MIB Unsettled by NSC Agenda

Talk about crisis management. It’s amazing how insecure the Anticrisis Coalition, aka the “Men in Blue,” can be when it comes to national security.

The recent NSC meeting offers plenty of insight.

Discussing the mess in the housing and utilities sector was one thing the “Men in Blue,” Yanukovych and Moroz, found too hard for their palate.

Instead of sharing their expertise on an issue that affects the daily lives of an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians living from paycheck to paycheck, Yanukovych and Moroz lodged a note of protest. According to one account, they even walked out of the meeting.

Similar to cats who mark their territory, they glaringly informed the audience that the handling of this issue is the sole prerogative of the Cabinet and demanded that it be from the agenda

Since blue is the official color of the PRU, what made them feel so blue psychologically? What pissed them off?

Why would Yanukovych, the champion of BLT (“Better Living Today”), be so possessive about the lines of authority and yet so inexpressive about his betterment endeavors?

Why would Moroz, the devout Socialist who co-starred in the summer blockbuster “How Goodfellas Got Their Groove Back,” make such a big fuss about talking social security?

Undoubtedly, it's the affiliation of the newly appointed NSC head Vitaliy Haiduk that adds intrigue to the affair. Known as a pragmatic nationalist and, what’s important, as ISD’s man, Haiduk poses a counterweight to archrival SCM, which smells of a turf war of sorts.

However, back to the bread and butter business, in Kyiv alone utility bills have climbed more than threefold, pending finalization by the Justice Ministry. (Attention fans of Mayor Chernovetsky, aka the “King of Handouts!” It’s payback time.)

Of course, Russia smiles on us all, but not all of us can smile back Unlike the oligarchs, who will certainly pull through, having billions of dollars stashed in offshore accounts, and unlike the burgeoning middle class, whose living standards will not suffer much, the urban intelligentsia and working class may fare differently.

What happens if half the country stops paying bills it simply can’t afford? That’s what the “Men in Blue, or better yet “Children of the Coal,” should think about, instead of throwing bureaucratic tantrums.

Just what did they expect national security to be about — poker, or perhaps Monopoly?

No Such Thing as "Holodomor," Moscow Says

It means just that. On the eve of the commemoration of the Holodomor, the 1932-33 man-made famine that killed an estimated 6 to 10 million Ukrainians and is one the greatest yet only recently publicized genocides of the 20th century, the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry offered its condolences, but no confessions.

The tragic famine in Ukraine, Moscow said, was the result of bad policy and crop failure that affected areas beyond Ukraine. Therefore, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that Ukraine was singled out on ethnic grounds.

Unfortunately, the Russian diplomats forgot to submit weather reports that would support crop failure theory. Also, they chose not to go into great detail as to exact ethnic distribution patterns. (What was the famine’s ethnic breakdown, anyway?)

Nor did they give much voice to the role of the Red Army, which cordoned off Ukraine’s famine-stricken areas to prevent mass migration in search of food supplies needed to survive. (Was it a routine military exercise?)

Too bad Uncle Joe, who cut his teeth as People’s Commissar of Nationalities Affairs, cannot be reached for comments. What is certain, though, is that the Russian Federation has been recognized by the international community as the successor state to the Soviet Union. (What percentage of its monthly oil revenue would go to compensate the victims, if Russia admitted guilt?)

Eager to play mindgames of its own, the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry called the progress made by Russia laudatory. Talking the matter over with the Russians has not been a total waste of effort, Kyiv said, adding that the "UX-files" warrant further study by both countries.

Demographers believe that had it not been for Stalin’s Holodomor and repressions, Ukraine would have been a nation of some 100,000,000 people.

Ukraine to Become WTO Member in February?

While Yushchenko insists on the December deadline, analysts point to February as a more realistic time of accession.

Leery of the Democrats, the Russians are burning rubber. That’s why we have to make sure we get there first.

Hopefully, we will not see a repeat of yesteryear’s botched entry attempt.

The Return of the Faithful Exiled

They’re back. They’re hungry. And they’re not Orange.

If you ever watched this funny movie, you get the idea. Somewhere on this planet a spillover situation must have occurred, involving chemical agents whose properties the military would prefer not to talk about.

It’s responsible for triggering what appears to be the first wave of repatriation of high-profile crime suspects to Ukrainian soil.

Facing persecution from the Yushchenko regime, these poor people found asylum on both sides of the Iron Curtain. Thanks to the Anticrisis Coalition, the long-awaited democratization took place, which set the ground for their safe return.

Now that the venerable Shcherban is in da house, who’s next? Bakai? Bilokon? Zasukha? Bodelan? Welcome back, gentlemen.

Shcherban’s reunion with Ukraine came amid mass outbursts of joy, as residents of Sumy Oblast rallied for their beloved Governor (2002-2005). If he chooses to pay a visit to that little land he fled in pain, he certainly should expect being smothered with hugs and kisses.

The American lawyers he brought with him raised absolutely no suspicions when they made statements to the effect that their client’s middle name is morality, it its purest form. Good work. We the good-natured, hardworking people of Ukraine trust your every word. Your dedication has inspired us to be more accepting of our leaders. We cleansed our eyes of prejudice and our souls of selfishness. We rediscovered our true values. That way we can stay closer to the moral legacy of our founding fathers Kravchuk and Kuchma.

Not only do we know Mr. Shcherban as an entrepreneur par excellence — the man who is on good terms with the legends of Corporate Ukraine, one of which kindly posted bail for him — but we also know him as the pillar of the community.

It hurts to think of what an enormous opportunity GE and Boeing missed when neither chose to do the same for Kenneth Lay and Jack Abramoff. What kind of social responsibility do they believe in? Haven’t they ever heard of the presumption of innocence?

Perhaps the time is ripe — and the Russian Orthodox Church would certainly approve — for St. Shcherban’s Cathedral to be erected on the hills overlooking the Dnipro. Maryinsky Park, next to the Cabinet’s building, would be fine. It would serve as a beacon of renewed hope for the faithful exiled and the falsely accused.

O come home all ye faithful joyful and triumphant, and praise the Proffessor.

NSNU Convention Ends; Lyubi Druzi Diluted, Not Defrocked

They did it? No, they didn’t. Not much progress was been made in reinventing the party that once had symbolized progress itself. Instead of going to the core, NSNU let itself be satisfied with cosmetic changes.

Although far from straight talk, the atmosphere at the Saturday NSNU Convention was devoid of grandiloquence. Perhaps the realization that the NSNU needs help is starting to sunk in.

But that subtle mood change didn’t help much. During the three-week recess, the lyubi druzi must have pulled quite a few strings to secure their survival.

Their polished plea for mercy — augmented with ominous references to outside forces willing to drive a wedge between the two wings of NSNU (reform and counter-reform, presumably) — kept them from being cast overboard.

It’s funny how these number crunchers, who viewed the Orange Revolution and the Anticrisis Coalition as investment projects, can weather any storm.

Tymoshenko — one of the sharpest-witted politicians and definitely one with the balls — coined the lyubi druzi term when she made a mockery of Yushchenko’s vocabulary. Soon, it became the killer brand that made NSNU bleed profusely in the March parliamentary election, and even more so during NSNU’s summer fling with the enemies of the Orange Revolution.

No matter how hard we crave their disempowerment, the lyubi druzi always have a health pack.

Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko attended the Convention as a guest. (Even though BYuT has painted him as a tame tiger — tethered to the PRU — “Robocop” drew “friendly fire” after the event. Yanukovych strongly advised Lutsenko to make a choice between holding the office and maintaining a political profile. Keeping the “untouchables” in line poses quite an ego challenge for a micromanager like Yanukovych.)

At the Convention, Lutsenko unveiled his vision. The man reportedly wooed by Bezsmertny for the NSNU chairman position called for disaggregating NSNU and realigning it with the grassroots support base. As a way to deal with the successor problem, Lutsenko introduced the concept of primaries, something of a blood curdling chimera for the lyubi druzi. However, he neither identified himself with the Democrat nor with the Republican platform.

On hearing this, the lyubi druzi refused to suffer in silence. Petro Poroshenko, the face of the brand, said he couldn’t stomach the word primaries because of its foreign-ness. He also came up with the idea of annulling the Politreforma, as the elixir of NSNU’s fitness.

Well, all things being equal, that would be the wrong place to start. Even if the anti-Politreforma movement somehow galvanizes NSNU, as the lyubi druzi hope, it risks becoming an idée fixe that will eclipse the real problems that need to be confronted. These problems come from within; the Politreforma per se has nothing to do with them. Indirectly, though, it stands a good chance of catalyzing the disintegration of NSNU, in the event the real issues remain untackled.
With no one to fill the ideological vacuum and to repair the badly broken navigation system, the inertia and impotence of the lyubi druzi will consign their special interests club to the dustbin of history.

If that’s not the hotel of their choice, Snoozers should stop to think about their current standing. The truth is, excommunicated from the nipples of the government and despised by the grassroots supporters it has lost, NSNU is in the middle of nowhere. The end of NSNU as we knew it, when we marched with it in 2004, has eluded no one.

Katerynchuk quit. Of course, he didn’t buy the lyubi druzi’s problem externalization argument. Nor did he succeed in pushing the envelope at the convention. His recovery recipe: Put ideas first, not interests. He that he’s through with NSNU, he has a free hand in pushing his creative destruction initiatives

The Council added 29 new members. However, the jury is out on the question of whether this body of 214-member body will better represent local chapters or whether it will simply dilute responsibility.

The Convention continued well into the evening, and delegates who had same-day return tickets had to leave. Before the Convention drew to a close, a valedictory vote of “unsatisfactory” performance was passed, a don’t-give-up-on-us message to voters.

NSNU has a lot of awareness-raising to do before it lets someone special breathe new life into it.

Until then, it remains a rubber stamp for Yushchenko’s vainglorious fantasies, a leaderless bureaucratic backwater — half-dead, half-alive.

PRUyal Pageant Blemished by Senior Seeking “Better Living Today”

I see skies of blue..... clouds of white
Bright blessed days....dark sacred nights
And I think to myself .....what a wonderful world.
Louis Armstrong “What a Wonderful World”

Not all went according to plan at a gala event marking the 100th Day of the Anticrisis Coalition. As the glitterati took turns in mounting the rostrum, one could probably hear the hissing sound of static electricity that accompanied this ego-stroking parade.

Resting on the laurels of fame was Premier Victor Yanukovych, the “Queen of the Night.”

Had he developed as much — or as little — appreciation of Western culture as Kim Il Sung or Saddam Hussein had, that night we would have heard him humming that famous Louis Armstrong song.

The speech he delivered glorified the many achievements of his Cabinet, such as getting a good deal from Russia on natural gas supplies for FY 2007 and lessening the pain at the pump by having fuel traders agree to voluntary price cuts. (He failed to mention that the former comes at a certain geopolitical price, and that the latter perfectly corresponds with the seasonal slowdown in world demand for oil.)

One of the exit lines he threw at the audience was “work is being done to expand the coalition.” (Well, if we heed the latest news, NSNU has once again settled its orientation in favor of an opposition role. Don’t be a menace to NSNU while drinking your juice in the hood.)

Rather than allowing closer contact with his voters, these days Yanukovych takes far more interest in achieving greater control over enterprises in which the government has a majority stake — through the practice of populating their management with his associates.

In fact, the miracle man who promised us BLT (“Better Living Today”) has now updated his vocabulary with words like populism and squandermania.

Just when he was done with impressing the hell out of the audience and was about to retreat from the rostrum, the moment of truth came.

Straight out of the blue, an unidentified senior citizen came flying down the aisles like a fighter jet, repeatedly calling Yanukovych by name, in a squeaky voice full of distress. Not even a Cabinet “janitor” like Anatoliy Tolstoukhov could prevent him from storming the stage, where he hoped to make physical contact with his idol.

But guess what? The idol took immediate evasive action and fell back to base, at full speed, in a tsarlike manner. His reaction to the man he left behind? Zero.

No one knows exactly how that passionate elderly man had landed on the invitation list, in the first place. But, according to the media, he meant Yanukovych no harm and merely intended to hand him a grievance letter. Presumably a Yanukovych supporter, he had a problem that he believed Yanukovych could solve. Well, it wasn’t his day. By the time his expeditionary tactics had propelled him on stage, no one was there for him, except for the security detail. So much for BLT.

This episode echoes Jimmy Carter’s infamous swamp rabbit encounter.

Yet, comparatively speaking, Carter comes across as more of a well educated idealist than an undereducated elitist, a role more suited for Yanukovych.

So, at the risk of being accused of overstating the case, the question would be: Does the man who enjoys the highest approval rating in Ukraine derive it from respect for the little man? Telltale episodes like this suggest that even America’s highest paid image makers cannot erase some deeply-seated power distance values that our dignitaries have to live with.

What’s in It for Ukraine?

The U.S. midterm elections have returned results that President Yushchenko can relate to. In this spiritual exercise, he should ask himself a couple of questions.

Question 1: Does Yushchenko still believe that being opposed by Parliament, by its own nature, contradicts the founding the principles of government?

As a Reagan White House intern, First Lady Kateryna Yushchenko probably never kept her husband in the dark about this not being true. That dealing with hostile legislatures is normal practice for Western leaders demands no further explanation. Needless to say, the piece of evidence America has just provided us with casts the local “lyubi druzi” school of thought in a less intellectually appealing light. It was those oppositionphobic gentlemen who posed as maids of honor to Yushchenko, their lucky star, whose marriage by arrangement to Yanukovych would have multiplied their fortunes.

Question 2: Does Yushchenko expect Bush to nurse his own Universal of National Unity?

When Yushchenko — obsessed with justifying his tango with “bandits” and “vote riggers,” as he once had gently termed them — came up with that political prenup of his, the only person he fooled was himself. And that summer coalition fling cost him dearly, by putting him in cahoots with individuals his voters had revolted against in the thing called the Orange Revolution. As the NSNU Convention reopens this Saturday, the patient is a bureaucratic mammoth debilitated with the special interest contagion, severely disconnected from its grassroots support group, stuck in single-digit territory. NSNU is a four-letter word, period.

No sooner had the Democrats uncorked their champagne than Moscow pocketed its pride and rushed to sign a bilateral protocol with the U.S., on concern that, with Dems taking both the House and the Senate, it may be grounded in the WTO limbo for a long time.

That explains why Moroz has been working against the clock on WTO-related legislation while steering clear of the NATO issue. The accounting formula behind the $130 price tag seems to be written on the walls: “NATO, for this you’ve paid us; WTO, for that you haven’t.”

The D-Day hardly spells a Moscow-centric U-turn on the Hill with regard to Ukraine. In fact, friends of Ukraine can even be found among the surviving Republicans like Richard Lugar, John McCain, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
What it does spell is bad times for the bad guys.

By the way, there’s a ruling party in Ukraine that, behaviorally, has established itself as a much uglier version of everything that’s wrong with the GOP. For reasons outlined above, that party should watch itself very carefully. Otherwise, its day of reckoning, too, will come.

It’s Not the Economy, Stupid!

Obviously, the Goldilocks economy is faring much better than the GOP. Dubya has finally got his comeuppance. It took a whole D-Day — the Democrats’ Day — to smoke Rummy out of the Pentagon.

After an almost bloodless takeover of Iraq in 2003 had seemingly opened 1001 opportunities for making that woebegone country into an oasis of democracy, the Bush administration let them slip away one by one.

Having seriously misread one of the world’s oldest nations, not to mention its own, the Bush administration did very little to set the record straight.

As time passed by, one could hear the U.S. casualty clock ticking ever more loudly. Punctuated with gory, internet downloadable beheadings of Western contractors, not to mention the untold Iraqis killed by mistake, the clock went on and on, slowly sinking the Bush administration into a geopolitical quagmire beyond the resuscitative power of Kerry’s sense of humor.

The recent gains made by Reps turned out not to be a case of too little to little, for a scandal scarred party unable to heal itself.

Good news for Saddam: He may now occupy his well-deserved seat on death row secure in the knowledge that, in a way, he has settled the score. The unfound stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction have finally made impact on his enemies, becoming weapons of mass defrockment.

The sea change in the U.S. legislature offers yet another perspective on the pendulum of public opinion. Power corrupts; absolute power corrupt absolutely. With that in mind, the Democrats should do their best to keep the pendulum from leaving their side. And that means avoiding mistakes their predecessors made.

Shcherban Comes Home to Party, Not to Roost

A few hours after landing in Boryspil Airport, Volodymyr Shcherban found himself not as uncomfortable as many had predicted.

In fact, royal treatment has followed him wherever he went. Arrested in Florida last year on charges of extortion and abuse of authority, he soon had managed to walk out on a $2 m bail.

Interestingly enough, in 2002, Shcherban had run for the Rada on the NSNU ticket, which he swiftly deserted once elected an MP. That same year Kuchma appointed him as Governor of the Oblast of Sumy. It was there that he is suspected of having suppressed the summer 2004 student sit-ins and the local opposition’s march on Kyiv.

By now it’s crystal clear that Lutsenko’s much-ballyhooed “cold reception” turned out to be a warm welcome, as far as the prowess of the PRU’s event planning department is concerned.

Being convoyed to the Office of Prosecutor General for a cup of coffee must have been the only uneasy part. Thereafter, friends of Mr. Shcherban took command. Representatives of the people of Ukraine on the side of the PRU vouched for their protégé and let the entire nation know that Mr. Shcherban is not alone in his struggle.

Bingo! Now that Mr. Shcherban drew a lungful of fresh air on a Saturday night, we could say “The people of Ukraine v Volodymyr Shcherban” is off to a good start — the "good ole" start, to be precise.

To some observers, this scenario may remind of “Die Hard 2.” Remember General Esperanza, the bad guy who had things fixed up, thanks to his robust ground support team? Unfortunately, Ukraine has no McClane to rely on.

In a post-arrival interview, Mr. Shcherban pleaded not guilty to the long list of charges levied against him, which he termed as fabricated and reprisal-driven. Poor boy, he fled his beloved country fearing for his life. Specifically, he mentioned the prospect of being hanged on Maidan. (May he pray for Saddam, whose chances of martyrdom via hanging are far greater than his own.)

And as for Mr. Shcherban, his end-of-life ideation can only be categorized as misplaced, given the fact that nobody met death on Maidan, except for a man from western Ukraine whose heart stopped beating on the eve of the Dec. 26 High Court-mandated runoff.

If President Yushchenko still has an itch for his 2004 sales pitch “Бандити сидітимуть в тюрмах,” he should try Shcherban. Well, whether he does or not, few believe that justice will be served. It’s safe to assume that Shcherban’s chances of getting locked up are close to nil.

Now listen to this: Speaking on Channel 5, Shcherban said he remains hopeful that his PRU white knights will put him back on the political track.

High-profile criminals are so hard to find these days. Whenever the cops claim they found one, next thing we know there’s not a shred of evidence to support a case. It's happened before. It may happen again. God bless Ukraine, my home, sweet, home.

WTOverdrive: Why the Sudden Speedup?

Since Moroz got infected with the WTO virus, the Rada has chain-passed a whopping seven WTO-related bills, albeit in the first reading. That narrows the prerequisite down to fourteen.

What accounts for the unexpected resurgence in the passage of WTO legislation? Analysts attribute the cabin fever to an eagerness to realize first-mover advantages. When push comes to shove, the anticrisis coalition's love for the Russian ruble probably outranks its love for Russia itself.

Why not jam Russia’s fingers in the doorway for a handsome profit? Some sources indicate that once Ukraine plants the flag, the temptation to press Russia for opening its pipe and oil field exploration markets would be impossible to overcome.

The WTO resurrection in the Ukrainian Parliament, if sustained, raises the possibility that the geopolitical bribe buried into the $130 price tag may cover non-membership in NATO, but not in the WTO.

For crying out loud, will somebody grab the phone and call the FSB hotline? The capitalist fatherland is in danger!

Yushchenko Untouchables Called on Carpet, NSNU at Crossroads

Surprisingly, the deNSNUization of the Yanukovych Cabinet did not stop with the eviction of NSNU rank and file ministers. The trio of ministers directly appointed by the President, made coalition-exempt by the Constitution, has also been challenged by the anticrisis coalition.

Each has received an invitation to appear before the Rada. However, at the end of the day, the Rada may lack the Constitutional clout to rid fire these ministers.
These worrisome developments come within days of the NSNU Convention’s reawakening from its three-week slumber.

Finding a turnaround-minded successor to Roman Bezsmertny remains on top of the agenda for a party trading at all-time lows. The pilot idea of co-opting Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a brainy outsider well-connected in both pre- and post-Orange worlds, has been met with stiff resistance from the lyubi druzi HR department.

Whatever course of action Yu chooses to pursue (e.g. derailing the Politreforma, seeking repeat parliamentary elections, etc) he is going out on a limb.
Not until a swift and serious overhaul effort reaches out to every facet of NSNU will that political vehicle ever get him anywhere other than his political deathbed. Katerynchuk, the only credible figure, had better get his act together. Debureaucratize or die.

Quorum Quake Averted
Yu Takes a Stand for Minority Stockholders

Equipped with an all-seeing eye, Bankova has embarked on a countrywide minesweeping mission.

Recently, President Yushchenko has vetoed a freshly-minted corporate governance bill that lowered the stockholder quorum requirement from 60 to 50 percent plus 1 share. Few independent analysts would disagree that the vetoed bill cut corners on the rights of minority stockholders, leaving them powerless in the corporate decision making process.

Undoubtedly, such an extreme regulatory zigzag would have hurt Ukraine’s investment outlook. Therefore, for his rescuer role, Yu deserves a thank-you note from the investment community.

Where did this abortive initiative originate? Analysts point to the corporate warlords of the anticrisis coalition. These they believe may be a little too anxious to reslice the equity pie in their favor.

At the very least, the intervention Yushchenko undertook has made him the personal hero of Pryvat’s Ihor Kolomoisky, one of the richest men in Ukraine, who allegedly holds a minority stake in the UkrNafta oil company, with the controlling stake being held by the government. The quorum quake engineered by the anticrisis coalition could have resulted in the ouster of Pryvat-friendly UkrNafta CEO Ihor Palytsya.

In light of the Cabinet’s crackdown on grain exports, the calculated risk taken by the anticrisis crowd has significantly added to the outrage already present in the investment community.

Up close and personal, the Yanukovych gov't has become a synonym for the comeback of unbridled vested interests to Ukrainian institutions, unmatched by the lyubi druzi experience.

One doesn’t have to go too far to reach that conclusion. Take the barebones 2007 budget proposal. That’s the gist of Yanukovych's BLT formula. (“Better Living Today”)

Lower taxes in 2007, maybe? Uh, forget about it too. Regionomics rules!
Ukrainian courts, overloaded as they are with takeover litigation, merit a separate discussion.

The Battle of Kyivstar has reinforced their reputation as warring fiefdoms that sell their services to the highest bidder. As long as Ukrainians of all walks of life continue shelling out on justice while keeping their lips sealed, justice will bear a very close resemblance to the oldest profession.

For Yu, it’s the anticrisis adventure that brought home the truth: Being a silent observer doesn’t pay.

Lutsenko Goes On
Interior Minister Resists Rada’s Furlough, Says Constitution on His Side

One of the three untouchables in the Yanukovych Cabinet, Interior Minister Lutsenko has ignored a parliamentary bid to temporarily relieve him of his duties.
An investigation commission has been set up in the Anticrisis-controlled Rada to conduct a probe into his activities.

With the backing of President Yushchenko and Constitutional lawyers, the besieged Minister has stood his ground. It is still unclear whether the three ministers (Interior, Exterior, and Defense) will quit on their own volition, leaving the Yanuke Cabinet to its own devices.

Why mess with Lutsenko, anyway? There's no explanation other than he must have been a real pain in the ass for the immaculate region whose identity, for reasons of confidentiality, will remain undisclosed.

Building a Better Borat

Sacha Baron Cohen's bully behavior will hit the screen shortly. True, this cultural comedian has made a career out of carpet bombing, not sharp shooting. However, given his disapproval rating, he still can be a positive force.

What do the filthy rich Genghis Khans on the Eurasian Street share with the ethnocentric Cartmans on both sides of the Atlantic? They all need a cultural education.

Of course, Sacha’s career is his to make. But, hypothetically speaking, if he ever chooses to venture beyond his spicier replica of South Park — for “make benefit” of humanity — he needs to do several things. And here's the roadmap:

• enhance his CQ (cultural intelligence)
• eliminate grossly inaccurate, inconsistent, and offensive content
• equip his character with traits that would reposition him from an agent provocateur to an agent of change
• enrage the regimes, not the rank and file
• entertain, engage, educate

These add-ons would help him strike a balance between his provocative value and, let’s say, his “perestroika 2” value. (By all means, his character could do better culturally than Rambo!)

I'm not talking about outright clientitis, such as that found in the U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship. I'm talking about creative cultural ambassadorship — building bridges, not burning them.

With globalization on the march, the West often takes too many things for granted. The truth is, different cultures still react to humor differently, especially if it’s black humor. Take the case of the Danish cartoons and the Vatican’s pontifications on Islam. Stereotyped, culturally irresponsible depictions of the developing world create humor on one side and hostility on the other. They entertain Western audiences only at the expense of fueling extremism and alienating the cultures depicted. On neither side of the twisted window do good things really happen. And one can’t get away with cultural murder in the global village.

By now, it appears that Astana’s angry backlash, followed by a public relations mobilization, has softened to a cooperative approach. Concerned with its image among Western investors and policy makers, the Nazarbayev regime has made moves to befriend the comedian, inviting him on a see-for-yourself trip to Kazakhstan. Because anger amounts to an acceptance of fault, the Nazarbayev regime has put on a smile, effectively telling Sacha that he is barking up the wrong tree.

Once again, the idea is not to have Borat castrated in politically correct terms. The idea is to have a character like Lt. Frank Drebin (Leslie Nielsen) from the Naked Gun series, or a culturally-savvy performer like "Weird Al" Yankovic. The idea is to spread democracy through a principle immortalized in Aesop's fable “The Wind and the Sun.”

That’s the only way the sun of Westernization can rise over Eurasia, extending the blessings of civilization not just to the post-Soviet sultans but to the subjects as well.

Lastly, of the 15,300,000 people that make up Kazakhstan’s population, an estimated 550,000 are of Ukrainian descent.

Hurricane Yuliya Makes Landfall on Energy Mogul

In a heated talk show on Channel 1+1, Ukraine’s unemployed PM and re-employed Energy Minister pulled each other’s hair.

Armed with stacks of confidential papers, Yuliya Tymoshenko and Yuriy Boiko staged a revelations-packed duel that kept the audience guessing as to whose side carried more truth.

Since no polygraph tests were taken in the studio, the X-Files catchphrase “The truth is out there” might be useful in describing the combatants’ credentials.
Still, most would agree that, on the battlefield, Tymo scored more points.
Whether it was the allegations she made or the finesse with which she played the heartstrings of her fans, it was Boiko who got his balls busted.

Sure, he went over her past dealings with the now extinct EESU gas trading empire she owned, but that was hardly anything new. (The most popular adage holds that, as PM, she wrote off some UAH 8 bn worth of EESU debt.)
What was new? The Gas Princess proudly produced the minutes of a RosUkrEnergo AG meeting dating back to 2004, which linked Boiko,then CEO of Naftohaz to the management of that secretive company.

Few experts would reject out of hand the proposition that Tymo may have skeletons in her closet. It is equally certain that, taking the West as a yardstick — with the exception of Hungary and Israel — any allegations of this magnitude regarding officeholders should be followed by their immediate resignation. Nothing of the kind transpired in Ukraine.

And that’s the distance our home-grown Western integrators should keep in mind.

The Historian of My Heart

Слава Україні! East and West together!:)

Now that we’ve exchanged our brief family histories, it turns out we have a lot in common, both geographically and culturally. Not only do we have our roots in neighboring oblasts, but we also have our minds on neighboring wavelengths.
Your fotopages.com collection is fantastic, and I mean both ethnographic and personal sections;)! May Julija acquire the best of character traits her namesake has:)!

Pidhajtsi and Korets share similar landscapes and architectures. I tried locating Pidhajtsi (Підхайці?) on the map, but I guess I need your help:)

By the way, ages ago, I visited Riga and Jurmala (1990), and I absolutely loved it. The Dome Cathedral and St. Peter’s Tower; Jurmala’s amber beaches and aromatic pine forests… My friend’s sister lives there. How lucky the Balts were not to have “applied” for Soviet citizenship as early as we Ukrainians did.

Thank God, Korets, my paternal grandparents’ native town, belonged to a different country in 1932-33. The Holodomor was virtually unheard of there.
Vasyl, my maternal grandafather, nearly starved as a teenager in Holodomor-stricken Kupyansk, Kharkiv oblast. Of course, he always considered it nothing but a famine.

However, “knowing” the system from the inside, grandpa was open to alternative sources of information. His retirement before the dawn of the perestroika freed up time for him to keep abreast of current events.

And he cherished his “freedom of information.” After receiving his daily “Big Brother” rations in the Soviet evening news, he would go on a “night patrol,” a ritual I’ll never forget. Sealed in his room, he would spend an hour or two glued to an antique radio, trying to sort through the heavily jammed VOA, RFE/RL, and BBC broadcasts. These he called “alien voices” (ворожі голоси). Nevertheless, they must have held certain information value even for a card-carrying communist like him.

Mariya, my paternal grandmother, had an entrepreneurial streak in her. Despite a series of close-shave ОБХСС experiences, she stuck to her guns. (In those days, as you know, small business could translate into big jailtime.)

So, being the ball of fire that she was, she would storm the flea market to make the “Polish connection.” The Poles shuttled merchandise in and out of Ukraine, trading low-quality jeans, tape recorders, and bubble gum for Soviet-made home appliances, certain food items, and medications. Grandma did her share of strengthening trade relations. She would swap a few kilos of sugar for a pack of bubble gum, and that transaction meant the world to me.

Against a background of grave supply shortages in the USSR, bubble gum was the elixir of happiness for kids. It was a must-have attribute of Western civilization — the delicious genome of compassionate capitalism about to transplant itself into the stagnating Soviet system, so we thought. Back in the late 80s Kyiv, we kids had our “quality circles.” During these street forums we fervently discussed (the) Ukraine’s prospects of reaching America’s living standards. As funny as it sounds today, our most conservative forecast put us at 15 years away from Easy Street.

Born into a family of intelligentsia, I’ve been literate since the age of 4. My parents subscribed to a stack of papers, among them a carefully combed foreign press digest called Za Rubezhom (abroad). Though not exactly a child prodigy, by the age of 8, I had already gotten hold of the press in the house and had been vaguely conversant in global and local developments.

So, come November 1988, I “voted” Dukakis:) In spring 1989, I became one of the three top students in class to be promoted to the rank of pioneer, the Soviet equivalent of a boy scout. However, my loyalty to the Soviet regime was flailing, and so was the Soviet regime itself.

In spring 1989, I observed my first Rukh rally, and it was fun. That same year, I jumpstarted my English studies.

OK, enough:)! Oh my, why am I such a sucker for bucolic, pre-Kravchuk/Kuchma Ukraine? The retro/introspective dimension of my personality must have cultivated a sharpened sense of lost opportunities and cultural belonging. And I guess I should “blame” my dad for it. Listening to the full gamut of his counter-mainstream, colorful, high-octane WWII bedtime stories shaped me into the historian of my heart.

Anyway, I have friends here in Kyiv who are thoroughly addicted to western Ukraine. I myself plan to spend a few days in wintertime Korets.

Your public relations advice had me thinking. I started out almost a year ago, unsure about my involvement in the blogosphere.

All I wanted to do was write something big and beautiful so I could climb on top of it and say, “Hey! Look at me, I’m a smart guy and I speak idiomatic English!”
I hungered for feedback which I could use as a reference for employment purposes. That’s how I thought up this narcissistic URL of mine.

Now, where do I want to go with this material I’ve compiled? Do I want to continue in low-profile, aloof mode or do I want to go public, make myself blogger-friendly?

You’re 100 percent right. If I pick the latter strategy, I will need to create a friends section and spread the word blog-to-blog. Of course, I know the tradecraft:)

As you noticed, I’ve rebranded my blog to make it more communicative, succinct, and catchy. No, I haven’t seen "Syriana" yet, but I’ve already IMDBed it and I’d love to see it.

My primary concern about blogging is behavioral. You see, in my cyberlife, I’ve experienced symptoms similar to pathological gambling. When someone attacks me online, I just won’t stop until I get it off my chest, no matter how much time and effort it takes.

Given my occasional writer’s block, time management can become a joke. Here’s a case point. In March, I spotted two angry Ukrainophobes on Orangeukraine.squarespace.com and “enrolled” them in my history class. By initially mistaking me for Taras Kuzio, they took my enthusiasm to another level. I would revel in my status for weeks before finally revealing my true identity. In fact, the first guy who had cheered me up with the Kuzio hypothesis was DLW, my first and frequent reader. I want to thank him once again for the much-desired ego boost:)

And as for my ad hominem-prone “students,” there was no way I could quit lecturing until I hit them fair and square with the facts.

Unnerved by my blogorrhea, the blog owner probably blew a fuse and stopped publishing my comments. At that point, I felt sorry for myself, thinking, “Man, how could I be so damn attention-seeking?”

Since Ukraine is not Russia, as Kuchma put it in his ghostwritten “Україна – не Росія” bestseller, English is my third language:) While in high school and college I also spoke basic French and Spanish. (Not anymore.)

I consider myself a linguistic fundamentalist. English is my pride and joy. I won two bronze and one silver medal in districtwide English contests 1992-94. (District population: 300,000.) After failing the last stage of the 95’ FSA exchange program contest — for reasons still unclear to me — I avenged my hematomic ego by taking my business elsewhere. In fall 1995, I became a member of the America House Library. The rest is history.

Just one more boastful self-report here. When I’m in the right mood, I speak English with an accent so astoundingly American you wouldn’t know the difference.

That said, it goes without saying that near-native English speakers like me should know their limitations. That’s the only way we can push them.

Thank you for being a source of great encouragement in my endeavors. Do zustrichi v efiri:)!

Gone with the Nordic Wind
Yushchenko’s “EUro Party 2006” No Great Shakes

Except for Yushchenko’s crisp response to the Putin doctrine, the Ukraine-EU summit became just another talkathon typical of the Kuchma era.

No wonder, if we take into account his coalition capers, his newfound burden of multivectorism, and his acceptance of the dirty gas discount. The soiled political outfit in which he traveled to Helsinki made it extremely difficult for Ukraine to command credibility in the eyes of the Eurocrats.

As far as 2006 is concerned, President Yushchenko has exhausted his “give them something to believe in” list. So much for the guy who “walks the talk” on the WTO/NATO/EU.

The self-inflicted blow of the “Big in Helsinki” experience should have him rethink his ways. Or does he need a Borat-like figure to shake him up?

As long as he takes himself too seriously while not being serious about what he does, the Nordic wind will not subside.

Reg MPs Post Bail for Hacker

Somewhere outside the media’s current fixation on gas, there’s a story that merits attention.

A hacker ring that specialized in credit card forgery and cyber crime appears to have had well-connected talent on board.

With $4 mn worth of “business” over a period of two years, seven members will stand trial shortly and two remain at large, namely Andrew Kravchenko and Andrew Lazarev.

So where’s the fun? According to Gpu-ua.info, Dmytro Golubov, a resident of Odesa, was released on a 30,000 hryvnia bail posted by PRU MPs Volodymyr Demyokhin and Volodymyr Makeyenko.

Let’s pause to think for a moment. What in the world would motivate sensible politicians to risk their reputation?

Unfortunately, the source offers no comments from the MPs themselves.

Needless to say, if seized upon by the Western media, this “don’t ask, don’t tell” situation would create a fallout of adverse proportions for the Regions Party. Considering the blue oligarchs’ demand for Western credits as well as their IPO ambitions, it could become, if not actionable knowledge, at least food for thought.

Do PRU strategists believe that public relationships with back-door professionals open the doors of the world’s top financial institutions?

WTOeful Yushchenko Hits Helsinki

Now that Ukraine has locked in the $130 rate for 2007, witness the reloading of WTO/Euro optimism. That’s the lip-service message President Yushchenko will bring to the EU-Ukraine summit in Helsinki.

Last year, Yushchenko, the most vocal supporter of WTO entry, saw his country fail the entry exams. This year, given the conspicuous discount reflected in the $130 price tag, Ukraine’s prospects appear even more remote. From what can be observed, the only way Ukraine could become a member is by refusing the discount, which seems highly unlikely.

Surprisingly, just when the clouds started closing in the WTO won another top-level convert in Ukraine. Speaker Moroz has repeatedly expressed confidence that Ukraine, currently some 21 bills away from the WTO entry requirements, will make it by year end.

Roman Shpek, Ukraine’s envoy to the EU, believes that a free trade agreement with the EU can be signed prior to accession, provided the required legislation has been passed. Well, that’s the most realistic EUresult we should expect this year.

A Fradk-Off or Just a Façade?
Shortly after Fradkov’s departure, Yushchenko rebuked the Russian PM’s suggestions of synchronized WTO accession, saying that Ukraine and Russia should seek entry out on their own. He added that Ukraine would seek no advantage over Russia. Well, there’s no advantage to speak of. Sold out.

Russian Black Sea Fleet to Protect Ukraine from Ukrainians?
The Putin doctrine has had another public relations twist. Speaking at a press conference, Puttie offered the Russian Black Sea Fleet Ukraine as a perennial shield to protect Ukraine from outside meddling. (Mr. Putin, in case you haven’t noticed, by being so overprotective, you’ve just won yourself the Best Meddler Award.)

But wait until you hear this one. On the issue of the Crimea, Puttie volunteered the Russian experience in ethnic conflict resolution. What exactly did he allude to? The massacre in Chechnya? Or Russian multiculturalism, as applied to Georgia, for instance?

That’s how the $130 price tag smells, and it smells all the way to Helsinki.
Despite Ukraine’s strong human rights progress, the ladies and gentlemen he will be seeing there will probably do their own thinking.

They have every reason to question the sincerity of a man whose party has suffered from acute loss of political orientation, has approval ratings of about 9 percent and is led buy a man with a nonexistent sense of humor.

Korets: My Second Home

Thank you so much for reading my blog, Stefan:)!

Now I know this place is not as lonely as it sometimes feels.

During my three-day getaway to the countryside last week I had a wonderful opportunity to do some soul-searching and to reconnect with the cultural soul of Ukraine.

I was born in Kyiv, then capital of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine, in 1980 — a year that marked the beginning of the end. You know how the story goes: The Soviets invade Afghanistan, Washington boycotts the Moscow Olympic Games, and Reagan gets elected.

While rampant Russification in Kyiv rooted out all things Ukrainian, I spent every summer in Korets, Rivne oblast, where my grandparents lived. And it was there that my appreciation for Ukrainian culture sprang.

I always think of my grandparents as a sociocultural microcosm of Ukraine.

Mother’s parents come from Kharkiv oblast. Grandpa Vasyl, whose lifespan perfectly matches that of the Soviet regime (1917-1991), had a checkered career: NKVD officer, head of a kolhosp, insurance agent. Before his assignment to western Ukraine, he fought the Japanese in Chiang Kai-shek's China.

Still, in the twilight of his life, he lost his faith in the system and spoke openly about it. He died in the local hospital, just a few months before Ukraine declared its independence.

He could have lived longer, had it not been for negligence and medical supply shortages. We checked him into an organization that reflected the general state of affairs in the country. It was no longer the country whose socialist fabric he had worshipped. And there was no turning back.

Fifteen years after he passed away, grandma Halyna, who is 86, keeps herself updated in current events and can even be argued with.

Father’s parents — mother and step-father, to be precise — were a totally different crowd. Both deceased now, they provided food supplies and lodging for banderivtsi. Grandma Mariya barely escaped execution by the Germans.

Born in the first month of the occupation, my father still recalls how the Germans gunned down Jews and hanged banderivtsi. After the Germans retreated and the Soviets marched in, one of the banderivitsi secretly visiting their house proudly showed them a trophy gun which, as he claimed, had belonged to agent Kuznetsov. This legendary Soviet mole assassinated a cadre of high-ranking Germans in Rivne, then capital of Reich Kommissariat Ukraine.

The only problem was he worked for an agency far more repressive than the Gestapo.

So, you could say, my parents built themselves a Romeo-and-Juliet type of family. What set them apart from urban Soviet mainstream? They never unlearned Ukrainian, the language their parents spoke.

I have lots of friends in Korets, some of them members of the local NSNU chapter. We all share disappointment about the NSNU top brass.

This 800-year-old town of 8,000 I call my second home. Korets has a hallmark — a ruined castle situated on the rock overlooking the Korchik river. Magnificent! It’s this landscape that makes Korets the quintessence of small-town western Ukraine.

Vestiges of Polish and Jewish cultures can be found in the two old cemeteries on the town’s outskirts.

Hundreds, if not thousands, Koretsians are toiling as migrant workers in the EU and Russia. Yet, despite the potent forces globalization at work in Korets, some things are still the way they used to be when I was a kid.

Take courtship customs, for instance. Boy and girl go to disco, just like they do anywhere else in the world. But if it gets serious, boy will send his parents on a mission to get approval from girl’s parents.

That’s how Korets helps me recharge my batteries. It helps me look forward to the future with hope and confidence.

Give It To Me, Baby!
Gas @ $130 for FY 2007

Glory to the great gas-giving nation of Russia! The Ukrainian economy will make it through next year!

Despite a prior statement to the contrary, Fradkov and Yanukovych apparently did discuss gas during their Tuesday meeting. The new alleged offering: $130 per 1000 cubic meters, down from the previously forecast $135.

Why sell at a discount? Now here comes the punch line. Russia wants its sons to stay in charge, and is willing to back them with humanitarian aid.

This also implies that, with Yushchenko’s silent approval, Kyiv and Moscow have reached an understanding on the issue of Ukraine’s WTO and NATO accession. Ukraine will hold its horses, or to be more precise, will allow itself to be held in the missionary position, right?

Well, not the worst price, if we take a look around, as some might argue. But how does this paid deceleration relate to Yushchenko? It pulls the rug from under miles of deceptive $95/5 rhetoric Yushchenko and his gas baron Ivchenko have indulged in.

Undoubtedly, Ukraine’s employability in the WTO and NATO can be seriously restricted if the country’s industry and the public sector remain Europe’s most energy inefficient.

Some relief comes from the fact that the modernization movement is sweeping Ukraine’s industrial giants. IPO-bound SCM and ISD have already beaten a path to the world’s financial markets.

The big question, of course, is whether we common folks should pay for it with our geopolitical and economic liberties?

Reinvention or Retardation?
NSNU Convention Goes on Three-Week Recess

Following a harsh opening address by the honorable Chairman Yushchenko, Snoozers called it a day, leaving a huge time frame for behind-the-scenes politicking to do its work. Experts vary on the outcome. Will there be a revolution within a revolution or will the whole thing continue to rot?

Yushchenko’s grading rampage is long overdue, and so is his self-appraisal. It didn’t take two years for NSNU to slide from the top of the class to the definition of mediocrity.

Yushchenko Sux! Yushchenko Sux! Yushchenko Sux! Sux! Sux!
Remember the theme song of Maidan? (“Razom Nas Bahato”) Of course, back then it was tak, instead of sux, but you already got the idea. So, the biggest joke around Maidan today is: “2009. Dear friends, meet Victor Yushchenko, the PRU contender for the presidency.”

On the eve of Maidan second anniversary, Yushchenko presides over a party that closely resembles the Communist Party of the Soviet Union circa 1989. Not only did this apparatchik-infested garage flunk the parliamentary race, but it also made an outrageous effort to sell its soul for scrap to Donbas, without getting its asking price.

Fairly good at speechifying, Yushchenko is bad at concealing his fragile ego, or so it appears. No other character trait more aptly betrays his leadership failure. Guess what? Rather than waiting for an incoming earful of criticism from fellow Snoozers, he simply disappeared into thin air immediately after the sermon.

Katerynchuk Misses His Fluke
The soul of the reformist faction should call October 21, 2006 his Lost Opportunity Day. Despite half the assembly chanting his name, there wasn’t much of a response from the hero himself. He never took control. He should have taken to the stage and said something like, “Come with me if you want to live.” He didn’t. The lyubi druzi won. As the delegates dispersed, one could probably see Mr. Bezsmertny laughing his ass off at what a pussy you are.

Fradk Off?
Visiting Russian PM Mikhail Fradkov has said that the gas issue will not be on the agenda. The leave-me-alone statement came amid widespread concern that the anticrisis coalition may be willing to bargain away some of Ukraine’s national interests. What are they? Accession to the WTO and NATO, as some sources indicate. What can’t our cash-strapped industrialists do in exchange for measured gas price increases?

Ukrainize!
The fifteen years of Ukraine’s independence have finally convinced State that Ukraine and the international community is linguistically better served with Kyiv, the Ukrainian version, rather than with Kiev, the Russian version. It’s never too late to change your mind! Keep up the good work, Condi.

Tymophobia a Theme in NSNU’s Opposition Behavior

Contrary to what Tymoptimists had expected, the separation of the Yanushchenko conjoined twins, deeply mourned by both, has not facilitated even a mild recovery for the Orange Revolution.

So far, all those childish Valentines with which Tymoshenko has bombarded NSNU’s ward have been treated as spam. Instead, NSNU has launched its “European Ukraine” pet project, essentially a political asylum for second-class parties like Pora, PRP, HDS, etc. No such invitation has been extended to BYuT.

Apparently, Saber Toothed Snoozers depend on the ice age for their survival. Whereas NSNU considers itself to be a right-of-center icon of Europeanness, it looks on BYuT as a left-of-center geopolitical mobile circus, and an incorrigibly populist one. For them, Tymo carries the badge of multivectorism, thanks to her alleged hush-hush visits to Russia. She may deny it, but her party’s roster is indeed overpopulated by petty oligarchs. These BYuTiful people, some of which have already walked away on her, had to pay hefty subscription fees to get in and are now uncomfortable with their opposition lot, since it’s not what they bargained for.

In fact, the same syndrome has evidenced itself in NSNU, as it used a similar technique in building its roster. That’s how atavistic denizens of the Kuchma regime have penetrated both Orange camps.

When blasting Tymoshenko on populism, apparatchik Bezsmertny somehow forgets the populist cross his patron Yushchenko bore back in 2004, but never delivered.

Historians with a selective memory should at least reevaluate their academic credentials. Before giving Tymo the cold shoulder, they should file a progress report on their unspoken “No Thug Left Behind Bars” policy, with a registry of prisonless gangsters in this country attached. (“Бандити сидітимуть в тюрмах.”) Or how about a “Righteous Rich” catalogue of those rare noblesse oblige species, so we poor folks could worship them? (“Багаті допоможуть бідним.”)

Who’s the Best Opp?
At a time when Yanukovych Republicans are singing paens to the West in Washington Post placements, NSNU’s interpretation of Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” also know as the EU anthem, could be dubbed the “Orange Curtain.”

Needless to say, this intra-opposition Cold War weakens both parties and plays into the hands of Regs. Yushchenko has a long way to go to start making sense again. What do you make of his plans to step down as the Moses of NSNU? Should we expect a council shakeup? Hopefully, the upcoming NSNU convention will clear some things up.

Even with fresh blood now circulating on Bankova, the rejuvenation of the flatliner Yushchenko has become into a falcon watching every move Yanukovych makes will not happen overnight.

Guaranteed, they have their ideological differences, but synergy works better than solo. Yet both have a chance to prove their love for taxpayers by voluntarily curtailing their parliamentary golden parachutes.

Regardless of how her love and hate relationship with NSNU will proceed, it’s opposition that puts the O in Tymo.

Happy Birthday, Mr. President

Anna Politkovskaya (née Mazepa)


1958-2006

RIP

friend of the free world,

arch-enemy of the Putin regime,

daughter of the Ukrainian people,

and one of the countless gunned down, poisoned, butchered, smothered, or “disappeared” people who had the guts and intelligence not to keep their mouths shut in a war led by post-Soviet tsars against their people.

Orgy Over: NSNU Pulls Out

We have a pulse! After a near-death political experience of speeding through a tunnel of scorpionic turf wars and disgusting extramarital affairs, NSNU has shown signs of returning to life. As of the evening of Oct 4, 2004, NSNU announced its withdrawal from the enlargement talks to assume an opposition role with regard to the PRU-SPU-CPU coalition. NSNU also vowed to recall its share of ministers nesting in the coalition since August.

Note: Due to their special status in charting EU-NATO integration policy and constitutional immunity from coalition considerations, Defense and Foreign ministers will probably stay put. Short of the latter two, whoever refuses to follow this instruction will be purged from the party.

In Ukraine’s diametrically opposed geometry of electoral sympathies, of which all parties had tried to remain mindful, yesterday’s gymnastic event achieved some semblance of emancipation from the prodigal sabbatical that had blighted NSNU’s career for months.

It’s not everyday that you flip on your TV to the splendid scene of Yushchenko’s legion having its chakras flung wide open and turning its face back toward the people.

Opposites Attract?
Not this fall. The final failure in fine-tuning two divergent agendas has resulted in the Regs’ Zen-like patience and AVN-style sex appeal being wasted all for naught. What a déjà vu! Fall 2006 brings the Orange guys together back again together under what may eventually mushroom into an opposition umbrella.

However, NSNU fans should not read much pathos into the event. Pragmatism offers a far better perspective. Observing the coalition behave like a bull in a china store must have knocked some sense into NSNU fence-sitters. It doesn’t take a PET-scan to realize what happened. There came a precious moment when they did the math and saw more advantages to jumping back to their own side, rather than seek humiliating accommodations. The realization that being on the wrong side may wipe them off the map in the next election surely has kept their blood pressure sky-high.

Winter will put the coalition to the test. PRU office holders are facing a whole Himalayas of chilling issues in the public sector. Chief among them: making utilities affordable and keeping the infrastructure well shaped and supplied and throughout the subzero season. If Regs are to make good on their promise of “Better Living Today,” they should roll up their sleeves. But whenever they try, all we see are their Vacheron Constantin watches, to the tune of the annual remuneration that we as taxpayers as have to make available to them. No way are they meeting their PR sales quota. Recent polls suggest the Yanukovych Cabinet has not added a penny to Ukrainians’ livelihood. They’ve probably discovered that underneath the surface “Better Living Today” has a doppelganger called “Death and Decay.”

Got Gas?
“Vote Yanukovych, and voilà! Russia gives you all the gas in the world" My dear Eastern friend, if that’s how your brain worked this spring, prepare for cryogenic therapy this winter.

It’s safe to conclude that no belly-kissing was performed on Yanukovych during his secret Moscow voyages. That poor little boy captured by the camera remains the only one to date.

The Kremlin’s policy of pricing escalationism appears nonnegotiable. SCM needs gas? On your own dime, gentlemen. Royally pissed about the NSNaU revoir, the proffessor posse has left the door open.

People define themselves by who they aren’t, a rule that hardly detracts from the value of team play. If NSNU retracts its “bridges burned” position, it will need the FBI’s finest team of DNA experts to id its political corpse.

When Diamonds Are a Girl’s Worst Friends
Because the 2007 budget proposal, if not amended, promises little in way of binge eating for the little man, Yushchenko have said that he will veto it. Meanwhile, a battle flared up in the Rada over the current MP benefits program that grants each MP with a panoply of perks such as a title to a Kyiv apartment worth upwards of half a million dollars.

Yuliya Tymoshenko, one of the most outspoken critics of the program, became the woman of the day. Interestingly enough, as the local face of Luis Vuitton, she has frequently drawn flak for her affluenza-stricken outfits. That’s why could not escape being the target of an ad hominem attack. PRU heavyweight Yevhen Kushnarev attempted to thwart her social responsibility drive by speculating that the necklace she was wearing on that day alone could sustain an average Ukrainian family for five years.

A gleeful Tymo rushed to the rostrum to submit her belongings for evaluation, which the press corps eagerly did. Soon, it turned out Mr. Kushnarev had made a seriously flawed assessment.

The jewellery expert consulted by the press corps estimated the book value of the necklace to be in the neighbourhood of $200, this being a costume jewellery item presumably made in the United Arab Emirates. Of course, its post-evaluation publicity-laden market value may have climbed hundredfold. The moral of the story: A self-enforced dress code can save you from a public relations disaster.

Azaroff with Attitude, or Regionomics Rules!
“Better Living Today” Starts with a “Better” Budget

Speaking in Parliament last week, Finance Minister Mykola Azarov sliced and diced a diet budget proposal from Chef Viktor Yanukovych. Neither NSNU nor BYuT displayed much appetite. “That’s one hell of a budget for a weight watcher like me,” the Evita Peron of Ukrainian politics probably thought, as she sat through the PowerPoint presentation that had her on the verge of vomiting.

After reading the menu between the lines, Snoozers sounded the alarms on the strange and sudden death of a maternity benefit program. One of Yushchenko’s “populist” policies, the program has pledged some $1,700 in several installments to mothers of new-born babies. Because hundreds of thousands of families have relied on it to cover some of the expenses, a change in government policy could affect procreation decisions nationwide. What could be more anti-democratic in a low-income country slowly recovering form a decade of depopulation?

Since the barren 90s, when the birth of Oligarchs Inc instituted abusive patterns of stratification for the rest of the country, Ukraine has shed some 5 million of its population. Today’s demographic resurgence, while far from a baby boom, raises hope that population growth will finally break even.

With his budgeting behavior now compromised, Azaroff threw a graceful wish-you-well cover-up. He smiled on the distressed gene pool, proudly saying that the program will continue unscathed. He then explained that the funding criteria reflected in the proposal simply restricted the program’s eligibility to financially disadvantaged applicants.

Too many hearts in this country refuse to melt when social responsibility crawls into the Regionalists rhetoric. A little bureaucratization here and there — and you will have to carry a second baby full term before you collect these much-needed monies for your first one.

The good news: Extraclinical research indicates that fear of negative publicity sometimes works to destroy other potent fears. The experience of being caught red-handed can trigger an adrenaline response that partially inhibits the panic welfarephobic syndrome, a state of acute anxiety known to affect top-ranking officials. It occurs when the patient believes that current levels of government spending may eat into the profit margins of the interest group he or she represents.

Humor aside, the mind boggles at the thought of whatever esoteric budget pranks may be buried well below the public’s immediate grasp.
Key budget projections:
Revenues.........................................................UAH 180 bn
Expenditures…...............................................UAH 200 bn
Budget deficit, as a percentage of GDP……..2.55 percent
GDP growth………………………………….6.5 percent
Inflation, annual……………………………...7.5 percent
Loans, domestic ……………………………..USD 1 bn
Loans, foreign………………………………..USD 10 bn

Not an entirely self-reliant budget, isn’t it?

The Old Deal, or the New Ordeal
In dire need of maintaining high visibility of activity, Tymo approached the budget issue in the mood of cougar-like agility, intent on signing NSNU home cats to an opposition deal. She postulated that their shared indigestion of the budget proposal could become the basis for an allied BYuT-NSNU opposition. As an extension of this initiative, she called for a shadow government to be formed.

Championing the cause of scaling back the utility hike has benefited her employability. She even gets unsolicited offers! Yushchenko, for instance, has mentioned the possibility of appointing her to the NSC job. She had no immediate comment. (Go, go Tymo! You da bomb! But wait a minute, et tu BYuT? No, this can’t be true. Maybe the point is, you will create more opposition value by being inside the game? According to this line of reasoning, the sales pitch of the sensational would-be offer in question appears crystal clear. It invites you to exercise your biological imperative. By playing out your dominatrix fantasies on the scene, you will provide a Condi Rice-like counterweight for the shorthanded Yushchenko to stand up to Yanukovych.)

More seriously, Tymo’s protégé Mykola Tomenko has been shortlisted for the Speaker job. As for this courteous concession, less far-fetched than the previous scenario, it should not be confused with a mere giveaway. If confirmed, Tomenko will take some of the sting out of the lone ranger in her, and, most important, the act will solidify a reciprocity-based precedent to fall back on in case the government changes hands.

Attention public sector employees! Oligarchs Inc strikes again. Those of you who licked their lips for a New Deal-type of social contract from the Yanuke Cabinet, you have a dirty mind. This man Azaroff — you better read his lips. Not only does he speak horrible Ukrainian without feeling sorry for the linguistic Chernobyl he creates, but he also has a leg in tax collection. You got it right! Whether you work a nine to five job or run a small business, he’s out to trim a little fat off your pockets. Your ballooning incomes are a menace to Ukraine’s ramshackle industry! As you consume ever more conspicuously, thy poor neighbor, the oligarch, scrimps and saves for innovation. How dare you have a feast amid famine? This goes no further!

Get ready for a low-cholesterol diet next year. Your planned salary raises will be cut in half. Also waiting for you is a 2 percent increase in the payroll tax. There’s yet another trend at work here. FY 2007 Cabinet maintenance and administrative expenses will surge 47 percent. Hallelujah!

And, yes, it’s the economy stupid! A massive PR lobotomy involving an airborne assault of GOP-leaning talent — like the one that claimed you during the spring parliamentary campaign — doesn’t come for free. From now on, expect no more passionate overtures to the welfare state. Regs, who vowed to rid the land of poverty, are now busy reassessing their strategy with a view to bringing your middle-class aspirations to a plateau.

Yanuke the Ripper
“Live it to the fullest!” That’s the maxim of the old school of thought now repatriating itself to the upper tiers of government, skilled as it is in the art of Kuchmocracy. Intoxication with power regained by a stroke of dumb luck, or, rather, orange dumbness, sends sparks to Yanukovych’s eyes.

The corollary would be “Take whatever you can and run if you have to.” All this adds up to strategy that could go by the name of Yanuke the Ripper, or Regionomics, a strategy of reaping quick benefits before a possible coalition collapse. By no means does this imply outright embezzlement. Those days are gone. Sophistication is the word today. Put your men at the helm of a mammoth monopoly like Naftohaz, Ukrzaliznytsya, or Ukrtelekom — and you have cash flows running wild, straight into your hands, and in pretty legit ways.

Reaganomics v Regionomics
When matched against Regionomics in terms of serving private interests, Reaganomics pales by comparison. For all his worship of free market forces, for all the bruises inflicted on the welfare state, for all the unfair tax cuts and untold budget deficits, for all the excesses of deregulation and decentralization, the good ol’ Ronnie would never support Spanish as a second official language. For that matter, neither would the Spanish-speaking Dubya, nor even the soft-on-immigration Governator.

In contrast, Regs are conservatives in a sense that Reps aren’t. Regs are compassionate about conserving what communism created. That explains why many of them don’t care enough to learn Ukrainian. They exhibit little compassion for the victims of communism And what makes it even more funny, they are capitalists.

Aside from time and space constraints, it is motivational sets that keep Regionalists and Reaganites words apart. Whereas Reaganites had the Evil Empire to contend with, Regionalists have a closely-held, export-oriented commodity empire to take care of.

Despite the brand of supply-side economics firmly attached to it, Reaganomics arguably produced a host of demand-side effects. It did so through sexier defense budgets in an arms race that drained the economy out of the Evil Empire, whose Ukrainian share of industrial remnants is now possessed by proponents of Regionomics.

Regionomics therefore has more of a supply-side profile, something Regionomics doesn’t have. Cheap labor and natural resources — the key ingredients that go into the competitive advantage of Ukraine’s aged, energy-inefficient, low-tech industry — are more of a curse than a blessing. The heavy guns of post-Soviet industry will hardly keep Ukrainians’ lungs clean, nor will they churn much butter, economically speaking.

So, except maybe for the promise of better living for themselves, the promise-packed campaign Regs orbited with the expertise of GOP talent stands little chance of gaining escape velocity. This about wraps up the stellar conquest of “Better living today” for the rest of us.

Tax-Free Zones Get a Fresh Start, But Not Working Seniors
After lying fallow for a few years, tax-free zones are back in business. Finance Minister Azarov, a staunch advocate of these economic preserves, claims that tax-free zones have a history of cultivating oases of innovation in this country. If you find yourself at loss for recalling any quantum leaps in innovation, there’s another side to this story.

Gossipy pundits have long wagged their tongues over these oases being economic black holes for siphoning money out of the government in countless VAT crimes. They have also traced them as points of entry for smuggling billions of dollars worth of uncertified consumer goods and foodstuffs. If by and large what they say is true, then these “Silicon Valleys” incorporate a skunkworks of the shadowy economy that keep money and goods on a neverending joyride in and out of the country. Such core competencies fit them into the category of political fiefdoms. Exactly what cult of innovation do they belong to, Mr. Azarov?

Attention seniors who bring home a few extra hryvnyas worth of bacon! You can’t have too much of a good thing. Stay home and smell the happiness. Just where do you think the expression “death and taxes” came from?

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, you just became unwitting test subjects in somebody’s dirty little scheme.

All Is Not Quiet on Mount Olympus
By bouncing a sheaf of executive orders, Chief of Mischief Yanukovych may have amused himself, but he surely enraged Zeushchenko (pardon the portmanteau), who has every reason to be paranoid about losing his grip on power. “Just who the hell you think you are?” roared the prime deity in Ukraine’s pantheon of politics as he cast his thunderbolt.

This happened the day PRU legal eagles falsely instructed their patron that his refusal to countersign executive orders constitutes a veto policy. Once aware of having overstepped his authority, Yanukovych responded with pacifying gestures like “we’re in it together” and “there’s room for everyone.” However, he hasn’t pardoned the five oblast governors on his hit list, Yushchenko’s appointees, whose dismissal he has vigorously demanded.

On Wednesday, October 4, NSNU convenes to pass its final decision on whether or not to join the coalition. Its position: NSNU will settle down only if the coalition goes by the book, that is, by the Universal of National Unity.

Earlier, Speaker Moroz issued a love-it-or-leave statement, warning that unless NSNU joins, it has no place in the government. However, one caveat is in order. The Constitution says that, no matter what happens, the President retains his coalition-exempt share of Cabinet appointees, namely Ministers of Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs.

Tired of fighting his little town blues with routine acts of spraying canned pontifications on a weary public, President Yushchenko has set out to refashion this staff. It takes quite a bit of courage to sanitize his tabernacle of the lyubi druzi (beloved buddies), the two words that have become a cliché for the beehive of cronies he’s compiled around himself.

Recent staffing decisions have led some experts to believe that the President plans to “make a brand new start of it,” as Frank Sinatra put it in his “New York, New York.” The timing could not be more perfect. For the first time since the Orange Revolution, his approval ratings have plunged below Premier Yanukovych’s.

That’s why Yushchenko keeps delayering the lyubi druzi — in the hope of winning back some of the supporters he has alienated. Among others, the new wave of talent features former Emergency Management chief Viktor Baloha and former Economics Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Baloha made a name for himself when he stormed out of the then-almighty SDPU and took a load of followers with him. He has replaced Oleh Rybachuk as Chief of Staff. Well-connected in the pre-Revolution government, Yatsenuyk has earned praise for being one of the finest Young Turks in finance and is considered to be an asset to the economic section.

The change of the guard didn’t sop there. Spokeswoman Iryna Herashchenko, Yushchenko’s confidante of five years, stepped down in a move she described as the “passing of the baton. Iryna Vannikova, who has made a sterling career in news, took the baton.

The big question, of course, is whether changes in style will be matched by changes in substance. Unless improvements in public relations go hand in hand with improvements in policymaking, no improvement will be made overall. External decorum cannot substitute for internal dynamics.

Maidan Graffiti Comes to Grief?
Vice Premier Andriy Klyuev (PRU) has urged the Central Post Office, to have the relic of the Orange Revolution erased due to what he termed as politically incorrect, obscenity-laced content.

Taken under a protective glass covering since 2005, the graffiti has beautified the entrance columns of Maidan’s chief edifice. No wonder this vivid piece of history, located at the epicenter of the Orange Revolution, has horrified the likes of Mr. Klyuev and his Austria-based brother, foiled as they were by people power in 2004. And those who did this to them are now too traumatized to put up much resistance.

That’s why the second anniversary of Maidan may find a blank space in place of the bittersweet mementoes still dear to them.