Saturday. 44 miners were hospitalized, two of them in critical condition. No fatalities, so far. Vice Premier Andriy Klyuev, a miner early in his career, vowed to close the most dangerous area of the mine. (As though the 101-person death toll from the accident two weeks ago wasn’t enough ground.)

Coalition bribery caught on candid camera? On Friday, BYuT went public with cell phone videos of what it claims are attempts by MP Volodymyr Sivkovych, PRU, and former BYuT member Mykhailo Brodsky to bribe Orange MPs into sabotaging the Orange Coalition. MP Sivkovych, a former KGB operative, refuted the allegation and called the videos an invasion of privacy, arguing that the conversation had nothing to do with bribery. He also filed a complaint with the Office of the Prosecutor-General.

Natural gas prices to rise a little more, payable in roubles. Gazprom talks about revising next year’s anticipated price of $160 per 1,000 cubic meters to as high as $190, citing accelerating price deals with Turkmenistan. The Russian gas monopoly also insists on switching the trading from dollars to roubles. And by the way, Russia holds parliamentary elections today.

Lytvyn strategist shot dead. Oleh Sheremet, the man who liaised with a team of American public relations consultants in the Lytvyn Bloc campaign, was murdered on Friday night. Sheremet also ran a consultancy that dealt with lucrative land issues in Boryspil rayon (county) neighboring Kyiv to the east.

The upcoming week, a litmus test for the Orange Coalition, is going to be packed with events.



Anonymous said...

Well, if the Orange Coalition can last long enough, it is possible the PoR will break in two and maybe a more stable coalition that will still be significantly reformed-oriented will be created.

That seems to be Berezekovsky's pov... Akhmetov et al is going to make a break from Yanukovich and the Sovoks.

Taras said...

We still have to get the Orange Coalition going. As of today, it only exists on paper, its viability and longevity unpredictable indeed.

Why should a guy who owes his fortune to the post-Sovok laissez-unfair economics change camps or kill the goose that lays the golden eggs? At least why should he do that until the last kopeck of the Soviet-built pie gets sliced? (Actually, shyrka would perfectly suit that purpose.)

IMHO, NUNS look far more fragile than the PRU. Well, time will tell.

Anonymous said...

It makes perfect sense to kill the goose that lays golden eggs once you've pumped her for more than enough golden eggs. It cuts down on your potential competition and then you can be a reformer and acheive stability, expanded outside opportunities and a reasonable compounded return on your considerable wealth.

There's a lifecycle effect...


Taras said...

I hate the word stability when applied to my country. Stability is when my fellow Ukrainians die. Stability is slavery. Do you want that kind of stability for your country?

You should know that there are a couple of golden eggs left: Ukrtelekom, Odessa Port, and a few others. So, my guess is, the forces of creative destruction will be lying supine until the last egg ends up on someone’s table, dirt cheap. Would that kind of deal work for your country?

I’m not comfortable being a guinea pig in any kind of theory.

Anonymous said...

Golden eggs: let's see land (and lots of it!, uranium (it is est. that Ukraine is 6th in the world when it comes to deposits), energy: gas, electric, etc. (inc. mines, transport systems, nuclear reactors), privatizing the Gazprom transport system, even hotels are still under the state treasury, lots for the potential auction block and the potential for new businesses (no market saturation/glut here)everything is wide open from wiring for high speed Internet, to building/renovating roads, airports, hospitals, old age homes, etc. Enough potential construction jobs for all and more. The current stock of billionaires and millionaires are just a taste of the profits that could be made in bringing up the country up to European standards. Which is why Ukrainian companies are able to get loans for business growth from European banks - run the numbers and if the company stays in business: guaranteed profits.

And also the country has an educated hardworking workforce even with a 3 milliion drop in population from 2001 to 2007. Over 46 million people in total.

Every single aspect in all industries, service industries have potential for exponential growth.

And that is why the bitter fight over who is in and who is out of power has waged, will continue to wage, etc.

Sorry for the length of the comment but the golden eggs still in the basket or unhatched is absolutely potentially huge!


Taras said...

That’s right, Luida. There are too many golden eggs left to be grabitized. Who needs reform when all you have to do is reach into the basket?

Undoubtedly, the last round of grabitization will zero in on land, Ukraine’s biggest golden egg. Compared to that asset, Ukrtelekom and Odessa Port are a bunch of toys.